Sentences with phrase «narrow uncertainty in»

The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions.

Hawkins, E., and R. Sutton, 2011: The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change.

More complex metrics have also been developed based on multiple observables in present day climate, and have been shown to have the potential to narrow the uncertainty in climate sensitivity across a given model ensemble (Murphy et al., 2004; Piani et al., 2005).

The study of past warm climates may not narrow uncertainty in future climate projections in coming centuries because fast climate sensitivity may itself be state - dependent» http://www.pnas.org/content/110/35/14162.full

The study of past warm climates may not narrow uncertainty in future climate projections in coming centuries because fast climate sensitivity may itself be state - dependent» http://www.pnas.org/content/110/35/14162.full

We've narrowed the uncertainty in surface warming projections by generating thousands of climate simulations that each closely match observational records for nine key climate metrics, including warming and ocean heat content.»

Andrew (25)-- The propect for significantly narrowing the uncertainty in climate sensitivity in the near term does not appear good, IMO.

In a previous post, I described the concept of emergent constraints, which allow us to narrow uncertainties in climate change projections through empirical relationships that relate a model's climate response to observable metrics.

This points to the importance of narrowing the uncertainty in forcing to more accurately define the high sensitivity tail, and so better constrain which GCM's generate plausible diagnosed sensitivities and which do not.

Gold «This points to the importance of narrowing the uncertainty in forcing to more accurately define the high sensitivity tail, and so better constrain which GCM's generate plausible diagnosed sensitivities and which do not.

IMO, narrowing the uncertainty in aerosol offsets is the only clear path to better understanding of climate sensitivity.

This diversity of emergent constraints highlights the commitment of the climate community to narrowing uncertainties in climate projections.

Reducing these uncertainties would go a long way toward narrowing uncertainty in climate sensitivity and constraining GCM's.

Not exact matches

«There are real shortcomings in how American politics are covered, including pervasive groupthink among media elites, an unhealthy obsession with the insider's view of politics, a lack of analytical rigor, a failure to appreciate uncertainty, a sluggishness to self - correct when new evidence contradicts pre-existing beliefs, and a narrow viewpoint that lacks perspective.»

It said the company has a «strong position in the Asia - Pacific beverages market with the powerful Coca - Cola brand providing it with a relatively stable earnings stream, narrow economic moat and medium uncertainty rating».

Further studies of the cosmic microwave background from NASA's MAP satellite, launched in June, may narrow that uncertainty to a mere 100 million years, Knox says.

It shows that the problem of pollution from trash burning is big enough that it warrants further study to try and narrow down the large uncertainties inherent in the study's estimates.

We shall see in this 3 - part article that emergent constraint approaches have the potential to offer useful insights into cloud behaviour, however the main focus will be on to what extent they narrow the uncertainty range of ECS in GCMs.

I can certainly tell you that it would not be acceptable to report such a narrow combined uncertainty in a physics measurement (where uncertainties are much more under control) if the result of two measurements showed such discrepancies.

In isolation, a narrow range bar signals uncertainty while a wide range bar shows wild trading.

Throw in the unemployment rate (as a measure of buyer uncertainty) and the and the range narrows further.

The ranges are narrower than in the TAR mainly because of improved information about some uncertainties in the projected contributions15.

While Annan and Hargreaves gave an upper limit (at 5 %) of 4.5 C, Annan suggests that this is actually being generous with the uncertainty in his blog — not that this matters so much until the technical paper comes out which demonstrates a narrower range.

Steven E. Koonin, once the Obama administration's undersecretary of energy for science and chief scientist at BP, stirred up a swirl of turbulence in global warming discourse this week after The Wall Street Journal published «Climate Science is Not Settled,» his essay calling for more frankness about areas of deep uncertainty in climate science, more research to narrow error ranges and more acknowledgement that society's decisions on energy and climate policy are based on values as much as data.

However, there are greater absolute reductions (and more uncertainty) in the levelized cost of energy for offshore wind compared with onshore wind, and a narrowing gap between fixed - bottom and floating offshore wind.

So far modellers have failed to narrow the total bands of uncertainties since the first report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1990.

10, as 17th / 83rd percentile CIs from independent Gaussian distributions, a conservative simplifying assumption in that it narrows overall uncertainty compared with assuming any correlation.

If we do this with the data here, we obtain an ECS that likely lies within the blue band: between 3.1 and 4.2 K, with a most likely value of 3.7 K. Simply looking at the scatter of the 29 models in this plot indicates that this uncertainty band is too narrow.

