However, a clear understanding of how
national emissions reductions commitments affect global climate change impacts requires an understanding of complex relationships between atmospheric ghg concentrations, likely global temperature changes in response to ghg atmospheric concentrations, rates of ghg emissions reductions over time and all of this requires making assumptions about how much CO2 from emissions will remain in the atmosphere, how sensitive the global climate change is to atmospheric ghg concentrations, and when the international community begins to get on a serious emissions reduction pathway guided by equity considerations.
The next entry in the series will look at the ethical issues entailed by the need for
national emissions reductions commitments to be based on «equity» and «justice».
In the absence of a court adjudicating what equity requires of nations in setting their national climate change commitments, a possibility but far from a guarantee under existing international and national law (for an explanation of some of the litigation issues, Buiti, 2011), the best hope for encouraging nations to improve the ambition of
their national emissions reductions commitments on the basis of equity and justice is the creation of a mechanism under the UNFCCC that requires nations to explain their how they quantitatively took equity into account in establishing their INDCs and why their INDC is consistent with the nation's ethical obligations to people who are most vulnerable to climate change and the above principles of international law.
One of the ethical issues raised by these facts is whether nations which may have much smaller
national emissions reductions commitment obligations for the nation derived from an acceptable equity framework should nevertheless be expected to limit activities of individuals causing high levels of ghg emissions.
One of the ethical issues raised by these facts is is whether nations which may have much smaller
national emissions reductions commitment obligations for the nation derived from an acceptable equity framework should nevertheless be expected to limit activities of individuals causing high levels of ghg emissions
Not exact matches
But we don't yet have a
national emissions reduction target that any credible expert believes is capable of delivering on our Paris
commitments for the machinery to deliver.
With a sustained
national commitment, the United States could obtain substantial energy - efficiency improvements, new sources of energy, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions through the accelerated deployment of existing and emerging energy technologies, according to the prepublication copy of the capstone report of the America's Energy Future project of the National Research Council, the operating arm of the National Academy of Sciences and National Academy of Engi
national commitment, the United States could obtain substantial energy - efficiency improvements, new sources of energy, and
reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions through the accelerated deployment of existing and emerging energy technologies, according to the prepublication copy of the capstone report of the America's Energy Future project of the
National Research Council, the operating arm of the National Academy of Sciences and National Academy of Engi
National Research Council, the operating arm of the
National Academy of Sciences and National Academy of Engi
National Academy of Sciences and
National Academy of Engi
National Academy of Engineering.
All -LCB- developed country Parties -RCB--LCB- all Annex I Parties and all current European Union (EU) member States, EU candidate countries and potential candidate countries that are not included in Annex I to the Convention -RCB--LCB- Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries, countries that are not OECD members but whose economic development stages are equivalent to those of the OECD members, and countries that voluntarily wish to be treated as developed countries -RCB--LCB- shall -RCB--LCB- should -RCB- adopt legally binding mitigation
commitments or actions including economy - wide quantified
emission limitation and
reduction objectives16 for the period from -LCB- 1990 -RCB--LCB- 2013 -RCB--LCB- XXXX -RCB- until -LCB- 2017 -RCB--LCB- 2020 -RCB--LCB- XXXX -RCB-, while ensuring comparability of efforts among them, taking into account differences in their
national circumstances.
In addition, because each
national emission reduction target
commitment must be understood as an implicit position of the nation on safe ghg atmospheric concentration levels, setting
national ghg
emissions goals must be set with full knowledge of how any
national target will affect the global problem.
This technical document provides the following information: - An update of global greenhouse gas
emission estimates, based on a number of different authoritative scientific sources; - An overview of
national emission levels, both current (2010) and projected (2020) consistent with current pledges and other
commitments; - An estimate of the level of global
emissions consistent with the two degree target in 2020, 2030 and 2050; - An update of the assessment of the «
emissions gap» for 2020; - A review of selected examples of the rapid progress being made in different parts of the world to implement policies already leading to substantial
emission reductions and how they can be scaled up and replicated in other countries, with the view to bridging the
emissions gap.
Requires the President, beginning June 30, 2018, and every four years thereafter, to determine, for each eligible industrial sector, whether more than 85 % of U.S. imports for that sector are from countries that: (1) are parties to international agreements requiring economy - wide binding
national commitments at least as stringent as those of the United States; (2) have annual energy or GHG intensities for the sector comparable or better than the equivalent U.S. sector; or (3) are parties to an international or bilateral
emission reduction agreement for that sector.
The extent to which nations make ghg
emissions reductions commitments based upon «equity» rather than
national interest alone.
