Do you mean that we should only study
natural influences on climate and ignore anything humans might be doing?
Which is why the IPCC (AR5) claims
natural influences on climate (which they effectively list as TSI only) are next to zero.
His research focuses on how human and
natural influences on climate contribute to observed climate change and risks of extreme weather and in quantifying their implications for long - range climate forecasts.
The better scientists can pin down
natural influences on climate, he says, the better they can understand the impact of human activities.
Not exact matches
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While
natural sources of
climate variability are significant, multiple lines of evidence indicate that human
influences have had an increasingly dominant effect
on the
climate warming observed since the mid-twentieth century.
In the GRL study, researchers used a statistical model based
on historical
climate data to separate how much of the extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey was due to
natural influences and how much was due to human
influences.
The model also accounted for
natural drivers of change, including the direct
influence of increased carbon dioxide
on ocean - carbon uptake and the indirect effect that a changing
climate has
on the physical state of the ocean and its relationship to atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Tans initially expected February to be the first month of the year above 400 ppm, but predicting that threshold is tricky because CO2 concentrations depend both
on emissions and
natural ecosystem processes, which can be
influenced by
climate phenomena like the El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle, he said.
«This quantitative attribution of human and
natural climate influences on the IPWP expansion increases our confidence in the understanding of the causes of past changes as well as for projections of future changes under further greenhouse warming,» commented Seung - Ki Min, a professor with POSTECH's School of Environmental Science and Engineering.
Long underappreciated, puny motes of
natural dust turn out to have a tremendous
influence on climate, cloud formation, and the fertilization of oceans and rain forests.
The researchers determined that
natural influences on Earth's
climate, such as those caused by variations in its orbit around the sun, could affect the strength of El Niño events.
The high temperatures and frequent heat waves were the combined result of
natural variation and human
influence on the
climate.
«In order to quantify the anthropogenic
influences on climate, we need accurate measurements of the
natural climate - forcing agents, the most important of which is the sun,» associate professor Peter Pilewskie said.
Three Australasian researchers have shown that
natural forces are the dominant
influence on climate, in a study just published in the highly - regarded Journal of Geophysical Research.
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have all been found to significantly
influence changes in surface air temperature and rainfall (
climate)
on decadal and multi-decadal scales, and these
natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar activity.
It's El Niño «Three Australasian researchers have shown that
natural forces are the dominant
influence on climate, in a study just published in the highly - regarded Journal of Geophysical Research.
The ecosystems chapter concludes that, «Human - induced
climate change, in conjunction with other stresses, is exerting major
influences on natural environments and biodiversity, and these
influences are generally expected to grow with increased warming.»
Observed changes in ocean heat content have now been shown to be inconsistent with simulated
natural climate variability, but consistent with a combination of
natural and anthropogenic
influences both
on a global scale, and in individual ocean basins.
Sometime this century the day will arrive when the human
influence on the
climate will overwhelm all other
natural factors.
It seems oddly tendentious to deny for instance the role of
natural variability
on the basis that some of the recent changes in these long standing
climate patterns may be
influenced by greenhouse gases.
Using this new information as well as other independent studies
on methane emissions published since 2011, and the latest information
on the
climate influence of methane compared to carbon dioxide from the latest synthesis report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released in September of this year, it is clear that natural gas is no bridg
climate influence of methane compared to carbon dioxide from the latest synthesis report from the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change released in September of this year, it is clear that natural gas is no bridg
Climate Change released in September of this year, it is clear that
natural gas is no bridge fuel.
While Pam and Haiyan, as well as other recent tropical cyclone disasters, can not be uniquely pinned
on global warming, they have no doubt been
influenced by
natural and anthropogenic
climate change and they do remind us of our continuing vulnerability to such storms.
THEN STEFAN SAYS EXACTLY WHAT THE PRESIDENT WAS INFERRING IN HIS PRESS CONFERENCE; and what has been repeatedly said already in the IPCC Reports: «While Pam and Haiyan, as well as other recent tropical cyclone disasters, can not be uniquely pinned
on global warming, they have no doubt been
influenced by
natural and anthropogenic
climate change and they do remind us of our continuing vulnerability to such storms.»
UV radiation levels in the stratosphere or cosmic ray
influences on low level cloud formation) may be amplified by
natural resonance matching to the overall
climate system.
The EPA continues: «Nevertheless, the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) stated there was a «discernible» human influence on climate; and that the observed warming trend is «unlikely to be entirely natural in origin.
Climate Change (IPCC) stated there was a «discernible» human
influence on climate; and that the observed warming trend is «unlikely to be entirely natural in origin.
climate; and that the observed warming trend is «unlikely to be entirely
natural in origin.»
The lines of evidence and analysis supporting the mainstream position
on climate change are diverse and robust — embracing a huge body of direct measurements by a variety of methods in a wealth of locations
on the Earth's surface and from space, solid understanding of the basic physics governing how energy flow in the atmosphere interacts with greenhouse gases, insights derived from the reconstruction of causes and consequences of millions of years of
natural climatic variations, and the results of computer models that are increasingly capable of reproducing the main features of Earth's
climate with and without human
influences.
