Some scientists and groups pushing for aggressive cuts in the gases said the panel was much too conservative in some projections, particularly in assessing how
much melting of ice sheets might raise sea levels in the next 100 years.
Not exact matches
«The fact that a large portion
of the western flank
of the Greenland
ice sheet has become dark means that the
melt is up to five times as
much as if it was a brilliant snow surface.»
Their results show that East Greenland has been actively scoured by glacial
ice for
much of the last 7.5 million years — and indicate that the
ice sheet on this eastern flank
of the island has not completely
melted for long, if at all, in the past several million years.
Ullman said the level
of CO2 that helped trigger the
melting of the Laurentide
ice sheet was near the top
of pre-industrial measurements — though
much less than it is today.
Better estimates
of Pliocene sea levels will help geologists know how
much of the
ice sheets melted during that balmy era, Dowsett says, which may give us a glimpse
of our own climate future.
Not only is Greenland's
melting ice sheet adding huge amounts
of water to the oceans, it could also be unleashing 400,000 metric tons
of phosphorus every year — as
much as the mighty Mississippi River releases into the Gulf
of Mexico, according to a new study.
«Warming greater than 2 degrees Celsius above 19th - century levels is projected to be disruptive, reducing global agricultural productivity, causing widespread loss
of biodiversity and — if sustained over centuries —
melting much of the Greenland
ice sheet with ensuing rise in sea levels
of several meters,» the AGU declares in its first statement in four years on «Human Impacts on Climate.»
In the San Francisco Bay area, sea level rise alone could inundate an area
of between 50 and 410 square kilometres by 2100, depending both on how
much action is taken to limit further global warming and how fast the polar
ice sheets melt.
When the planet's big
ice sheets collapsed at the end
of the last
ice age, their
melting caused global sea levels to rise as
much as 100 meters in roughly 10,000 years, which is fast in geological time, Mann noted.
«Based on the UN climate panel's report on sea level rise, supplemented with an expert elicitation about the
melting of the
ice sheets, for example, how fast the
ice on Greenland and Antarctica will
melt while considering the regional changes in the gravitational field and land uplift, we have calculated how
much the sea will rise in Northern Europe,» explains Aslak Grinsted.
Shepherd said, though, that there still is still a lot
of uncertainty about how
much additional
melt in some locations
of the Greenland
ice sheet will actually be lost to the ocean.
A relatively small amount
of melting over a few decades, the authors say, will inexorably lead to the destabilization
of the entire
ice sheet and the rise
of global sea levels by as
much as 3 meters.
On its own, sea level rise could inundate between 50 and 410 square kilometres
of this area by 2100, depending on how
much is done to limit further global warming and how fast the polar
ice sheets melt.
The size
of the
ice sheet depends on how
much new snow accumulates and how
much of the existing
ice melts, she said.
Since so
much of the
ice sheet is grounded underwater, rising sea levels may have the effect
of lifting the
sheets, allowing more - and increasingly warmer - water underneath it, leading to further bottom
melting, more
ice shelf disintegration, accelerated glacial flow, and further sea level rise, and so on and on, another vicious cycle.
Faced by the loss
of so
much precious coastal land, it seems quite plausible that our descendants will resort to some kind
of mega-project to cool the planet and stop the
ice sheets melting.
A new paper in Nature Climate Change by Bamber and Aspinall attempts to untangle the thorny problem
of how quickly and how
much the
ice sheets of the world will
melt.
However, it's quite a different matter
melting a long - lived massive
ice sheet up to 1.5 km thick that covers over 70 %
of the land surface (as happened at the end
of the last glacial period), from
melting isolated and
much thinner
ice caps /
sheets that only cover about 11 %
of the land surface (i.e. present - day).»
The research published in Nature Communications found that in the past, when ocean temperatures around Antarctica became more layered - with a warm layer
of water below a cold surface layer -
ice sheets and glaciers
melted much faster than when the cool and warm layers mixed more easily.
Either the glaciers would have to flow into the ocean at unrealistic rates, or rapid
melting would have to be triggered over a
much larger area
of the
ice sheet than current evidence suggests.
