In fact, it is possible that even the extra warmth around
the natural warm peaks will be entirely beneficial.
Not exact matches
The push to
peak global emissions and keep
warming below 2 degrees Celsius has opened rifts over whether the world should embrace stepping stones like nuclear and
natural gas power or go full tilt toward a 100 percent zero - carbon renewable energy economy.
The following UAH chart shows lower tropospheric temperatures (1500) continuing their decline after the
warm peak caused by the
natural El Niño phenomenon:
Worldwide there was a significant
natural warming trend in the 1980's and 1990's as a Solar cycle
peaked with lots of sunspots and solar flares.
Peaking oil and
natural gas extraction is going to accelerate global
warming when many desperate people use wood and coal for heating and cooking.
And what percentage of the
peak warmth monthly anomaly is anthropogenic since you agree that the bulk of the
warming is
natural?
So the bulk of the
warming is
natural, but that 0.1 C extra
warming monthly anomaly (yes, we're talking a matter of weeks) relative to 1998's
peak is... anthropogenic?
From the Vostok Ice Core, it is clear that the Earth is subjected to many levels of
NATURAL «
warmings»: JUST one «category «10»
warming of 9 + with an ~ 12000y duration every 120,000 y; several category «6»
warmings of 5 - 6C
peaking ~ every 7500y after each category «10» event; many category «3»
warmings of 2 - 3C
peaking ~ every 5000y; and a multitude of category «2»
warmings of 1 - 2C
peaking on decade and century scales.
The temperature rose, of entirely
natural causes, by around 1 degree C to a first
warm peak in the late 1930s.
For pathways that give a most likely
warming up to about 4 °C, cumulative emissions from pre-industrial times to year 2200 correlate strongly with most likely resultant
peak warming regardless of the shape of emissions floors used, providing a more
natural long - term policy horizon than 2050 or 2100.
Their «
natural models» grossly underestimated the 40s
peak warming by ~ 0.8 ° C (blue line) and when CO2 and sulfates were added the
warming event was cooled further (red line).
History tells us that once the current
natural cycles revert, surface
warming will jump upward, as it did at the
peak of the solar cycle and El Niño in 1998.
The
peak of the late century
natural warming event was 1998 and the global climate shift was 1998/2001.
If all that CO2 does is to marginally raise global temperature over the period of a
natural solar driven
warming and cooling cycle then there is nothing to fear because the mitigating effect in cool periods will outweigh any discomfort from the aggravating effect at and around the
peak of the
warm periods.
However, as shown in Fig. 4.5 of the above referenced report, if continued
natural warming from the 1000 year cycle is still occurring and would be expected to
peak about 2100, then most of the
warming since 1950 would have to be attributed to
natural occurrences and the IPCC AR5 claim would be FALSE.
It also links the cycles to a
natural 50 percent increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide during the 10,000 year period leading up to the
peak of all recurring 116,000 year mega global
warming cycles.
Superimposed on the secular trend is a
natural multidecadal oscillation of an average period of 70 y with significant amplitude of 0.3 — 0.4 °C
peak to
peak, which can explain many historical episodes of
warming and cooling and accounts for 40 % of the observed
warming since the mid-20th century and for 50 % of the previously attributed anthropogenic
warming trend (55).
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