Sentences with phrase «narrower uncertainty ranges»

Climatologists would have dearly loved to narrow the uncertainty range of climate sensitivity, but until recently there has been not enough solid evidence to justify this.

We shall see in this 3 - part article that emergent constraint approaches have the potential to offer useful insights into cloud behaviour, however the main focus will be on to what extent they narrow the uncertainty range of ECS in GCMs.

Climatologists would have dearly loved to narrow the uncertainty range of climate sensitivity, but until recently there has been not enough solid evidence to justify this.

Scientists have found it hard to narrow the uncertainty range on ECS: at a conference in Bavaria in March we looked at evidence that suggested values from one to six degrees or even more.

We shall see in this 3 - part article that emergent constraint approaches have the potential to offer useful insights into cloud behaviour, however the main focus will be on to what extent they narrow the uncertainty range of ECS in GCMs.

Not exact matches

That's about as narrow a range of uncertainty as the market ever creates.

The study could help narrow the range of uncertainty around how climate change is expected to alter California's precipitation patterns.

In isolation, a narrow range bar signals uncertainty while a wide range bar shows wild trading.

Throw in the unemployment rate (as a measure of buyer uncertainty) and the and the range narrows further.

The ranges are narrower than in the TAR mainly because of improved information about some uncertainties in the projected contributions15.

While Annan and Hargreaves gave an upper limit (at 5 %) of 4.5 C, Annan suggests that this is actually being generous with the uncertainty in his blog — not that this matters so much until the technical paper comes out which demonstrates a narrower range.

Pressing the frontiers of climate science and related research is vital, but it's wishful thinking to expect further science to substantially narrow uncertainties on time scales that matter when it comes to regional or short - term climate forecasting, the range of possible warming from a big buildup of carbon dioxide, the impact of greenhouse forcing on rare extremes and the like.

Steven E. Koonin, once the Obama administration's undersecretary of energy for science and chief scientist at BP, stirred up a swirl of turbulence in global warming discourse this week after The Wall Street Journal published «Climate Science is Not Settled,» his essay calling for more frankness about areas of deep uncertainty in climate science, more research to narrow error ranges and more acknowledgement that society's decisions on energy and climate policy are based on values as much as data.

As already noted, my iRF efficacy uncertainty ranges are much narrower than Marvel et al.'s.

Without being able to properly narrow those ranges of uncertainty, CO2 has to be the problem.

So, recent research is narrowing the range of uncertainty of the aci, and overall reducing the magnitude of the aci effect.

Complexity of the climate system and uncertainty surrounding input data preclude extremely accurate predictions, but they are not incompatible with an ability to approximate real world outcomes within a range narrow enough to justify future planning on the basis of reasonable probabilities.

If you can't narrow it down because of the uncertainties, you supply a range from best case to worse case and let the pollies decide what is acceptable — that's their job, right?

The hope is that new research can help narrow the range of uncertainty.

In fairness, there remains considerable uncertainty in aerosol effects, but if there will be real progress in narrowing the credible range for climate sensitivity, it has to come from reducing the still too wide uncertainty in aerosol effects, not from flogging climate models which assume aerosol offsets inconsistent with the best available measured effects.

The outcome is relatively predictable, with a narrow range of uncertainty.

The problem seems to be that even during that time, the 2 - 4.5 C estimated range hasn't narrowed much, and so the same level of uncertainty prevails.

Thus the uncertainty in sensitivity itself argues for insurance against high sensitivity, and narrowing down the range (and particularly excluding the higher end) could significantly change our optimal policy response.»

While different researchers have different best estimates (James Annan, for example, says his best estimate is 2.5 C), uncertainties still mean that estimates can not be narrowed down to a far narrower and more precise range.

The quartiles for July are 4.2 and 4.7 million square kilometers, a rather narrow range given that the uncertainty of individual estimates are on the order of 0.5 million square kilometers.

Zhai makes much less allowance for uncertainty than does Brient Alb, hence its narrow constrained ECS range.

For two decades, those estimates have run from 1.5 C to 5C, a wide range; the new research narrowed that range to between 3C and 5C, by closely examining the biggest cause of uncertainty: clouds.