When projecting how sea levels could rise over the coming centuries, one
of the most difficult factors for scientists to gauge is how
much of the Earth's vast
ice sheets will
melt, and how quickly.
Scientific knowledge input into process based models has
much improved, reducing uncertainty
of known science for some components
of sea - level rise (e.g. steric changes), but when considering other components (e.g.
ice melt from
ice sheets, terrestrial water contribution) science is still emerging, and uncertainties remain high.
Global
ice -
sheets are
melting at an increased rate; Arctic sea -
ice is disappearing
much faster than recently projected, and future sea - level rise is now expected to be
much higher than previously forecast, according to a new global scientific synthesis prepared by some
of the world's top climate scientists.
Finally, if a zero
melt day anomaly were to reflect
ice - free conditions, as you suggest then,
much of the southern and eastern portion
of the
ice sheet (blue - green areas in figure 1) would actually be exposed bedrock.
OCEANS RISING FAST, NEW STUDIES FIND
Melting ice could raise levels up to 3 feet by 2100, scientists say David Perlman, Chronicle Science Editor Friday, March 24, 2006 Glaciers and ice sheets on opposite ends of the Earth are melting faster than previously thought and could cause sea levels around the world to rise as much as three feet by the end of this century and 13 to 20 feet in coming centuries, scientists are reporting
Melting ice could raise levels up to 3 feet by 2100, scientists say David Perlman, Chronicle Science Editor Friday, March 24, 2006 Glaciers and
ice sheets on opposite ends
of the Earth are
melting faster than previously thought and could cause sea levels around the world to rise as much as three feet by the end of this century and 13 to 20 feet in coming centuries, scientists are reporting
melting faster than previously thought and could cause sea levels around the world to rise as
much as three feet by the end
of this century and 13 to 20 feet in coming centuries, scientists are reporting today.
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report did not specifically address these competing factors and essentially ignored the likelihood
of much more rapid
melting of Greenland and other land - based
ice sheets.
If our
ice sheets are going to change our sea level that
much, from its current rate
of melt, the
melt rate would have to increase exponentially in the future.
In this regard, I would observe that at least one important AGW effect, rising sea level, does not depend on a specific regional outcome so
much as on global mean T. (At least, I think this is so (because my understanding is that most
of the rise comes from lower density
of warmer water, not from
melting ice sheets — though again, not 100 % sure on this point)-RRB-.
They have taken the acceleration in
melting of the
ice sheets to be a constant, and extrapolated into the future century, Hansen has proposed a
much more threatening scenario where the rate
of icesheet disintegration increases exponentially, doubling every decade.
However, because they are partly submerged, their direct contribution to sea level rise is
much smaller than the contribution made by the
melting of an equivalent volume
of (land - based)
ice sheets.
Perhaps you're equating the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet (which IS
melting and disintegrating) with the whole
of Antarctica — a
much larger area,
much of which is not yet so affected by GW.
Re: T. Elifritz Due to the thermal inertia
of the Greenaland and Antarctic
ice sheets won't it be several millenia before they could completly
melt away even under conditions
much hotter than now?
Should the
ice sheet start to
melt in a serious way (i.e.
much more significantly than current indications suggest), then lowering
of the elevation
of the
ice sheet will induce more
melting simply because
of the effect
of the lapse rate (air being warmer closer to sea level due to pressure effects).
Many important questions
of environmental policy, however, involve inescapably uncertain outcomes... How
much global warming will it take to trigger the irreversible collapse and
melting of the Greenland
ice sheet?»
The West Antarctic
ice sheet would become unstable by the end
of the century, although it might take another 10,000 years to
melt the
much larger East Antarctic
sheet.
What scientists once thought was a fairly simple linear process — that is, a certain amount at the surface
of an
ice sheet melts each year, depending on the temperature — is now seen to be
much more complicated.
First, modification
of individual hurricanes would fall under the topic
of weather modification, rather than climate geoengineering; and second, there is not nearly as
much research on [hurricane modification] as on the possible effects
of climate geoengineering on slowing the
melting of ice sheets.