... a breathtaking dash through personal hypocrisy, factual inaccuracy and political rhetoric... it's very hard to interpret this as a statement made in good faith... a clearer example of disinformation could not be wished for... excellent means to give a misleading impression of uncertainty... shortsighted vision and moral bankruptcy... a shameless call to narrow self - interest... Professor Curry advocates unwise policy based on false claims and bankrupt morals.

By Dr. Tim Ball It is not surprising that Roe and Baker explained in a 2007 Science paper that, «The envelope of uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably over the past 30 years, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem.»

Narrowing climate sensitivity is challenging since the measure includes, and therefore compounds, the uncertainty inherent in aerosols, clouds and other phenomena.

Where I have some difficulty is reconciling the narrow error bars with Stephens et al. (2012) who state, «The current uncertainty in this net surface energy balance is large, and amounts to approximately 17 Wm — 2.

In fairness, there remains considerable uncertainty in aerosol effects, but if there will be real progress in narrowing the credible range for climate sensitivity, it has to come from reducing the still too wide uncertainty in aerosol effects, not from flogging climate models which assume aerosol offsets inconsistent with the best available measured effectIn fairness, there remains considerable uncertainty in aerosol effects, but if there will be real progress in narrowing the credible range for climate sensitivity, it has to come from reducing the still too wide uncertainty in aerosol effects, not from flogging climate models which assume aerosol offsets inconsistent with the best available measured effectin aerosol effects, but if there will be real progress in narrowing the credible range for climate sensitivity, it has to come from reducing the still too wide uncertainty in aerosol effects, not from flogging climate models which assume aerosol offsets inconsistent with the best available measured effectin narrowing the credible range for climate sensitivity, it has to come from reducing the still too wide uncertainty in aerosol effects, not from flogging climate models which assume aerosol offsets inconsistent with the best available measured effectin aerosol effects, not from flogging climate models which assume aerosol offsets inconsistent with the best available measured effects.

Since then, despite a massive improvement in models and in our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change, the uncertainty in our projections of temperature change has stubbornly refused to narrow (Houghton et al. 2001).

These uncertainties may partly explain the typically weak correlations found between paleoclimate indices and climate projections, and the difficulty in narrowing the spread in models» climate sensitivity estimates from paleoclimate - based emergent constraints (Schmidt et.

The low variability and uncertainty in the classical model is depicted as a narrow, almost horizontal, band in Fig. 5.

Thus the uncertainty in sensitivity itself argues for insurance against high sensitivity, and narrowing down the range (and particularly excluding the higher end) could significantly change our optimal policy response.»

David, Not a narrow focus at all, but one that recognizes what in climate science is technically reasonable and valid and where there are serious weaknesses and uncertainties (and there are!).

Scientists have found it hard to narrow the uncertainty range on ECS: at a conference in Bavaria in March we looked at evidence that suggested values from one to six degrees or even more.

It had occured to me that a statement saying most warming is anthro with a high degree of certainty is more user friendly for policy then one that narrows in on the higher end of anthro attribution but with the need to explain the sources of the greater uncertainties.

Your answer was «Narrowing of uncertainty in the aerosol indirect effect» Has this been a subject of comment on this blog?

The limited resolution of GRACE affects the uncertainty of total mass loss to a smaller degree; we illustrate the «real» sources of mass changes by including satellite altimetry elevation change results in a joint inversion with GRACE, showing that mass change occurs primarily associated with major outlet glaciers, as well as a narrow coastal band.

The most impressive part about the IPCC reports is how truly huge uncertainties in the individual inputs somehow become very narrow uncertainties when combined.

We shall see in this 3 - part article that emergent constraint approaches have the potential to offer useful insights into cloud behaviour, however the main focus will be on to what extent they narrow the uncertainty range of ECS in GCMs.

That's my point, the dramatic improvement in computer power and model complexity hasn't narrowed the uncertainty on sensitivity nor, brought all the AR4 models, for example, into agreement when recreating 20th C. mean surface temperature.

I'm less happy with my understanding of how it happens that those oscillations also have some «fine structure» that manifests itself in bands of closely spaced narrow lines; that have some intrinsic line width that is a result of Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle, and the lifetimes of the excited states that lead to those intrinsic line widths.

They include those items ignored, glossed over, or deliberately misrepresented; projections are consistently wrong; the science has not advanced, a 2007 paper in Science by Roe and Baker concludes; «The envelope of uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably over the past 30 years, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem»; and claims of impending disasters that simply do not make scientific sense.

There are uncertainties in many legal matters, but that is no excuse for lawyers to abdicate responsibility for guiding their clients: Experienced, competent lawyers can narrow and focus uncertainty, even if they are not psychic.

However, I believe the window of opportunity may be narrow due to future uncertainty of the viability of the program and changing political influences in the coming years.