So: The study finds a fingerprint of anthropogenic
influences on large scale increase in precipitation extremes, with remaining uncertainties — namely that there is still a possibility that the widespread increase in heavy precipitation could be due to an unusual event of
natural variability.The intensification of extreme rainfall is expected with warming, and there is a clear physical mechanism for it, but it is never possible to completely separate a signal of external forcing from
climate variability — the separation will always be statistical in nature.
Natural climate variability — including the periodic swings between El Nià ± o and La Nià ± a conditions in the Pacific — will sometimes overshadow global warming's
influence on hurricanes, Trenberth said.
In essence Tung & Zhou are dining at the denialist's last - chance saloon by invoking a 60 - year
natural cycle (their cycle of choice being AMO) resulting in a reduced anthropogenic
influence on climate, although they make sure to not directly challenge
climate sensitivity by asserting that their findings will impact
on assessment of net anthropogenic forcing and leave
climate sensitivity estimates unchallenged.
A series of sensitivity tests show that our detection results are robust to observational data coverage change, interpolation methods,
influence of
natural climate variability
on observations, and different model sampling (see Supplementary Information).
«Few of those familiar with the
natural heat exchanges of the atmosphere, which go into makings of our
climate and weather, would be prepared to admit that activities of man could have any
influence on phenomena of so vast a scale.
Such reports could be
on topics like
climate change's
influence on hurricanes, the so - called «pause» in the increase of average global surface temperatures or the
climate implications of
natural gas.
Has there really been a substantial neglect of solar
influences on climate and
natural internal variability?
and «We need to take a pragmatic approach to resolve potential issues due to a variety of
natural and manmade
influences on future
climate.»
This has resulted in a very substantial neglect of solar
influences on climate and
natural internal variability.
So, given that the
climate varies due to both
natural and human
influences (I don't think anybody disputes that), isn't it
on Trenberth to prove the human
influences outweight the
natural, before we switch the null from
natural to human
influenced?
Our ability to quantify the human
influence on global
climate is currently limited because the expected signal is still emerging from the noise of
natural variability, and because there are uncertainties in key factors.
On the question of hurricanes, the theoretical arguments that more energy and water vapor in the atmosphere should lead to stronger storms are really sound (after all, storm intensity increases going from pole toward equator), but determining precisely how human
influences (so including GHGs [greenhouse gases] and aerosols, and land cover change) should be changing hurricanes in a system where there are
natural external (solar and volcanoes) and internal (e.g., ENSO, NAO [El Nino - Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation]-RRB-
influences is quite problematic — our
climate models are just not good enough yet to carry out the types of sensitivity tests that have been done using limited area hurricane models run for relatively short times.
Further analyses of long coupled model runs will be critical to resolve the
influence of the ocean thermohaline circulation and other
natural climate variations
on Arctic
climate and to determine whether
natural climate variability will make the Arctic more or less vulnerable to anthropogenic global warming.»
I wish to highlight an earlier comment I made...»
Climate is
influenced by dozens of
natural factors, which are like dozens of teeter - totters lined up, where down
on the right = cooling, and down
on the left = warming.
In addition, the amended standards add «
natural forces» as an area of study for its possible
influence on climate change.
The apparent conflict illustrates that understanding the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and other
natural variability, is critical for understanding the human
influence on climate Yet, they are largely ignored by the IPCC, and its followers including NOAA, and NASA.
There are much better arguments
on other items where (C) AGW is
on thin ice:
climate models which fail
on a lot of items like cloud cover, overestimate the
influence of aerosols, can't cope with
natural variability and therefore fail in their temperature forecasts.
«multiple lines of evidence indicate that human
influences have had an increasingly dominant effect
on the
climate warming observed since the mid-twentieth century» - a handful of papers a year that only most ardent warmists can find against the thousand of
natural influence showing papers.
This may be true (there is still plenty of debate
on that point) but since there are no good explanations of past
natural variability, that merely points out our ignorance of all the factors
influencing the
climate system.
Betts says:» the authors seem to assume that
climate science is entirely focussed
on anthropogenic
climate change, and that
natural variability is only researched as a supplementary issue in order to support the conclusions regarding anthropogenic
influence.»
Most global warming skeptics believe that humans have some measurable impact
on global temperatures and the
climate, but that
natural climate forces, over longer periods, will overwhelm the human
influence... in addition, skeptics believe that the human
influence will not result in the hysterical catastrophic
climate disasters presented by doomsday pundits...
In fact, they state that the data «clearly show» that «strong
natural variability has been characteristic of the Arctic at all time scales considered,» and they reiterate that the data suggest «that the human
influence on rate and size of
climate change thus far does not stand out strongly from other causes of
climate change.»»
While
natural sources of
climate variability are significant, multiple lines of evidence indicate that human
influences have had an increasingly dominant effect
on global
climate warming observed since the mid-twentieth century.