Sentences with phrase «multiple climate models»

And the multiple climate models do not solve this problem except to show that the consensus is not that strong or else the models would get the same result (which they don't).

Using multiple climate models from around the world, Clement's research team removed the ocean circulation from the analysis to reveal that variations in the Atlantic climate were generally the same.

Using multiple climate models and hundreds of terabytes of data, NASA has projected global temperatures and rainfall around the world from 2050 until 2100.

Previous research has suggested a connection between coal - burning and the Sahel drought, but this was the first study that used decades of historical observations to find that this drought was part of a global shift in tropical rainfall, and then used multiple climate models to determine why.

PDRMIP investigates the role of various drivers of climate change for mean and extreme precipitation changes, based on multiple climate model output and energy budget analyses.

In response to a growing need to systematically analyze coupled ocean and atmosphere model outputs from multiple climate modeling centres, it has subsequently grown into a large program to advance model development and scientific understanding of the Earth system.

Multiple climate modeling studies have shown that both scattering and absorbing aerosols induce strong regional hydrologic cycle changes (e.g. (Levy et al. 2013; Ramanathan and Carmichael 2008; Wang et al. 2009)-RRB-, and that there is typically a substantially greater precipitation response per unit RF than for well - mixed greenhouse gases (Shindell et al. 2012a, b).

Not exact matches

Multiple high - resolution climate models confirmed that the increasing trend is due mainly to human - caused global warming.

In the study published in the journal American Naturalist, researchers developed a model based on food web interactions among plants, grasshoppers, and spiders exposed to multiple changing climate variables.

Leung and Qian also participate in the North American Climate Change Assessment Program to use multiple global and regional climate models to better quantify uncertainties in projecting climate Climate Change Assessment Program to use multiple global and regional climate models to better quantify uncertainties in projecting climate climate models to better quantify uncertainties in projecting climate climate change.

The International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy is organizing the ICTP Summer School on Theory, Mechanisms and Hierarchical Modelling of Climate Dynamics: Multiple Equilibria

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There may be reason to strongly suspect that in any sufficiently complicated dynamical system model (such as climate) with stochastic parameters (e.g., exactly when and where a lightning strike starts a major wildfire or a major submarine earthquake perturbs ocean circulation in a region or a major volcanic eruption introduces stratospheric aerosols), it is almost certain that any given run of the model will have periods of significant deviation from the mean of multiple runs.

In order to understand the potential importance of the effect, let's look at what it could do to our understanding of climate: 1) It will have zero effect on the global climate models, because a) the constraints on these models are derived from other sources b) the effect is known and there are methods for dealing the errors they introduce c) the effect they introduce is local, not global, so they can not be responsible for the signal / trend we see, but would at most introduce noise into that signal 2) It will not alter the conclusion that the climate is changing or even the degree to which it is changing because of c) above and because that conclusion is supported by multiple additional lines of evidence, all of which are consistent with the trends shown in the land stations.

P.S., apropos «Running multiple simulations with a climate model is always going to give results that have some inherent scatter...»

To overcome these drawbacks, researchers at the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change propose an alternative method that only a handful of other groups are now pursuing: a self - consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts across multiple regions and sectors.

As usual, we only have a single Earth and we are running the experiment on it right now, so models are the only way we can run multiple «experiments» and see what properties of the climate system we can figure out.

Forest et al. 2006 compares observations of multiple surface, upper air and deep - ocean temperature changes with simulations thereof by the MIT 2D climate model run at many climate parameter settings.

No, it is not based on the models - the sensitivity numbers come from multiple, independent analyses - paleoclimate, modern climate, and models.

More complex metrics have also been developed based on multiple observables in present day climate, and have been shown to have the potential to narrow the uncertainty in climate sensitivity across a given model ensemble (Murphy et al., 2004; Piani et al., 2005).

One weak paper with multiple errors and based only on one climate model will not do.....

In recent years one of the most important methods of estimating probability distributions for key properties of the climate system has been comparison of observations with multiple model simulations, run at varying settings for climate parameters.

Chris V wrote: «No, it is not based on the models - the sensitivity numbers come from multiple, independent analyses - paleoclimate, modern climate, and models.

Similarly, attribution of climate change to anthropogenic causes involves statistical analysis and the assessment of multiple lines of evidence to demonstrate, within a pre-specified margin of error, that the observed changes are (1) unlikely to be due entirely to natural internal climate variability; (2) consistent with estimated or modelled responses to the given combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing; and (3) not consistent with alternative, physically plausible explanations of recent climate change.

