Based on demographic trends, the nation should see a stronger rebound
in multifamily construction than in single - family construction in the years to come.
If the pace of
new multifamily construction doesn't outstrip demand, the predictions of growth in the market will most likely prove to be justified.
Housing data experts at the Cromford Report, which is the premier data trove for local real estate professionals, say portions of northern Tempe, downtown Phoenix and Scottsdale are the heart of the luxury
multifamily construction boom.
«The longer term outlook is especially positive
for multifamily construction, reflecting the aging of the baby boomers and an associated shift in demand from single - family to multifamily housing.
The NAHB construction spending index, which is shown in the graph below (the base is January 2000), illustrates the strong growth in new
multifamily construction since 2010 and a steady growth in single - family construction and home improvement spending.
A pullback in
multifamily construction financing, a less frothy investment sales market and higher capital costs are all factors contributing to a fairly conservative lending estimates for this year.
Nationally, real spending on new
multifamily construction showed a long - term upward trend prior to the collapse of the housing bubble, and it has rebounded strongly in the aftermath of the collapse, such that it is currently near its 2006 all - time high.
The NAHB construction spending index, which is shown in the graph below (the base is January 2000), illustrates the strong growth in new
multifamily construction from 2010 to April 2017, and a steady growth in single - family construction and home improvement spending.
Few projects demonstrate the appeal of
multifamily construction more than the proposed demalling of Santa Monica Place, a conventional regional mall.
Rappaport comments, «Suburbs seeking to retain aging households may need to re-create a range of these urban amenities and enact some rezoning to
encourage multifamily construction.»
Still, the overall trend remains decidedly positive for new
multifamily construction activity as the level of spending is 52 % ahead of the pace in February 2012 and has more than doubled the August 2010 low point.
Multifamily construction nationwide is two - thirds of the way back to its prerecession peak, while single - family home construction is still only about a third of the way back to its peak, said David Crowe, the chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders.
«Our long - term expectation
for multifamily construction is for it to stay at an elevated level relative to some periods in the past,» says Jay Denton, senior vice president of research and analytics for data firm Axiometrics, based in Dallas.
The NAHB construction spending index, which is shown in the graph below (the base is January 2000), illustrates the strong growth in new
multifamily construction since 2010 and a more modest growth in single - family construction and home improvement spending.
In 2016, Dodge Date released its Construction Outlook, which predicted single - family construction would see a 20 % increase in the following year,
while multifamily construction was expected to post a 7 % gain after
Meanwhile,
multifamily construction doesn't appear to be abating either, in spite of significant levels of new supply already coming on the market.
PNC continues to provide capital on
multifamily construction loans, although its lenders are keeping a close eye on markets that have had a lot of supply and signs of flattening rent growth.
Although most of the improvement was due to a 74.5 % increase
in multifamily construction, single - family starts increased nicely as well (up 10.7 %).
A relatively limited amount of
new multifamily construction in Northeast Florida has kept the occupancy rate above its historical average, presenting opportunity for increased rent growth.
In contrast,
multifamily construction is increasing considerably.
Starts fell in May for single - family and
multifamily construction.
Overall, U.S. housing starts dropped for the fourth time in five months, according to Commerce Department data, revealing that
multifamily construction is slowing.
By the end of the decade,
multifamily construction is likely to peak at a level nearly two - thirds higher than its highest annual level during the 1990s and 2000s,» Mr. Rappaport wrote.
(Though he also notes slowing U.S. population growth «will put significant downward pressure on both single - family and
multifamily construction.»)
Based on demographic trends, the country should see a stronger rebound in
multifamily construction than in single - family construction, Kansas City Fed senior economist Jordan Rappaport wrote in the most recent issue of the bank's Economic Review.
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«Modular is the future of
multifamily construction and Full Stack Modular will be at the forefront of innovation in our industry.
PNC Real Estate is one bank that has admittedly «taken its foot off the gas» on
its multifamily construction lending, notes David Aloise, an executive vice president at PNC Real Estate.