Then they used the climate models to simulate by how
much ocean heat content has risen since the 1970s.
Not exact matches
For as
much as atmospheric temperatures are rising, the amount of energy being absorbed by the planet is even more striking when one looks into the deep
oceans and the change in the global
heat content (Figure 4).
The increase in
ocean heat content is
much larger than any other store of energy in the Earth's
heat balance over the two periods 1961 to 2003 and 1993 to 2003, and accounts for more than 90 % of the possible increase in
heat content of the Earth system during these periods.
Thus, during an El - Nino,
much of the
heat content of the Indo - Pacific warm pool moves from being too deep for surface measurements to detect, to being spread out on the surface of the
ocean, where surface measurements can detect it.
However, the large - scale nature of
heat content variability, the similarity of the Levitus et al. (2005a) and the Ishii et al. (2006) analyses and new results showing a decrease in the global
heat content in a period with
much better data coverage (Lyman et al., 2006), gives confidence that there is substantial inter-decadal variability in global
ocean heat content.
The upper
ocean, which scientists know captures
much of the excess energy trapped in the atmosphere, also reached its largest
heat content on record in 2017, Arndt said.
Burt Armstrong @ 16, you are very
much on the right track, but think more in terms of accumulating
ocean heat content and rising sea surface temperatures.
With
ocean heat content, including the IPWP, running at record high levels (literally off the chart), how
much energy is released in this El Niño and how quickly it fills back in is of keen interest to me.
There has been that
much increase in
ocean heat content since 2000.)
The advantage of the
ocean heat content changes for detecting climate changes is that there is less noise than in the surface temperature record due to the weather that affects the atmospheric measurements, but that has
much less impact below the
ocean mixed layer.
4 W / m2 seems way too high; the
ocean heat content hasn't been increasing that
much (or am I getting my timescales mixed up?).
One thing I would have liked to see in the paper is a quantitative side - by - side comparison of sea - surface temperatures and upper
ocean heat content; all the paper says is that only «a small amount of cooling is observed at the surface, although
much less than the cooling at depth» though they do report that it is consistent with 2 - yr cooling SST trend — but again, no actual data analysis of the SST trend is reported.
Some people looked at parts of that work (for example, the lower right panel of Figure 1) and point out how the climate model
oceans show a smooth and pretty
much unbroken increase in
heat content over the historical period.
But if you google «noaa
ocean heat and salt
content» and compare the first two graphs («0 - 700m global
ocean heat content» versus «0 - 2000m global
ocean heat content») you will see that the sea SURFACE temperature is
much more reflective of what is going on in the atmosphere than the
oceans depths.
I don't know about all of you, but I do find that the uncertainty around e.g. the various issues related to
ocean heat content or issues regarding connecting the Argo float network to other data networks is SO
much better covered in Judith's bizarre and uniquely repetitive mischaracterizations of other scientists» comments, than by the published science and its critical review.
As it is, I don't care
much for the overly large focus on near - surface tropospheric temperatures, as most of our weather and climate is going to be based on
ocean dynamics and
ocean heat content.
For as
much as atmospheric temperatures are rising, the amount of energy being absorbed by the planet is even more striking when one looks into the deep
oceans and the change in the global
heat content (Figure 4).
The «rise rate of the
ocean heat content» is
much better explained by natural unforced variation.
According to the paper, «arguably,
ocean heat content — from the surface to the seafloor — might be a more appropriate measure of how
much our planet is warming.»
Using modern measurements of air temperature, incoming / outgoing radiation, and
ocean temperature /
heat content should provide
much more robust techniques of climate model validation.
Thus, we suggest that scientists and modelers who seek global warming signals should track how
much heat the
ocean is storing at any given time, termed global
ocean heat content (OHC), as well as sea level rise (SLR).
Ideally the zero point would be modulated by
ocean heat content and / or ssts, since it is the comparison between energy into the
oceans vs. energy radiated back out that determines warming or cooling, but we don't have
much historical ohc or sst data so a fixed zero point would seem to be the best that can be done.
SST's are often, but not always, better gauges for how
much heat is leaving the
ocean on the way to the atmosphere rather than how
much remains at depth to be measured as
ocean heat content.
Essentially, Huber and Knutti take the estimated global
heat content increase since 1850, calculate how
much of the increase is due to various estimated radiative forcings, and partition the increase between increasing
ocean heat content and outgoing longwave radiation.
I inferred from your statement that since the
heat capacity of the atmosphere is small compared to «say, the
oceans» that (a) it [the atmosphere] won't store
much energy, and (b) as such won't change the total «
heat content» of the Earth, and (c) as such won't change the Earth's temperature.
The pink shading represents simulations where greenhouse gas emissions and other human influences have been taken into account — these simulations do a
much better job at tracking temperatures and
ocean heat content globally and regionally.
However, the
much - adjusted NODC
ocean heat content data for the tropical Pacific (Figure 1) shows a decline in
ocean heat content since 2000, and the
ocean heat content for the Atlantic (Figure 2) has been flat since 2005.
Because you are fitting to look for a trend * after * selecting the data that looks flat, the real 95 % confidence interval of the trend in temperature (or
ocean heat content) over any of these intervals is
much larger than what you are presumably calculating.
Gavin, I think it would be worth adding to the post 1) the main reason why there was so
much doubt about the Lyman et al results (the unphysical melt amounts for 2003 - 5), 2) the expected role of GRACE in obtaining a reliable result, 3) the fact that the ARGOs don't measure the deep
oceans, and 4) that it's inappropriate to take the remaining ARGO data (shown in the Lyman et al correction to be essentially flat for the last two years) and draw any conclusions about
ocean heat content trends for that period.
A lot of the southern hemisphere started warming 5000 years ago which didn't have
much impact on Global «surface» but did on
ocean heat content.
Q3 - Does the difference between Tangaroa and Chelle et al imply that a change in DLR does not
heat the
ocean as
much as a similar change in DSR and, therefore, the earth's
heat content sensitivity is considerably less for DLR than DSR?
Living in the real world of a real country I am
much more concerned with what the 350 year temperature record is showing us, not the highly theoretical
ocean heat content of a poorly measured, medium with records stretching back barely a decade.
Given the
much larger size of the oean sink, even a small change in the size of this exchange could significantly impact atmospheric temperatures while being a trivial change in the
oceans heat content.
More frequent La Ninas and the negative phase of the PDO are the reason for the increased transfer of Global Warming contribution into the deeper
oceans in the last 15 years... This means previously the
oceans were not the receptor of as
much GW
heat content?
Over the longer term the accuracy is better, there is less wiggle room, and in fact we are able to balance out the energy flows — i.e. the increase in
ocean heat content is pretty
much what is expected from the anticipated radiative imbalance (see the figure).
I don't prefer one over the other as an intrinsic metric (they provide two different pieces of information), but I find the
ocean heat content data to be a
much less mature data set than the surface temperature data set.
Actually, I have concluded that
ocean heat content is a
much better metric to diagnose climate system
heat changes (i.e. «global warming») than the surface temperature trends.
Roger Pielke Sr. has often stated that
ocean heat content is a
much better metric for climate change than surface temperature.
Thus in terms of impacts the problem is surface warming — which is described
much better by actually measuring surface temperatures rather than total
ocean heat content.
Ocean heat content from the Argo buoys do not get
much prominence because they are not on message — cherry picked out.