Sentences with phrase «natural variability in the climate system»

«The probability of all those things happening out of a convergence of natural variability in the climate system — it strikes me as a lower probability than recognizing that we stacked the deck in favor of [these conditions.]»

They concluded that the heavy rains in Europe last year were likely due to natural variability in the climate system rather than climate change.

The only sense that can be made of Spencer's notion is that there is some natural variability in the climate system, which in turn causes a natural variability to some extent in the radiation budget of the planet, which in turn may modify the natural variability.

Let's assume these studies somehow greatly underestimated natural variability in the climate system, so that the «signal» of anthropogenic climate change has not yet emerged from the «noise» of natural variations (i.e., the above - cited «discernible human influence» had not been detected after all).

Having better constraints on the timing and magnitude of past climate changes should ultimately lead to better constraints on climate sensitivity and the role of natural variability in the climate system.

She said scientists should pay more attention to the role of natural variability in the climate system and the uncertainties in climate modeling.

I'd just like to make sure I understood your post correctly: the common answer to the «contrarian talking point» that much of the observed recent climate change could just be caused by natural variability in the climate system is that this would imply, broadly speaking, heat being moved from the oceans to the atmosphere — whereas we observe the opposite, oceans storing heat.

It strikes me as incomprehensively odd that clouds should be expected to remain constant with striking natural variability in the climate system.

When you look more closely at the annual temperature record, you can see how the long - term warming trend — for the most part caused by human activities — is manifesting itself along with shorter - term natural variability in the climate system.

Not exact matches

In September 2014, Koonin wrote an editorial where he acknowledged human - caused climate change was happening but wrote that the «impact today of human activity appears to be comparable to the intrinsic, natural variability of the climate system itself.»

«Although this widening is considered a «natural» mode of climate variability, implying tropical widening is primarily driven by internal dynamics of the climate system, we also show that anthropogenic pollutants have driven trends in the PDO,» Allen said.

These variations originate primarily from fluctuations in carbon uptake by land ecosystems driven by the natural variability of the climate system, rather than by oceans or from changes in the levels of human - made carbon emissions.

«We know there's a lot of natural variability in the (climate) system,» Tom Delworth, a climate modeler at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., said.

The continued swings in the Arctic Oscillation can make it difficult for climate scientists to determine how sea ice loss is altering winter weather, since there is so much natural variability in the system in the first place.

We show in this study that even short - periodic natural variations of climate forcing can lead to significant long - term variability in the climate system.

If you can't keep up with annual - decadal changes in the TOA radiative imbalance or ocean heat content (because of failure to correctly model changes in the atmosphere and ocean due to natural variability), then your climate model lacks fidelity to the real world system it is tasked to represent.

The strongest internal variability in the climate system on this time scale is the change from El Niño to La Niña — a natural, stochastic «seesaw» in the tropical Pacific called ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation).

The disagreement arises from different assessments of the value and importance of particular classes of evidence as well as disagreement about the appropriate logical framework for linking and assessing the evidence — my reasoning is weighted heavily in favor of observational evidence and understanding of natural internal variability of the climate system, whereas the IPCC's reasoning is weighted heavily in favor of climate model simulations and external forcing of climate change.

For instance, the warming that began in the early 20th century (1925 - 1944) is consistent with natural variability of the climate system (including a generalized lack of significant volcanic activity, which has a cooling effect), solar forcing, and initial forcing from greenhouse gases.

There is also a natural variability of the climate system (about a zero reference point) that produces El Nino and La Nina effects arising from changes in ocean circulation patterns that can make the global temperature increase or decrease, over and above the global warming due to CO2.

