Instead you used the IPCC estimate of the long term trend (which has
a much smaller uncertainty).
How does the AR4 obtain
a much smaller uncertainty?
Playing with
the much smaller uncertainties is irrelevant compared to that.
Not exact matches
«While we are pleased the industry continues growing at faster rates than other sectors of the economy, we could be growing
much faster, creating more new jobs and businesses, if Washington addressed the tax, spending and regulatory
uncertainty plaguing the
small business community in a meaningful way,» said IFA President & CEO Steve Caldeira.
This
uncertainty is
much smaller than the range from the traditional UN high and low variants.
This could eliminate
smaller for - profits, nonprofits or schools themselves that may have
much to offer the emerging field but can't afford the financial
uncertainty of a performance - pay system.
Researchers cautioned that the sample size was
small, however, and subject to «higher variance and
uncertainty» than the
much larger group of district high school graduates.
With so many choices, it is understandable that there is so
much uncertainty about where to turn for
small business financing.
Therefore, the contribution of random independent errors to the
uncertainty on the global average SST is
much smaller than the contribution of random error to the
uncertainty on a single observation even in the most sparsely observed years»
Between 1901 and 2010, global sea levels rose by 0.19 ± 0.02 m, albeit at varying rates and spatial distribution (Church et al. 2013)-- these past values (including their
uncertainty) are potentially
much smaller than those associated with future projections.
But the bias
uncertainty is
smaller than the errors which are not persistent in time (e.g. due to incomplete spatial coverage), so I don't think accounting for this would make
much difference, as Victor suggests.
The bounds in West Antarctica (loss of between 128 and 103 Gt / yr) reflect a
much smaller GIA
uncertainty together with a
much small surface area.
The specific claim made is that the number of grid boxes in actual climate models is relatively
much smaller — but all that means is the statistics of climate models will have
much more
uncertainty than the actual physical climate, hardly something modelers don't recognize.
In the open oceans — most of the oceans — this
uncertainty is generally
much smaller because temperature gradients are
smaller.
In regions where there are plentiful observations, the
uncertainty is
much smaller.
In the global average, the
uncertainty is
much,
much smaller.
This parameter
uncertainty has been studied before with a
much smaller coupled model ensemble that could only be run on a supercomputer.
As you can see, the difference in the trend is
much smaller than
uncertainty, meaning there is minimal evidence supporting your view that the data «could be indicating» another pause.
Lindzen isn't highlighting that the large
uncertainty in aerosol effects is responsible for
much of the
uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimates: he's making an unjustified claim that the aerosol negative forcing is
small.
The ocean is
small potatoes, and there is enough
uncertainty in the methane budget to accommodate adjustments in the sources without too
much overturning of apple carts.
However, as we note in that paper, the 1934 and 1998 temperature are practically the same, the difference being
much smaller than the
uncertainty.
The magnitude of the offset is uncertain but is likely to be
small, even for a new Grand Solar Minimum, estimated in the linked reference at about 0.1 C by 2100, but with considerable associated
uncertainty, which the authors estimate could lead to a temperature offset as
much as 0.3 C, and perhaps even more.
Gary Turner, Xero's UK co-founder and managing director said: «Our research has revealed a remarkable trait among
small businesses to look on the bright side, particularly in the current climate when faced with so
much uncertainty.