You could begin by recognizing that observations aren't model calculations.
Not exact matches
You don't expect to receive them on a regular basis, which means that including them in your MRR
calculations will inflate your revenue expectations and skew your financial
model.
We can
not use consensus values for our margin forecasts because our margin
calculations take into account a great deal more data than is used in most analysts»
models.
It used Quebec's
model — the most expensive in Canada — in its
calculations, and did
not take into account savings for the provinces and territories.
Röpke locates wealth creation «
not in «capital,» machine
models, technical or organizational recipes or natural wealth, but in a spirit of order, foresight, combination,
calculation, enterprise, human leadership and the freedom to shape life and things, also in citizenship, responsibility, loyalty to work, reliability, thrift and the urge to create, and in a civil middle class, providing the humus for all this» things, in short, which can neither be conjured up from the soil, nor imported.»
A
model calculation about the size of this «exemption»: In Germany the first ca. 8100 $ are
not taxed.
«There's a real difference between a back - of - the - envelope
calculation and actually plugging it into a more sophisticated
model,» says Jason Barnes, an astronomer from the University of Idaho, who was
not involved in the study.
It is also argued that experiment clearly indicates that interlayer interactions strongly affect the superconducting transition temperature, Tc, consistent with the fact that no theoretical
calculations on two - dimensional Hubbard
models have resulted in the prediction of high transition temperatures, and that anyon
models are
not favored by experiment.
«After 20 pages of
calculation, they don't have a prediction and they don't test their
model,» Barthelemy says.
The
calculation model the authors used includes economic benefits for producers and consumers as well as the benefits of reduced malnutrition among subsistence farm - households often
not explicitly considered in previous studies.
Indeed the estimate of aerosol forcing used in the
calculation of transient climate response (TCR) in the paper does
not come directly from climate
models, but instead incorporates an adjustment to those
models so that the forcing better matches the assessed estimates from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Because of the expense of doing the Venus radiative transfer
calculation, there hasn't been much
modelling of the Venus general circulation.
Comparison with the
modeled temperature response in histAll is inconsistent without accounting for stratospheric water, land - use, solar, etc, some of which are poorly characterized (hence I did
not make use of a
calculation like this).
A combination of extensive state - of - the - art numerical
calculations with classic analytical
models describing the kinetics of sequential chemical reactions has shown that it is
not enough to consider the energy potential landscape (i.e. the energies of the species along the reaction pathway and the associated transformation barriers), but that energy dissipation to the substrate and changes in molecular entropy play a critical role for the stabilization of the intermediates.
According to
model calculations, temperatures can
not be allowed to rise by more than 1.2 degrees Celsius if at least half the reefs are to survive.
The computer
models in use are
not, by necessity, direct
calculations of all basic physics but rely upon empirical approximations for many of the smaller scale processes of the oceans and atmosphere.
Therefore, differences between forward estimates and inverse estimates may have one of several causes, including (1) the magnitude of the forward
model calculation is incorrect due to inadequate physics and / or chemistry, (2) the forward
calculation has
not evaluated all forcings and feedbacks or (3) other forcings project on the fingerprint of the forcing that is estimated in the inverse
calculation.
Study coauthor Matthew Gaertner, who produced
calculations for this article that were
not part of the published study, said displaced student test scores dropped 12 percent in reading, 9 percent in math, and 19 percent in writing compared with what they would have scored had the school
not closed (using
modeling developed from historic test data).
Automation and computerization are exceeding human ability for doing repetitive tasks and
calculations, but the educational
model has
not changed.
Several key features help students build mental
models: visual representations that can
not be directly observed, interactive environments, connections to everyday life, and efficient
calculations so students focus on concepts.
Unlike some other methods of estimating teacher effectiveness, such as value - added
modeling, MGP
calculations do
not try to adjust for differences in student characteristics.
And again, our figures are
not derived from speculative
models, we use data from the state pension plans themselves, which use the same data in their own financial
calculations.
At this point, it should come as no surprise that none of the 400 GTI Clubsport S
models slated for production will be offered in the United States; apparently, when VW says that a particular car will be available worldwide, it isn't including the world's second - largest automobile market in its
calculations.
But they'd have to be damned clear about how they're calculating unit sales, would have to aggregate sufficient data so that they had an error estimate in their
calculation, would have to poll for lengthy periods of time, and would have to test their results against actual data to see how the
model (and this is a
model of earnings,
not data about earnings) corresponds with reality.
Instead, if reliable markets don't exist, and the
calculation of market inputs is uncertain, then go back to a cash flow
model with a «reasonable» discount rate.
I realize that
models such as gordon growth take this into account, but you don't address it in your «debt plus a premium»
calculation.