Studies that compare results between models and analysis techniques (e.g., Hegerl et al., 2000; Gillett et al., 2002a; Hegerl and Allen, 2002), and more recently, that use multiple models to determine fingerprints of climate change (Gillett et al., 2002c; Huntingford et al., 2006; Stott et al., 2006c; Zhang et al., 2006) find a robust detection of an anthropogenic signal in past temperature change.

I am talking about a consensus of multiple lines of evidence (empirical evidence in addition to modeling, logic etc.) When there is a large degree of uncertainty, as there is in climate science, a consensus of evidence is most definitely very important.

Impacts of cloud superparameterization on projected daily rainfall intensity climate changes in multiple versions of the Community Earth System Model

Here, we use observed data on species» distributions and present - day climate to build multiple bioclimatic models.

A consolidated estimate of ocean surface fluxes based on multiple reanalyses also helps understand biases in ENSO predictions and simulations from climate models.

For this reason, it is considered good practice to use output from multiple models to explore a range of scientifically plausible futures — to account for an envelope of future climate risk, rather than a single future pathway.

Why not construct some emissions scenarios that cover what you think might happen over the next 50 (or 100) years, and then run those scenarios through a range of leading climate models, performing multiple runs for each model to capture both the uncertainty in the model physics and internal variability.

It suggests three major changes: 1) project and policy preparation need to reflect higher risks, where vulnerability assessments and greater use of climate scenario modelling are combined with a better understanding of interconnections between smallholder farming and wider landscapes; 2) this deeper appreciation of interconnected risks should drive a major scaling up of successful «multiple - benefit» approaches to sustainable agricultural intensification by smallholder farmers; 3) climate change and fiscal austerity are reshaping the architecture of public international development finance.

A realistic test of a climate model would be to initialize it to conditions around 1850 - 1880 (which would mean making multiple runs with random starting data) and see if the average model outputs follow the measured trend from 1900 onwards.

You also ignored the multiple errors you made in claiming that certain effects were not included in climate models, including one that I referred you to peer - reviewed literature for proof, If I was one of your design reviewers and you'd completely ignored multiple specific and documented criticisms about your design, I'd go out of my way to make sure that your annual performance review indicated that you were not meeting my expectations for an engineering intern, never mind an engineer with 46 years of experience.

Equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely to be in the range 2 °C to 4.5 °C with a most likely value of about 3 °C, based upon multiple observational and modelling constraints.

As the Director of GISS and Principal Investigator for the GISS ModelE Earth System Model, I am interested in understanding past, present and future climate and the impacts of multiple drivers of climate change, including solar irradiance, atmospheric chemistry, aerosols, and greenhouse gases.

Therefore Bad Andrew, your commendable quest for verified validity (V&V) in our understanding of climate - change should focus upon the literature that validates and verifies climate - change models by comparison to multiple, independent, redundant channels, that cover all of the earth's energy - entropy reservoirs.

While the current principal interest in climatology is the climate change induced in the 21st century by increasing the CO2 concentration from 280 to 560 ppm, multiple efforts by many climatologists can not seem to overcome the uncertainties inherent in their models that still lack credibility and consistency.

However, multiple sources of uncertainty in the chain from climate forcing to impact model limit confidence in specific predictions.

These climate computer modelers do not realize that a valid model should be able to reconstruct the patterns of the climate at multiple scales and forecast them to be credible.

The widespread trend of increasing heavy downpours is expected to continue, with precipitation becoming less frequent but more intense.13, 14,15,16 The patterns of the projected changes of precipitation do not contain the spatial details that characterize observed precipitation, especially in mountainous terrain, because the projections are averages from multiple models and because the effective resolution of global climate models is roughly 100 - 200 miles.

Climate modelers often consider information from well - established tests and comparisons among existing models to help decide on a new model version among multiple candidates.

One of the consequences is that if you run multiple computer simulations of earth's climate, then average the results, the simulated ENSO events get scattered throughout time and end up being averaged out, so that the model average ends up looking like it doesn't have a strong ENSO impact even though the individual model runs do.

The new research uses multiple runs of a coupled ocean - atmosphere computer model to simulate global temperature changes in response to climate forcing when the sea surface temperature (SST) in the el Niño region follows its historically observed values.

That's why climate is generally defined in terms of multiple decades of data, why Santer et al. find that you need at least 17 years of data to compare models and the real world, and why real scientists don't say «OMG GLOBAL WARMING HAS STOPPED!»

The second and more interesting (to me) observation is that the simulated temperature changes are punctuated by multiple short term peaks and dips, differing from one model run to another, although the climate variables mentioned above were omitted from the simulations — there were no changes in model input in solar or aerosol forcing, and ENSO was largely eliminated by smoothing.