Not exact matches
Looking at shifts
in Manley's winter temperatures from year to year, he says, gives a good reading of important
natural cycles that influence climate, such as
changes in ocean circulation like the North Atlantic Oscillation.
He believes that
changes in ocean circulation have warmed the Atlantic and increased hurricane activity
in the past decade and that this is simply the result of normal oscillation
in natural climate cycles.
Your statement that «Thus it is
natural to look at the real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves
in the same way (and it appears to, since model hindcasts of past
changes match observations very well)» seems to indicate that you think there will be no
changes in ocean circulation or land use trends, nor any subsequent
changes in cloud responses thereto or other atmospheric
circulation.
The goal is to capture
natural variations
in the climate, like
changes in ocean circulation or features like the El Niño Southern Oscillation, that are swamped by the signal of human - caused warming when looking out to the end of the century.
The first collection of papers establishes that (a) decadal and multi-decadal
ocean circulation patterns (AMO, PDO, NAO, ENSO) have significantly modulated precipitation and temperature
changes in recent decades, and the second collection of papers confirm that (b)
natural ocean oscillations are,
in turn, modulated by solar activity.
Natural factors contributing to past climate
change are well documented and include
changes in atmospheric chemistry,
ocean circulation patterns, solar radiation intensity, snow and ice cover, Earth's orbital cycle around the sun, continental position, and volcanic eruptions.
Another key:
in ocean circulation over 500 to a thousands years or more, these
natural time frames no longer apply to rates of
change today.
Your statement that «Thus it is
natural to look at the real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves
in the same way (and it appears to, since model hindcasts of past
changes match observations very well)» seems to indicate that you think there will be no
changes in ocean circulation or land use trends, nor any subsequent
changes in cloud responses thereto or other atmospheric
circulation.
On the other hand, the AMO hypothesis asserts that
natural changes in the deep water
circulation of the Atlantic
Ocean drive hurricane season SST resulting
in changes to both hurricane activity and GT.
There is also a
natural variability of the climate system (about a zero reference point) that produces El Nino and La Nina effects arising from
changes in ocean circulation patterns that can make the global temperature increase or decrease, over and above the global warming due to CO2.
The available data are insufficient to say if the
changes in O2 are caused by
natural variability or are trends that are likely to persist
in the future, but they do indicate that large - scale
changes in ocean physics influence
natural biogeochemical cycles, and thus the cycles of O2 and CO2 are likely to undergo
changes if
ocean circulation changes persist
in the future.
4
Natural Processes that
Change Climate
Ocean Circulations Changes in ocean circulation also can result in short - term climate fluctuation EX: El
Ocean Circulations Changes in ocean circulation also can result in short - term climate fluctuation EX: El
ocean circulation also can result
in short - term climate fluctuation EX: El Niño
Energy budgets
change all the time from large
natural variations
in ocean and atmospheric
circulation.
South America colliding with Central America was once the cause of vast
changes to
ocean circulation patterns, and a
change in Earth's climate — but that «
natural» explanation no longer applies
in the 21st century.
The advantage of recognising a reversed sign for the solar effect high up
in the atmosphere is that it enables a scenario whereby the bottom up effects of
ocean cycles and the top down effects of solar variability can be seen to be engaged
in a complex ever
changing dance with the primary climate response being
changes in the tropospheric air
circulation systems to give us the observed
natural climate variability via cyclical latitudinal shifts
in all the air
circulation systems and notably the jet streams.
Clouds
change in response to
changes in ocean and atmosphere
circulation - part of the
natural variability of the system.
The most
natural type of long term variability is
in my view based on slowly varying
changes in ocean circulation, which doesn't necessarily involve major transfer of heat from one place to another but influences cloudiness and other large scale weather patterns and through that the net energy flux of the Earth system.
LONDON, 17 March, 2017 — Scientists have calculated that at least 30 % and perhaps one half of the decline
in Arctic summer sea ice could be attributed to
natural causes —
changes of
ocean and atmospheric
circulation that happen according to some long - term cycle.
Regional
circulation patterns have significantly
changed in recent years.2 For example,
changes in the Arctic Oscillation can not be explained by
natural variation and it has been suggested that they are broadly consistent with the expected influence of human - induced climate
change.3 The signature of global warming has also been identified
in recent
changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a pattern of variability
in sea surface temperatures
in the northern Pacific
Ocean.4
The
natural internal variability of the climate system arises from factors such as El Niño, fluctuations
in the thermohaline
circulation, and
changes in ocean heat content.
These climate
changes are a result of human and
natural climate forcings and feedbacks — the relative role of each
in altering atmospheric and
ocean circulation features, and even the global annual average radiative forcing, however, is still uncertain.
However, it is possible that long - term
natural variability, rooted
in changes in the
ocean circulation, underlies much of this variability over multiple decades (8 — 12).
There are also other
natural «modes of variability» which may be affected by a climate
change, for instance if the heat transport
in the
oceans are to
change (e.g. the Atlantic meridional overturning
circulation AMOC).