C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, 12 California, 7, 68, 102, 128, 169 - 170, 187, 196, 232 - 234, 245 California Energy Commission, 232 Cambridge Media Environment Programme (CMEP), 167 - 168 Cambridge University, 102 Cameron, David, 11, 24, 218 Cameroon, 25 Campbell, Philip, 165 Canada, 22, 32, 64, 111, 115, 130, 134, 137, 156 - 157, 166, 169, 177, 211, 222, 224 - 226, 230, 236, 243 Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS), 15 Cap - and - trade, 20, 28, 40 - 41, 44, 170, 175 allowances (permits), 41 - 42, 176, 243 Capitalism, 34 - 35, 45 Capps, Lois, 135 Car (see vehicle) Carbon, 98, 130 Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), 192 Carbon Capture and Storage Association, 164 Carbon credits (offsets), 28 - 29, 42 - 43, 45 Carbon Cycle, 80 - 82 Carbon dioxide (CO2), 9, 18, 23, 49 - 51, 53, 55, 66 - 67, 72 - 89, 91, 98 - 99, 110, 112, 115, 118, 128 - 132, 137, 139, 141 - 144, 152, 240
emissions, 12, 18 - 25, 28 - 30, 32 - 33, 36 - 38, 41 - 44, 47, 49, 53, 55, 71 - 72, 74, 77 - 78, 81 - 82, 108 - 109, 115, 132, 139, 169, 186, 199 - 201, 203 - 204, 209 - 211, 214, 217, 219, 224, 230 - 231, 238, 241, 243 - 244 Carbon Dioxide Analysis Center, 19 Carbon Expo, 42 Carbon, footprint, 3, 13, 29, 35, 41, 45, 110, 132 tax, 20, 44, 170 trading, 13, 20, 40, 43, 44, 176, 182 Carbon monoxide (CO), 120 Carbon
Reduction Commitment (CRC), 44 Carlin, George, 17 Carter, Bob, 63 Carter, Jimmy, 186, 188 Cato Institute, 179 CBS, 141, 146 Center for Disease Control, 174 Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, 62, 139 Centre for Policy Studies, 219 CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research), 96 Chavez, Hugo, 34 Chicago Tribune, 146 China, 29, 32 - 33, 60 - 62, 120, 169, 176, 187 - 188, 211, 216, 225 - 226, 242 - 243 China's
National Population and Planning Commission, 33 Chinese Academy of Sciences, 60 Chirac, Jacques, 36 Chlorofluorocarbons, 42 - 43, 50 Choi, Yong - Sang, 88 Christy, John, 105 Churchill, Winston, 214, 220 Chu, Steven, 187 Citibank (Citigroup), 40, 176 Clean Air Act, 85, 128 - 129 Clean Development Mechanism, 42 Climate Action Partnership, 14 Climate alarm, 4, 13, 21, 32, 35, 38, 56, 102 - 103, 115 - 117, 120, 137, 156, 168, 173, 182 Climate Audit, 66 Climate change, adaptation, 39, 110, 112 mitigation, 16, 39, 110 Climate Change and the Failure of Democracy, 34 Climate Change: Picturing the Science, 121 Climate Change Reconsidered, 242 Climate conference, 38 Cancun, 18, 29, 36 - 37, 124 - 125, 242 Copenhagen, 33, 36, 109, 125, 156, 158, 175, 241 - 242 Durban, 13, 36 - 37, 166, 242 - 243 Climategate, 2, 67, 152, 158 - 170, 180, 182, 242 Climate Protection Agreement, 12 Climate Research Unit (CRU), 48, 67, 120, 147, 152 - 153, 158 - 160, 162 - 163, 165 - 167, 169 Climate Science Register, 142 Climatism, definition, 2, 7 Clinton, Bill, 176, 178 Clinton Global Initiative, 176 CLOUD project, 96 Club of Rome, 21, 186 CO2Science, 59, 61 - 62, 66, 131 Coal, 19 - 20, 39 - 41, 80, 126, 128 - 129, 175, 185 - 186, 188 - 190, 192 - 196, 199 - 201, 209, 214, 217, 219, 222, 229 Coase, Ronald, 145 Coca - Cola, 138 Cogley, Graham, 156 Cohen, David, 220 Colorado State University, 117, 181 Columbia University, 7 Columbus, Christopher, 58 Computer models, 16, 51 - 53, 56, 67, 72, 74,77 - 79, 82, 87, 89 - 91, 94, 105, 110 - 111, 120, 124, 138 - 140, 168, 171,173, 181, 238, 240, 246 Conference on the Changing Atmosphere, 15 Consensus, scientific, 12 Copenhagen Business School, 134 Coral, 53 Corporate Average Fuel Economy, 22 - 23 Cosmic Rays, 72, 93 - 99, 180 Credit Suisse, 176 Crow, Cheryl, 30 Crowley, Tom, 167 Cuadrilla Resources, 224 - 225 Curry, Judith, 164, 167 Cycles, natural, 3, 16, 57, 62 - 63, 66 - 69, 72, 80, 99, 103, 138, 238, 240 Milankovich, 62, 67, 80 Cyprus, 134 Czech Republic, 12, 37
As a result there is a huge gap between
national commitments to reduce greenhouse gas (ghg)
emissions that have been made thus far under the UNFCCC and global ghg
emissions reductions that are necessary to limit warming to 2 oC, a warming limit that has been agreed to by the international community as necessary to prevent very dangerous climate change.