For example, conditions at the poles affect how
much heat is retained by the earth because
of the reflective properties
of ice and snow, the world's ocean circulation depends on sinking in polar regions, and
melting of the Antarctic and Greenland
ice sheets could have drastic effects on sea level.
Melting continental
ice sheets drove
much higher rates
of sea level rise than seen today, ranging from 10 to 40 + mm / year.
The
melting of Greenland's
ice sheet appears to be accelerating
of late, losing about four times as
much mass last year as it did a decade ago.
Over the long - term,
melting of the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet could yield as
much as 10 to 14 feet
of global average sea level rise, with local sea level rise varying considerably depending on land elevation trends, ocean currents and other factors.
Rather, the scientists don't know yet how
much of Greenland and the West Antarctic
ice sheets are going to
melt or how fast it'll happen.
Global warming may not affect sea levels, study finds — January 11, 2008 Excerpt: Excerpt: The most pessimistic predictions
of sea level rises as
ice sheets are
melted by global warming may have to be scaled back as a result
of an extraordinary discovery that
ice persisted when the Earth was
much hotter than today.
Examples; CO2 levels in the atmosphere correlate directly with human population (lots
of breathing) and thus population control can avoid climate change (hard to disprove)
Melting of the Artic
ice sheet is good as shipping route will become shorter and transportation costs
much less.
And this way, they also got the longest possible record, striking bedrock after seeing
ice that was 250,000 years old, the date
of the warm period before last, the one that
melted much of Greenland's
ice sheet.
If all
of Totten were to
melt, it would be enough to raise seas by around 11 to 13 feet — or about as
much as if half
of the entire Greenland
Ice Sheet went down.
According to the study, this is because
of the expansion
of warming waters, which caused as
much sea level rise from 2002 through 2014 as the
melting of all the glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets combined.
Either the glaciers would have to flow into the ocean at unrealistic rates, or rapid
melting would have to be triggered over a
much larger area
of the
ice sheet than current evidence suggests.
They based their findings on analysis
of the chemical isotopes locked in ancient
ice from the Weddell Sea embayment, and the evidence suggests that in the past, when polar waters became more stratified, the
ice sheets melted much more quickly.
RE: 4th Error -RCB- Poses an objection to the non-scientific term catastrophic [NOTE: Scientific «consensus» is often being used & / or implied in standard climate - change discourse - Yet Consensus is a Political Term - NOT a Scientific Term]- HOWEVER - When Jim Hansen, the IPCC & Al Gore, et - al - go from predicting 450 — 500 ppm CO2 to 800 — 1000ppm by the end
of the 21st century -LCB- said to the be highest atmospheric CO2 content in 20 — 30 Million YRS -RCB-; — & estimates for aver global temps by 21st century's end go from 2 * C to 6 * C to 10 * C; — & increased sea level estimates go from 10 - 20 cm to 50 - 60 cm to 1M — 2M -LCB- which would totally submerge the Maldives & partially so Bangladesh -RCB-; — predictions
of the total
melting of the Himalayan
Ice caps by 2050, near total melting of Greenland's ice sheet & partial melting of Antarctica's ice sheet before the 21st century's end; — massive crop failures; — more intense & frequent hurricane -LCB- ala Katrina -RCB- for much longer seasonal durations, etc, etc, etc... — IMO That's Sounds pretty damned CATASTROPHIC to
Ice caps by 2050, near total
melting of Greenland's
ice sheet & partial melting of Antarctica's ice sheet before the 21st century's end; — massive crop failures; — more intense & frequent hurricane -LCB- ala Katrina -RCB- for much longer seasonal durations, etc, etc, etc... — IMO That's Sounds pretty damned CATASTROPHIC to
ice sheet & partial
melting of Antarctica's
ice sheet before the 21st century's end; — massive crop failures; — more intense & frequent hurricane -LCB- ala Katrina -RCB- for much longer seasonal durations, etc, etc, etc... — IMO That's Sounds pretty damned CATASTROPHIC to
ice sheet before the 21st century's end; — massive crop failures; — more intense & frequent hurricane -LCB- ala Katrina -RCB- for
much longer seasonal durations, etc, etc, etc... — IMO That's Sounds pretty damned CATASTROPHIC to ME!