IN this case, Judith's explains her own «bias» (what could be fairer that that) thusly: «my reasoning is weighted heavily in favor of observational evidence and understanding of natural internal variability of the climate system, whereas the IPCC's reasoning is weighted heavily in favor of climate model simulations and external forcing of climate change.&raquIN this case, Judith's explains her own «bias» (what could be fairer that that) thusly: «my reasoning is weighted heavily in favor of observational evidence and understanding of natural internal variability of the climate system, whereas the IPCC's reasoning is weighted heavily in favor of climate model simulations and external forcing of climate change.&raquin favor of observational evidence and understanding of natural internal variability of the climate system, whereas the IPCC's reasoning is weighted heavily in favor of climate model simulations and external forcing of climate change.&raquin favor of climate model simulations and external forcing of climate change.»

The real drivers of the climate system that result in the natural variability patterns, have no funds in the grant pipeline, the null hypothesis has yet to be dis - proven.

They are used to investigate the processes responsible for maintaining the general circulation and its natural and forced variability (Chapter 8), to assess the role of various forcing factors in observed climate change (Chapter 9) and to provide projections of the response of the system to scenarios of future external forcing (Chapter 10).

In my earlier posting, I tried to make the distinction that global climate change (all that is changing in the climate system) can be separated into: (1) the global warming component that is driven primarily by the increase in greenhouse gases, and (2) the natural (externally unforced) variability of the climate system consisting of temperature fluctuations about an equilibrium reference point, which therefore do not contribute to the long - term trenIn my earlier posting, I tried to make the distinction that global climate change (all that is changing in the climate system) can be separated into: (1) the global warming component that is driven primarily by the increase in greenhouse gases, and (2) the natural (externally unforced) variability of the climate system consisting of temperature fluctuations about an equilibrium reference point, which therefore do not contribute to the long - term trenin the climate system) can be separated into: (1) the global warming component that is driven primarily by the increase in greenhouse gases, and (2) the natural (externally unforced) variability of the climate system consisting of temperature fluctuations about an equilibrium reference point, which therefore do not contribute to the long - term trenin greenhouse gases, and (2) the natural (externally unforced) variability of the climate system consisting of temperature fluctuations about an equilibrium reference point, which therefore do not contribute to the long - term trend.

First, Happer mentions statistical significance, but global surface temperature trends are rarely if ever statistically significant (at a 95 % confidence level) over periods as short as a decade, even in the presence of an underlying long - term warming trend, because of the natural variability and noise in the climate system.

The overarching goal of this WCRP research effort, led by WCRP's Core Project «Climate and Ocean Variability, Predictability and Change» (CLIVAR) as a Research Focus, is to establish a quantitative understanding of the natural and anthropogenic mechanisms of regional to local sea level variability; to promote advances in observing systems required for an integrated sea level monitoring; and to foster the development of sea level predictions and projections that are of increasing benefit for coastal zone Variability, Predictability and Change» (CLIVAR) as a Research Focus, is to establish a quantitative understanding of the natural and anthropogenic mechanisms of regional to local sea level variability; to promote advances in observing systems required for an integrated sea level monitoring; and to foster the development of sea level predictions and projections that are of increasing benefit for coastal zone variability; to promote advances in observing systems required for an integrated sea level monitoring; and to foster the development of sea level predictions and projections that are of increasing benefit for coastal zone management.

Natural variability might modulate the flow of energy between parts of the system, such as from ocean to atmosphere, but the «pace of climate warming», as in the general gain in energy (or loss of energy) of the entire climate system, can only be dictated by some external forcing, such as somthing that changes the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface, volcanoes, or changes in GH gas concentrations.

The IPCC has a confidence level > 90 % that less than 50 % of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is the result of non-anthropogenic external forcings and internal natural variability within the climate system.

That data reflects fully the natural year - to - year up - and - down readings caused partly by natural «short - term variability» that «always has and always will be present in the climate system.»

Natural variability is indeed an important part of the climate system, but most prominent in its effects over short periods of a decade or two.

Even assuming the models are a perfect characterisation of the forced response and natural variability of the climate system (in statistical terms), his calculation will (with high probability) find that the obs are not consistent with the mean.

