Sentences with phrase «natural modes of variability»

In addition to regional climate change being strongly affected by natural modes of variability, geographic differences in climate change are related to the uneven spatial distribution of aerosols and tropospheric ozone.

The NAO and NAM (or AO as some call it) are natural modes of variability.

The authors conclude that the there is a higher retreat - rate for marine terminating glaciers in the recent warm period; in the 1930s when there is a natural mode of variability active that caused regional temperatures around Greenland to be anomalously warm, there was a higher retreat rate for land - terminating glaciers (the lower retreat rate today is in part because they are currently smaller).

Not exact matches

«Although this widening is considered a «natural» mode of climate variability, implying tropical widening is primarily driven by internal dynamics of the climate system, we also show that anthropogenic pollutants have driven trends in the PDO,» Allen said.

Hansen 1988 did use other forcing but he decoupled the ocean feedback writing, «we stress that this «surprise - free» representation of the ocean excludes the effects of natural variability of ocean transports and the possibility of switches in the basic mode of ocean circulation.»

«There is high confidence that the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will remain the dominant mode of natural climate variability in the 21st century with global influences in the 21st century, and that regional rainfall variability it induces likely intensifies.

A natural coupled mode of climate variability associated with both surface temperature variations tied to El Niño and atmospheric circulation changes across the equatorial Pacific (see also «Southern Oscillation Index»).

Substitute the words «modes of natural climate variability» for «electricity and magnetism,» and well..., hopefully the point is made.

But, on the basis of studies of nonlinear chaotic models with preferred states or «regimes», it has been argued, that the spatial patterns of the response to anthropogenic forcing may in fact project principally onto modes of natural climate variability.

In many cases, it is now often possible to make and defend quantitative statements about the extent to which human - induced climate change (or another causal factor, such as a specific mode of natural variability) has influenced either the magnitude or the probability of occurrence of specific types of events or event classes.»

It seemed to us that the impact would be on the «normal modes» of natural variability.

Specifically, the claim was made that temperatures in Churchill, Manitoba (close to the center of the Western Hudson Bay population of bears) had not risen, and that instead, any multidecadal variations in temperatures affecting the bears were related to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), a mode of natural variability.

An increasing number of Holocene proxy records are of sufficiently high resolution to describe the climate variability on centennial to millennial time scales, and to identify possible natural quasi-periodic modes of climate variability at these time scales (Haug et al., 2001; Gupta et al., 2003).

It is important to note that as the planet continues to warm, new high temperature records and some other types of extremes will increasingly occur, but where they occur in a given year will not be predictable due to natural modes of climate variability.

Modes of natural climate variability are those forces of nature by which people who know nothing about modes of natural climate variability can explain everytModes of natural climate variability are those forces of nature by which people who know nothing about modes of natural climate variability can explain everytmodes of natural climate variability can explain everything.

Part of this is a resolution issue, but the more important issue is the modes of natural internal variability, which the climate models do a so - so job on in a large - scale sense, but not in translating the impacts to a regional level.

(Note: the biggest issue is climate sensitivity, with a secondary issue being the magnitude of modes of natural internal variability on multi-decadal time scales, and tertiary issues associated model inadequacies in dealing with aerosol - cloud processes and solar indirect effects.)

re # 3, without accurate forcing data, it is difficult to rule out other modes of external forcing and also natural internal modes of variability.

«The evidence presented here suggests that most of that warming might well have been caused by cloud changes associated with a natural mode of climate variability: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.»

They do a poor job at simulating the observed modes of natural internal climate variability (e.g. the multidecadal ocean oscillations).

Moreover, 370 years of tropical cyclone data from the Lesser Antilles (the eastern Caribbean island chain that bisects the main development region for landfalling U.S. hurricanes) show no long - term trend in either power or frequency but a 50 - to 70 - year wave pattern associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, a mode of natural climate variability.

Removing the influence of two major modes of natural internal variability (the Arctic Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation) from observations further improves attribution results, reducing the model - observation discrepancy in cold extremes.

Again I want to emphasize that my use of the temperature change rate, rather than temperature, as the predicted variable is based upon the expectation that these natural modes of climate variability represent forcing mechanisms — I believe through changes in cloud cover — which then cause a lagged temperature response.This is what Anthony and I are showing here:

We need to understand the decadal to centennial modes of natural climate variability.

Gradual anthropogenic forcing is expected, on theoretical grounds, to interact with natural modes of climate variability by altering the relative amount of time that the climate system spends in different states (52).

Although the PNA pattern is a natural internal mode of climate variability, it is also strongly influenced by the El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.

Judith writes: «Comparing the model temperature anomalies with observed temperature anomalies, particularly over relatively short periods, is complicated by the acknowledgement that climate models do not simulate the timing of ENSO and other modes of natural internal variability...»

If you remove anthropogenic forcing of the past century (i.e. hold CO2 at the preindustrial level of 280 ppm) and do test runs, including all known natural modes of internal variability that actually occurred over the past century, including solar, ENSO, PDO, AMO, and volcanic forcing, no model run even comes close to simulating the climate after about 1960, with huge divergence occurring in about 1980.

The argument is for a better understanding of natural modes of climate variability.

Comparing the model temperature anomalies with observed temperature anomalies, particularly over relatively short periods, is complicated by the acknowledgement that climate models do not simulate the timing of ENSO and other modes of natural internal variability; further the underlying trends might be different.

Modes or patterns of climate variability - Natural variability of the climate system, in particular on seasonal and longer time scales, predominantly occurs with preferred spatial patterns and time scales, through the dynamical characteristics of the atmospheric circulation and through interactions with the land and ocean surfaces.

There are also other natural «modes of variability» which may be affected by a climate change, for instance if the heat transport in the oceans are to change (e.g. the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation AMOC).

The modes of natural internal variability of greatest relevance are the Atlantic modes (AMO, NAO) and the Pacific models (PDO, often referred to as IPO) of multidecadal climate variability, with nominal time scales of 60 - 70 + years.

Getting these multidecadal variations correct in the reconstructions would be very valuable in understanding the modes of natural internal climate variability, and to what extent such variations might explain 20th century climate variability.

For late - 20th century warming to be attributed to natural variability, you'd need (a) a previously unknown mode (b) that shared all or most of the observed structure of recent temperature changes (c) with perhaps observation error accounting for the rest of it.

That leaves the North Atlantic, but it has another mode of natural variability called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation...... which is why it doesn't cool between the strong El Niños.