Models do
not perform any
calculations or decisions, nor do they interact with other units or components.
After all, it seems crystal clear what the underlying
calculation was: since AMEG had engaged in «high profile extrapolation» using PIOMAS, and Real Climate found this
not to be judicious, they decided to take them down and discredit them by getting those who have been working inside PIOMAS
modelling to say that they had misused or misunderstood the
model.
Constraining climate sensitivity isn't a matter of a few «
calculations,» but of considering known or
modeled climate forcings and responses.
This isn't a problem for actually
modelling the effects, but it does make comparing them to other forcings without doing the
calculations a little more tricky.
The observer would also see that these events are
not tractable to analytic prediction beforehand, due to any or several of various regular functions: including definition,
modeling, measurement,
calculation, experiment control, and repeated verification.
Global
calculations determine the background in which regional
models are applied, but they don't have the same level of detail or use as many variables.
I think it is over the heads of Myron Ebell's intended audience, however, and it may be necessary to write an overview — at high - school level — that explains the relative value of inductive and deductive methods in science, use of multi-compartment
models in general, the sorts of problems they regularly entail (formulation, measurement,
n - body
calculation, brute - force computer simulation, experimental repetition, real - world validation, emergent properties, catastrophic regime - shift, assignment of probabilities, etc.) and how these are variously or provisionally overcome, according to the science you are practicing.
Marcus, why do you assume that one can't use steady state
calculations for
modeling the levels of atmospheric CO2?
First, Ross McKitrick's
calculations were
not mistaken but used a set of data from your GISS
model output.
The matter of thresholds, eg where bifurcation takes place and systems can move along diverse paths / patterns, is clearly a very important area and it is
not necessarily obvious that such thresholds may emerge directly from
model calculations.
The point I should have made in # 41 is that back - of - the - envelope
calculations that imply 1st order
models of the type dCO2 = a * E --(CO2 - CO2 (0)-RRB- / tau are
not well constrained by the Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 data.
However, published impacts are localized, and
model calculations do
not show a significant effect on lapse rates averaged over the whole tropics.
Especially since based on the
model calculations you'd expect anyway trends around 0.2 degrees per decade, because
models predict
not a constant but a gradually accelerating warming.
Another example can be drawn from the energy balance
model calculations for the snow / ice instability — despite all the details
not in the original energy balance
model, much more complex general circulation
models have now been shown to have the same behavior — a citation from 1994 -LRB-!)
About the CO2 effect, I did
not do any real
calculations, I simply suggest that the
model should contain the CO2 and CH4 cycle mechanisms and many other mechanisms to be correctly interpreted.
What climate
models assume is a wide - ranging compendium of physical processes that are either well known but too complicated to incorporate into the climate
model (for example the direct radiational effect of Carbon Dioxide on greenhouse warming is considerably * simplified * compared to the most sophisticated «line - by - line» radiation
models that are available, simply because there isn't enough computer power to make the line - by - line
calculation at every location on Earth at every time step within in a GCM), or are
not sufficiently well - known to treat them with complete certainty.
IPCC makes all sorts of
calculations on the deleterious effects of
NOT halting CO2 emissions, based on the same climate sensitivity estimate and a bunch of
model «scenarios» on CO2 increase.
Trude Storelvmo of Yale University and her colleagues did
not use climate
models to find out the answer, but they based their
calculations on temperature and solar radiation records taken from more than thousands of global measurement sites over the course of 46 years.
These attribution
calculations depend on climate
models because we can
not measure the impact each forcing agent has on temperature alone.
Theoretician - climatologist on climate
calculation: We can
model our biosphere's chaotic climate systems with enough confidence to know we are heading for a «big problem» if we don't mitigate CO2 emissions.
Note that computer
models are just concatenations of
calculations you could do on a hand - held calculator, so they are theoretical and can
not be part of any evidence.»
If nobody believes the
models or sensitivity
calculations with any level of confidence then how come we can't get scientists to admit that the whole debate has become too political, they aren't sure of what is going to happen and please wait while we continue to work on the science and the
models.
So the 3.7 W m - 2
calculation for global radiative forcing could be refined perhaps by an improved experimental design (
not necessarily by improved radiative transfer
models) running RT
models at each grid cell over the globe, over the diurnal cycle and the annual cycle for say 30 years, for the two different CO2 concentrations, such a detailed
calculation would refine the 3.7 value.
You'll note my original comment stated chemistry was largely phenomenology «other than quantum chemistry
calculations» - maybe quantum chemistry is more prevalent now than it was back when I worked in the field, but I don't believe even now it's what spectroscopists do most of the time - they make measurements and parametrize simple
models, they don't work all the time from basic physical principles.