-LSB-...] my reasoning is weighted heavily in favor of observational evidence and understanding of natural internal variability of the climate system, whereas the IPCC's reasoning is weighted heavily in favor of climate model simulations and external forcing of climate change.

Firstly, even with man - made global warming taken into account, because of the short - term noise due to the internal variability in the climate system, climate models predict that there will be decades where natural cycles dampen the man - made warming trend.

The feedbacks in the climate system are negative and, therefore, any effect of increased CO2 will be probably too small to discern because natural climate variability is much, much larger.

The advantage of recognising a reversed sign for the solar effect high up in the atmosphere is that it enables a scenario whereby the bottom up effects of ocean cycles and the top down effects of solar variability can be seen to be engaged in a complex ever changing dance with the primary climate response being changes in the tropospheric air circulation systems to give us the observed natural climate variability via cyclical latitudinal shifts in all the air circulation systems and notably the jet streams.

At the moment, the uncertainties in modeling and complexities of the ocean system even prevent any quantification of how much of the present changes in the oceans is being caused by anthropogenic climate change or natural climate variability, and how much by other human activities such as fishing, pollution, etc..

In summary, because of the effects of natural internal climate variability, we do not expect each year to be inexorably warmer than the preceding year, or each decade to be warmer than the last decade, even in the presence of strong anthropogenic forcing of the climate systeIn summary, because of the effects of natural internal climate variability, we do not expect each year to be inexorably warmer than the preceding year, or each decade to be warmer than the last decade, even in the presence of strong anthropogenic forcing of the climate systein the presence of strong anthropogenic forcing of the climate system.

The Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program is a competitive grants program in the NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research Climate Program Office with the mission to enhance the United States» capability to understand and predict natural variability and changes in Earth's climate Climate Program Office with the mission to enhance the United States» capability to understand and predict natural variability and changes in Earth's climate climate system.

While there may indeed be additional energy in the system as a result of greenhouse gases — it is set against a background of large natural variability driven by internal climate processes.

The strategic plan will advance the state of knowledge of climate variability, the potential response of the climate system (and related human and environmental systems) to human - induced changes in the atmosphere and land surface, and the implications of these potential changes and management options for natural environments.

If you know what the forcings are and their magnitude, you can predict whether the climate will warm or cool in the future and by how much, excepting the effect of natural variability (ie the internal variability of the climate system).

The natural internal variability of the climate system arises from factors such as El Niño, fluctuations in the thermohaline circulation, and changes in ocean heat content.

Identifying the causes of observed changes in our climate requires an understanding of the natural variability of the climate system and of the response of the climate to external influences.

Gradual anthropogenic forcing is expected, on theoretical grounds, to interact with natural modes of climate variability by altering the relative amount of time that the climate system spends in different states (52).

To the extent that the «Little Ice Age» and «Medieval Warm Period» can be meaningfully defined, there has been much work showing that the main variations can be explained in terms of the response of the climate system to natural variability in solar and volcanic events that would have influenced surface temperature.

If one says any length of time that rules out the prospect of seeing the change in our lifetimes then that person is saying that Natural Variability [otherwise known as our current state of knowledge of the climate system] is a lot stronger [more unknown] than any of the known and supposed forcings and feedbacks currently postulated.

What is does mean is that our observing system is not adequate to fully track the energy in ways that allow us to understand and make best statements about the effects of natural climate variability: the La Niña of 2007 - 2008, and the current El Niño, for instance.

Perhaps it's due to the natural internal variability (short - term noise) in the climate system, with more heat being shifted to the deeper oceans as a result of more recent La Niña events.

Joint attribution - Involves both attribution of observed changes to regional climate change and attribution of a measurable portion of either regional climate change or the associated observed changes in the system to human causes, beyond natural variability.

Modes or patterns of climate variability - Natural variability of the climate system, in particular on seasonal and longer time scales, predominantly occurs with preferred spatial patterns and time scales, through the dynamical characteristics of the atmospheric circulation and through interactions with the land and ocean surfaces.