Given that for over 20 years since international climate change negotiations began, the United States has refused to commit to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions based upon the justification that there is too
much scientific uncertainty to warrant action, if it turns out that human - induced climate change actually greatly harms the health and ecological systems on which life depends of others, should the United States be responsible for the harms that could have been avoided if preventative action had been taken earlier?
The opponents of climate change policies have succeeded in opposing proposed climate change law and policy by claiming that government action on climate change should be opposed because: (1) it will impose unacceptable costs on national economics or specific industries and destroy jobs, (2) there is too
much scientific uncertainty to warrant government action, or (3) it would be unfair and ineffective for nations like the United States to adopt expensive climate policies as long as China or India fail to adopt serious greenhouse gas emissions reductions policies.
First proposed climate policies should be opposed because there is too
much scientific uncertainty to warrant action.
If a nation emitting high levels of ghgs refuses to reduce its emissions to its fair share of safe global emissions on the basis that there is too
much scientific uncertainty to warrant action, if it turns out that human - induced climate change actually greatly harms the health and ecological systems on which life depends for tens of millions of others, should that nation be responsible for the harms that could have been avoided if preventative action had been taken earlier?
The opponents of climate change policies have largely succeeded in opposing proposed climate change law and policy by claiming that government action on climate change should be opposed because: (1) it will impose unacceptable costs on national economics or specific industries and destroy jobs, (2) there is too
much scientific uncertainty to warrant government action, or (3) it would be unfair and ineffective for nations like the United States to adopt expensive climate policies as long as China or India fail to adopt serious greenhouse gas emissions reductions policies.
First there is too
much scientific uncertainty to warrant action and secondly climate policies will destroy jobs, specific industries, and the US economy.
Not exact matches
The next year, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was publishing its second major assessment of climate science, Shell found itself in a delicate balancing act between accepting the
scientific consensus and arguing that there was still too
much uncertainty to dictate aggressive action.
Scientific knowledge input into process based models has
much improved, reducing
uncertainty of known science for some components of sea - level rise (e.g. steric changes), but when considering other components (e.g. ice melt from ice sheets, terrestrial water contribution) science is still emerging, and
uncertainties remain high.
Given inherent
uncertainty in assessing new technologies this means that the risks to the environment and human health are
much higher than were the case if more certain
scientific information were required.
Scientific predictions of climate change for the next couple centuries, when we already know that CO2 and water vapor will be high, involves
much less
uncertainty than prediction of climate change when CO2 and water vapor are low.
Cohen made it sound like the chart's wide range of climate outcomes was due to
scientific uncertainty, when in fact
much of the range is tied to social and economic unknowns.
The drawback of this approach is that
uncertainty and minority interpretations are so
much in the spotlight that we may forget the items that actually do enjoy broad
scientific consensus.
Drawing on case studies of past environmental debates such as those over acid rain and ozone depletion, science policy experts Roger Pielke Jr. and Daniel Sarewitz argue that once next generation technologies are available that make meaningful action on climate change lower - cost, then
much of the argument politically over
scientific uncertainty is likely to diminish.26 Similarly, research by Yale University's Dan Kahan and colleagues suggest that building political consensus on climate change will depend heavily on advocates for action calling attention to a diverse mix of options, with some actions such as tax incentives for nuclear energy, government support for clean energy research, or actions to protect cities and communities against climate risks, more likely to gain support from both Democrats and Republicans.
Should a developed nation such as the United States which has
much higher historical and per capita emissions than other nations be able to justify its refusal to reduce its ghg emissions to its fair share of safe global emissions on the basis of
scientific uncertainty, given that if the mainstream science is correct, the world is rapidly running out of time to prevent warming above 2 degrees C, a temperature limit which if exceeded may cause rapid, non-linear climate change.
Once next - generation technologies are available that make meaningful action on climate change cheaper, Pielke believes that
much of the political arguments over
scientific uncertainty will diminish.
There is
much work to be done in climate science to reduce the
uncertainties or to at least acknowledge when reducing those
uncertainties will require some
scientific breakthroughs or clearly present a limitation of knowing.
So there are a lot of
scientific issues to resolve, dismissing this
uncertainty and this disagreement is not useful, and has caused
much uneccessary conflict and distraction from the real policy issues at hand.
I have it straight from the Horses mouth that the historic temperature record is not given
much credence these days due to
scientific uncertainties and they are somewhat played down.
Is there a
scientific reason that you and (Dr Curry) chose to ignore this information and quote a
much larger
uncertainty?
We have at least to consider the possibility that the
scientific establishment behind the global warming issue has been drawn into the trap of seriously overstating the climate problem — or, what is
much the same thing, of seriously understating the
uncertainties associated with the climate problem — in its effort to promote the cause.
The
scientific uncertainties associated with climate prediction are the basis of most of the arguments about the significance of climate change (25), and as well are the basis of
much of the polarized public opinion on the political aspects of the matter.
In light of all this, we have at least to consider the possibility that the
scientific establishment behind the global warming issue has been drawn into the trap of seriously overstating the climate problem — or, what is
much the same thing, of seriously understating the
uncertainties associated with the climate problem.
Consequently,
much published research and many notable
scientific advances have occurred since the TAR, including advances in the understanding and treatment of
uncertainty.
Understanding the risk of half a degree of extra warming brings other
scientific challenges, including the need to narrow the
uncertainty over how
much warming a given amount of carbon produces, known as the climate sensitivity, and the role of short - lived gases, such as methane.