(34)
National Mining AssociationWashington D.C. «
Commitment to Continued Mercury
Emissions Reductions, and Air Quality Improvement»
«The first major review in 2018 of
national mitigation
commitments, which is meant to lead to governments increasing their 2025 - 2030
emission reduction targets by 2020, could be a crucial first test of the Paris Agreement's effectiveness.»
For this reason, a joint research project between Widener University Commonwealth Law School and the University of Auckland recommended in Paris that
national climate
commitments be stated in tons of
emissions over a specific period rather than percent
reductions by a given date because waiting to the end of specific period to achieve percent
reductions will cause the total tons of ghg emitted to be higher than if
reductions are made earlier.
In the executive summary (which can be downloaded in full here), we conclude that among the design elements the 2015 agreement should avoid because they would inhibit linkage are so - called «supplementarity requirements» that require parties to accomplish all (or a large, specified share) of their
emissions -
reduction commitments within their
national borders.
Although there is a difference of opinion in the «equity» literature about how to consider valid equity considerations including per capita, historical
emissions levels, and the economic capabilities of nations to fiance non-fossil energies, all nations agree that
national commitments about ghg
emissions reductions must consider fairness.
The steepness of these curves superimposed on actual
national ghg
emissions levels is an indication of the enormity of the challenge for the international community because the
emissions reduction curves are much steeper than
reductions that can be expected under projections of what current
national commitments are likely to achieve if fully implemented.
In fact, the Copenhagen Accord and the Cancun agreements allowed each nation to identify its
emissions reduction commitment based upon voluntary
national considerations without regard to equity.
China and other developing countries are unlikely to agree to binding
emissions reductions, and the «
national schedules» that some have proposed to take their place are unlikely to appease domestic constituencies in the United States and elsewhere concerned that domestic
emissions -
reduction commitments will further exacerbate the economic advantages that China and other developing economies have on their competitors in the developed world.
It would appear that some of the
national commitments that are referenced in the Cancun agreements are based upon grandfathering
emissions reductions from existing levels not on what justice requires of nations.
One such common approach to
national ghg
emissions reductions commitments that fails to satisfy any ethical scrutiny is the claim that all nations must reduce
emissions by the same amount without regard to whether a nation is a large or small contributor to the climate change problem, an approach often referred to as «grandfathering» or equal
reductions from existing
emissions levels.
The second is making those
national commitments to
emissions reductions.
For instance, a recent World Bank paper recommends that climate negotiations abandon attempts to achieve
national ghg
emissions reductions commitments based upon «equitable» obligations after a somewhat rigorous review of the extant literature on «equity» and a brief summary of what has happened in the negotiations.
Because allocation of
national ghg
emissions is inherently a matter of justice, nations should be required to explain how their ghg
emissions reduction commitments both will lead to a specific atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration that is not dangerous, that is, what remaining ghg CO2 equivalent budget they have assumed that their
commitment will achieve, and on what equitable basis have they determined their fair share of that budget.
While there have been negotiations under way on the new agreement, there has also been an attempt to increase
national commitments on greenhouse gas (ghg)
emissions reductions in the short - term because mainstream science is telling nations that much greater
reductions in
emissions are necessary in the next few years to maintain any hope of keeping warming below 20 C, a warming limit that all nations have agreed should not be exceeded to give some hope of preventing catastrophic warming.
Seen that it will create a lot of demand for carbon credits in the future, a key issue is to ensure that
emissions reductions are not counted towards both
national commitments under the Paris Agreement and the targets set under the future aviation offsetting scheme.
Along this line there are several issues in particular about which greater awareness is needed including greater public understanding of the ethical implications of any nation's ghg
emissions reduction commitment in regard to an atmospheric stabilization goal the
commitment is seeking to achieve and the coherence or lack there of the
national commitment to an acceptable equity framework.
In light of the fact that any attempt to reach consensus on the operationalization of equity will run into conflicts with
national interest, the paper recommends a completely new approach that would fund a new carbon revolution while abandoning the current approach in which nations make individual
emissions reductions commitments consistent with what equity requires of them.
