That could easily be 50 %, which means that even if atmospheric CO2 levels off today, there's as
much warming in the pipeline as we've already seen.
Not exact matches
For instance, when Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne emerged from a January meeting with Alberta's Rachel Notley to say
warm, fuzzy things about Alberta's new climate strategy and the quest for
pipelines, the prime minister quickly praised their efforts from Switzerland, where he was attending the World Economic Forum: «I am very
much in the camp of both premiers, Wynne and Notley, who demonstrated that Canada can and should work together on economic issues for all of us.»
This is
much less than the current «best estimate» of about 3 deg.C, and would imply that there is * not * any unfelt
warming «still
in the
pipeline» from greenhouse gases we've already emitted.
The remaining energy imbalance helps us assess how
much additional
warming is still «
in the
pipeline».
If we knew ocean heat uptake as well as we know atmospheric temperature change, then we could pin down fairly well the radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere, which would give us a fair indication of how
much warming is «
in the
pipeline» given current greenhouse gas concentrations.
This imbalance is really an important quantity — estimates of how
much warming is
in the «
pipeline», the size of the aerosol cooling effect etc. all depend on knowing what this number is.
Given an actual imbalance, you can estimate how
much further the sea surface will need to
warm to remove it — this is the
warming «
in the
pipeline».
Granted it's impractical, but it gives us some feel for what we've done so far, how fast nature takes up CO2, how
much warming is
in the
pipeline.
We don't have
much room for error, and we don't know for sure how
much warming remains «
in the
pipeline» from CO2 already emitted.
The remaining energy imbalance helps us assess how
much additional
warming is still «
in the
pipeline».
First, that the impact of adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere will be
much smaller than most estimates; second, that almost all of the
warming due to the greenhouse gases we've put
in the atmosphere so far has already been felt, so there's almost no
warming «
in the
pipeline» due to greenhouse gases already
in the air.