Sentences with phrase «naive model»
A naive model refers to a basic and simplified model or assumption that does not consider complex factors or details that could affect the outcome. It overlooks certain factors and assumes a straightforward relationship, often with limited accuracy or predictive power. Full definition
This is why many naive models of value work better over time than active managers.
greenbackd.com
The «no change» model was the best predictor of changes in the historical data, and so would have been the best naive model in 1988.
The upshot is that, even if you operate with an extremely naive model in which only student achievement outcomes matter, it's not obvious that tenure reform2 will have large net benefits:
Dress them up anyway you like, but most fancy econometric models turn out to be overpriced, naive models (simple trend extrapolations).
Samuelson's paper challenged the performance of active managers and suggested that, «at the least, some large foundation should set up an in - house portfolio that tracks the S&P 500 Index — if only for the purpose of setting up a naive model against which their in - house gunslingers can measure their prowess.»
«This is unsettling, and urges us to ask why our models didn't perform as well as a naive model,» lamented a team of Harvard scientists in a paper describing their methods, which, along with five other entries, is reported in a special NCAA issue of the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports.
An important real issue is whether proxy data provides more information than naive models (such as the mean of the calibrating data for instance) or outperform random noise of various types.
Julie Hargreaves has a new paper out on this precise question and shows that the early model simulations had substantial skill compared to any naive model.
I note in passing the Wiley site is currently down for maintenance so Hargreaves is not accessible — however from the diagram that can be seen it looks as though the null hypothesis was «no change in temperature» rather than showing it «had substantial skill compared to any naive model.
Hamilton, 4.3, + / -0.8, Statistical This is a naive model proposed at the start of the 2012 melt season.
In the first place, there is no reason why a naive model would have predicted a 32 year warming trend.
But if we're going to compare trends in a thread of blog comments to a «seventh grader» naive model, then yes, in this type of forum, it becomes valid... and Hansen's skill becomes spot on.
This ignores the fact that IPCC projections have already proved themselves better than such a naive model, but their critique is novel enough to be worth a mention.
There is a new critique of IPCC climate projections doing the rounds of the blogosphere from two «scientific forecasters», Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong, who claim that since the IPCC projections are not «scientific forecasts» they must perforce be wrong and that a naive model of no change in future is likely to be more accurate that any IPCC conclusion.