The firs two papers looked at ethical issues entailed by the need for increasing ambition for
national ghg
emissions reduction commitments in the short - term and the second examined ethical issues created by urgent needs of nations to commit to significant ghg
emissions reductions in the medium - to long - term.
The same naming and shaming approach to equity and
national ghg
emissions reductions commitments should be followed on climate change
emissions reductions commitments by adopting better understanding of the ethical bankruptcy of some nations» approach to climate change.
In this regard media coverage that compares
national commitments with other nations»
commitments without acknowledging that equity and justice considerations could lead to morally different
emissions reductions should be avoided because these comparisons are potentially misleading
The need to turn up the visibility on the ethical and equitable unacceptability of
national ghg
commitments is not only important to get nations to increase their
emissions reductions commitments in international negotiations, it is also important to change the way climate change policies are debated at the
national level when climate change policies are formed.
Each researcher answered the same 10 questions which sought to determine how equity, ethics, and justice considerations affected
national policy formation on greenhouse gas
emissions reductions targets and
commitments and on funding adaptation, l, osses and damages in vulnerable developing countries.
Although reasonable people may disagree on what equity and justice may require of
national ghg
emission reduction commitments, there are only a few considerations that are arguably morally relevant to
national climate targets.
Any
national ghg
emissions reduction commitment is implicitly a position on two ethical questions, namely, first, what safe atmospheric ghg concentration level the
commitment aims to achieve and, second, what equity framework or principles of distributive justice the percent
reduction is based on.
As we shall see, these countries, among others, have continued to negotiate as if: (a) they only need to commit to reduce their greenhouse gas
emission if other nations commit to do so, in other words that their
national interests limit their international obligations, (b) any
emissions reductions commitments can be determined and calculated without regard to what is each nation's fair share of safe global
emissions, (c) large emitting nations have no duty to compensate people or nations that are vulnerable to climate change for climate change damages or reasonable adaptation responses, and (d) they often justify their own failure to actually reduce
emissions to their fair share of safe global
emissions on the inability to of the international community to reach an adequate solution under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
There is a 15 - 22 gigatonne gap between the current climate
commitments nations made in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the respective
emissions reductions needed to stay on track to limit the global temperature rise to 2C or 1.5 C. Subnational action can help bridge this gap and support
national governments as they raise their climate
commitments in the coming years.
A strong ethical case can be made that if nations have duties to limit their ghg
emissions to their fair share of safe global
emissions, a conclusion that follows both as a matter of ethics and justice and several international legal principles including, among others, the «no harm principle,» and promises nations made in the 1992 UNFCCC to adopt policies and measures required to prevent dangerous anthropocentric interference with the climate system in accordance with equity and common but differentiated responsibilities, nations have a duty to clearly explain how their
national ghg
emissions reductions commitments arguably satisfy their ethical obligations to limit their ghg
emissions to the nation's fair share of safe global
emissions.
We already know that current
national climate
commitments cover only one - third of the
emissions reductions needed to achieve that target — and the IPCC report should assess the feasibility of technologies and policy options to get us there.
The obvious place to look for increases in ambition in
national commitments is from nations that are obviously above
emissions reduction levels that equity would require of them.
Any
national ghg
emissions reduction commitment is implicitly a position on two ethical questions, namely, first, what safe atmospheric ghg concentration level the
commitment is designed to achieve and, second, what equity framework or principles of distributive justice the INDC is based on.
Although most nations have now made some
commitments that have included ghg
emissions reductions targets starting in the Copenhagen COP in 2009, almost all nations appear to be basing their
national targets not on what equity would require of them but at levels determined by their economic and
national interests.
Since total global ghg
emissions in 2010 already stood at 50.1 GtCO2e, and are increasing every year, reaching a 44 GtCO2e target by 2020 is extraordinarily daunting and much greater ambition is needed from the global community than can be seen in existing
national ghg
emissions reduction commitments.
Yet hardly any nations are explaining their
national ghg
emissions reductions commitments on the basis of how they are congruent with their equitable obligations and the international media for the most part is ignoring this vital part of this civilization challenging drama unfolding in Warsaw.
The
commitments to
emissions reductions, which will be included in the Accord by the end of January (but can already be surprised from
national pledges), would allow warming to reach at least 3 °C above pre-industrial levels, according to the best available science (and according to a leaked UN document).
At The Climate Reality Project we believe COP21 is our best chance yet to secure a strong international agreement that includes meaningful
emissions reductions commitments based on
national circumstances, a system of periodic review for these
commitments and a long - term goal of net zero carbon
emissions.