Construction activity is expected to level out over the remainder of 2012, but we
anticipate multifamily starts to remain well above 200,000 through the end of next year.
A decline
in multifamily starts pushed overall housing production down 7 % in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.24 million units, according to newly released data from HUD and the Commerce Department.
The average pace
of multifamily starts right now is based on an average which began with a leap of 97 thousand in December and then fell 79 thousand in January.
While
multifamily starts rose 8.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 191,000 units for the month, permits edged up 0.4 percent to 231,000 units.
Approvals for single - family starts were down 0.6 percent, to 872,000 permits, while approvals
for multifamily starts came in at 385,000.
Multifamily starts moved in the opposite direction because of a unusually high level in June but also continued on an upward trend when comparing a moving - average that now tops over a 400,000 annualized rate.
«Condos made up 30 per cent of
new multifamily starts in 2004, which is a record - high percentage,» says Gary Benson, president of Garrison Partners, a Chicago - based firm that specializes in condo conversions.
Multifamily starts made a larger gain of 57 percent compared to single - family starts, which increased 35 percent.
The number of single - family and
multifamily starts per 1,000 households last month was about 36 % below the 50 - year average, according to Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Trulia.
Single family starts dipped to an annual pace of 610 thousand in April from 623 thousand in March, but
multifamily starts plunged from a pace of 398 thousand in March to 243 thousand in April.
We
expect multifamily starts to continue to increase but at a slower pace than the 200 + percent growth rate in the fourth quarter as starts move steadily toward the annual pace of 350 thousand that we consider sustainable.
Multifamily starts tend to be more volatile but have trended upward since hitting bottom in late 2009 and have outpaced single family production in the housing market recovery.
After a likely modest retrenchment in the first quarter of 2013, the baseline forecast calls for consistent gains in
multifamily starts through the end of 2014.
«Meanwhile, the decline in
multifamily starts reflects an adjustment from an unsustainably large gain in December, and is consistent with the up - and - down swings that are often associated with that sector.»
However, when
excluding multifamily starts, single - family production rose in three out of the four regions in May — the Northeast, South, and West.
The average pace
of multifamily starts has been 321 thousand since December, but that average is based on the pace of starts jumping up 97 thousand units in December from November's pace before falling back 79 thousand units in January.
Historically, the MPI and MVI have performed well as leading indicators of U.S. Census figures
for multifamily starts and vacancy rates, providing information on likely movement in the Census figures one to three quarters in advance.
While this might represent a lull, spending should continue to expand over the near term
as multifamily starts have exceeded 200,000 units in 8 of the last 9 months and permits for 5 + units surged to a four - year high in September.
U.S. new - home construction rose by more than forecast in March on a rebound in
multifamily starts, giving a boost to first - quarter economic growth, government figures showed Tuesday.
«We can expect further gains in single - family production throughout the year, while
multifamily starts should level off.»
«
Multifamily starts should continue to level off throughout the year.
Multifamily starts (five units or more) came in at 317,000.
Multifamily starts are usually more volatile, and this is reflected in several swings throughout the last few months.
Multifamily starts should continue to level off throughout the year,» said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.
For 2013, we forecast
a multifamily starts total of 299,000, a 22 % increase over the prior year.
The month - over-month decline in housing starts largely reflected a 26.2 % decrease in
multifamily starts, which came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 245,000 in June.
The Northeast region saw a 41.6 % increase in
multifamily starts.
Meanwhile, some markets are experiencing substantial increases in
multifamily starts.
The fact is that single - family and
multifamily starts and permits were all stronger in the first quarter of 2012 than they were in the fourth quarter of 2011, indicating that the market continues to slowly strengthen, albeit in fits and starts.
Single - family and
multifamily starts rose the most in the West last month, up 14.4 percent month - over-month.
Led by a solid increase in both single - family and
multifamily starts, nationwide housing production rose 22.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.09 million in November, according to figures released by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.
Multifamily starts, which Crowe says are now at a normal level of production, are projected to increase 15 percent in 2014 to 356,000 units and hold steady next year.
«Single - family and
multifamily starts are at five - year highs, providing additional evidence that the recovery is here to stay,» said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.