We show that the GCMs fail to reproduce the major decadal and
multidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record from 1850 to 2011.
... the GCMs fail to reproduce the major decadal and
multidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record from 1850 to 2011.
Not exact matches
Furthermore, since the end of the 19th century, we
find an increasing variance in
multidecadal hydroclimatic winter and spring, and this coincides with an increase in the
multidecadal North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) variability, suggesting a significant influence of large - scale atmospheric circulation patterns.
The Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño - Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) have all been
found to significantly influence changes in surface air temperature and rainfall (climate) on decadal and multi-decadal scales, and these natural ocean
oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar activity.
In their paper Decadal Variations in the Global Atmospheric Land Temperatures, they
find that the largest contributor to global average temperature variability on short (2 - 5 year) timescales in not the El Nino - Southern
Oscillation (ENSO)(as everyone else believes), but is actually the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
It will take some time to integrate the
findings of this study with other evidence of changes in North Atlantic ocean circulation, including the changes seen in salinity, changes in the so - called Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)(see e.g. Knight et al, 2005 and references therein) and other indicators of Atlantic climate change (e.g. Dickson et al, 2002).
Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal
oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 mea
Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year
oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 mea
oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a
finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).
I for one have published a number of papers very much arguing for its existence (e.g. Delworth and Mann, 2000 and Knight et all, 2005, you can
find reprints of both here), and must confess that I actually coined the term «Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation» in an interview with Richard Kerr of Science in 2000.
They
found that between 5 % and 30 % of the Arctic sea ice decline from 1979 to 2010 could be attributed to the natural cycles of the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Arctic
Oscillation (AO), and even less can be attributed to natural cycles since 1953, since these natural cycles tend to average out over longer timeframes (as Vinnikov also
found).
They
found a 60 - to 90 - year cycle in Barents and Greenland seas ice extent related to the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO); the AMO is a basin - wide cycle of sea surface temperature variability similar to the El Niño and La Niña cycles in the Pacific, but varying over much longer periods.
The BEST team
found that greenhouse gases and volcanic eruptions could account for most of the observed temperature change, and suggest that the remainder of the variability is fairly consistent with the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), an ocean cycle, and very little contribution from changes in solar activity (Figure 2).
The Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) have been
found to contribute significantly to the nesting behavior of loggerhead turtles.
Decadal variability is described via large - scale patterns
found in the atmosphere and ocean, which oscillate at decadal timescales and are concentrated in specific regions (e.g., Pacific Decadal
Oscillation, Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation, Arctic and Antarctic
Oscillations).
You can
find me at GC21C - 0566 with a poster titled «An Ekman Transport Mechanism for the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation».
Subsequent observational studies and simulations with coupled atmosphere — ocean models have
found similar
multidecadal climatic modes, typically originating in the North Atlantic Ocean; however, the excitation source or sources of these
oscillations have not been unambiguously identified (Knight 2009).
A recurrent
multidecadal oscillation is found to extend to the preindustrial era in the 353 - y Central England Temperature and is likely an internal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), possibly caused by the thermohaline circulation
multidecadal oscillation is found to extend to the preindustrial era in the 353 - y Central England Temperature and is likely an internal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), possibly caused by the thermohaline circulation v
oscillation is
found to extend to the preindustrial era in the 353 - y Central England Temperature and is likely an internal variability related to the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), possibly caused by the thermohaline circulation
Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), possibly caused by the thermohaline circulation v
Oscillation (AMO), possibly caused by the thermohaline circulation variability.