The prior question is do
we need negative emissions, and if so, why?
The CCC has previously said the UK would
need negative emissions to reach net - zero overall.
Neglecting CDR in this fashion would be fine if we didn't
need negative emissions as a society.
Scientists increasingly agree that the world may
need negative emissions to prevent catastrophic warming
Not exact matches
«The paper emphasizes that we
need to move to net - zero or net -
negative carbon
emissions and have only a few more decades to do so,» says Williams.
«We probably
need aggressive and immediate mitigation, plus some
negative emissions,» says Pete Smith, a soil scientist and bioenergy expert at the University of Aberdeen in the United Kingdom.
«The overall significance is that although we already know that reducing methane
emissions can bring great societal benefits via decreased near - term warming and improved air quality, and that many of the sources can be controlled at low or even
negative cost, we still
need better data on
emissions from particular sources,» Duke University climate sciences professor Drew Shindell said.
Van Vuuren, D. et al. (2018) Alternative pathways to the 1.5 C target reduce the
need for
negative emission technologies, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0119-8
We will not get to
negative emissions without regenerative agriculture because we
need the gt's it first make unnecesary, then the ones the ggt's they sequester.
If we have become serious enough about climate and resources to be moving significantly toward
negative emissions then the glibal world view will have
needed to have already shifted.
The following study shows that more sustainable lifestyles helps avoid the
need for huge
negative emissions projects like BECCS.
There are enormous assumptions in most calculations, including the assumption that «carbon
negative» technologies, like capturing CO2 from power plants burning biomass, can be done at a scale remotely relevant to the climate problem (to be relevant one
needs to be talking in gigatons of avoided CO2
emissions per year — each a billion tons).
As I set out in UVJan18 @ 4, and you also @ 7, the
need for
emissions - cuts and for
negative -
emissions are inexorably mixed.
«although scenarios routinely assume a substantial amount of global
negative emissions, the feasibility of these assumptions still
needs to be explored.»
The latest IPCC report on climate change notes that our society will likely
need net
negative emissions by the end of the century to avoid a 2 degree C warming.
First, it assumes no leakage from potential storage reservoirs, which, if it occurred, would increase the amount of
negative emissions needed to stay within budget for 2C.
To prevent the worst impacts of climate change, the world will
need to reach net -
negative emissions, a point at which we're actually removing more carbon from the air than we're putting in.
Gasser et al., (2015)
Negative emissions physically
needed to keep global warming below 2Â °C.
For a 1.5 - degree goal, large - scale
negative emissions activity would
need to begin soon, before 2030, and expand rapidly, so that by 2050 or sooner the amount of carbon sucked out of the atmosphere would have to exceed the amount emitted into it from fossil fuel burning.
Who will deliver the
negative emissions needed to avoid 2C warming?
Although warming of only 1.5 degrees would result in much less harm to the climate than 2 degrees, it's possible that the ecological damage caused by the
negative emissions projects
needed to get there may exceed the benefits, at least for some.
Emissions would
need to decline dramatically (and then go
negative) for a good shot at staying below 2 °C.
Nevertheless, a likely (66 %) chance of meeting the 1.5 C target means global CO2
emissions will
need to fall to zero some time between 2040 and 2060, before turning net -
negative as CO2 is drawn from the atmosphere.
Referring to recent environmental reports, Lackner emphasized the
need for prolonged periods of carbon capture and storage — also known as «
negative carbon
emission».
To hold the temperature increase to about 1.5 degrees, the globe would
need to cut its greenhouse gas
emissions to zero by 2050, and then have
negative emissions, meaning «the sum of all human activities is a net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere,» the study says.
«There is no practical solution that doesn't include large periods of
negative emission,» says Lackner, adding that «we
need means that are faster than just growing a tree.»
If you are silly enough to contemplate a 2 ˚C rise, then just to have a 66 per cent chance of limiting warming at that point, atmospheric carbon
needs to be held to 400ppm CO2e and that requires a global reduction in
emissions of 80 per cent by 2050 (on 1990 levels) and
negative emissions after 2070.
Importantly CO2 removal is not only
needed to enable
negative emissions but also to achieve zero CO2
emissions globally.
In recent years, a number of climate change commentators, non-governmental organizations, and intergovernmental organizations have discussed the potential
need for so - called «
negative greenhouse gas
emissions» strategies.
Direct air capture is another way to get to
negative emissions, something many climate models show we'll
need to keep global warming below 2 °C.
If action is delayed, total investment costs will rise, the chances of stranded assets will increase and costly
negative emission technologies will be
needed to limit planetary warming.»
That is what is
needed to get an acceptable estimate of the true economic impact of GHG
emissions (positive or
negative).
CO2 mitigation shouldn't even be on the list of things that
need to be done until it can be demonstrated that the known benefits of higher atmospheric CO2, as well as the lower cost of energy production when CO2
emission is not subject to constraint, are outweighed by the imagined
negatives.
For example, theory and bottom up modelling suggest that some energy efficiency policies can deliver CO2
emission reductions at
negative cost, but we
need ex ‐ post policy evaluation to establish whether they really do and whether the measures are as effective as predicted by ex ‐ ante assessments.
Even though the intentions, of the Ecofys and Nature researchers particularly, was to minimize the
need for
negative emissions, neither was able to completely eliminate it.
Most scientific estimates show that to keep those goals within reach, the global
emissions trajectory
needs to not only reach net - zero by the second half of this century, but continue downward into net -
negative emissions.
To prevent the worst impacts of climate change, the world will
need to reach net -
negative emissions, a point at which we're actually removing and storing more carbon from the air than we're putting into the atmosphere.
To radically decarbonize with minimal
negative emissions, efficiency will
need to outrun growth.
These models systematically overestimate the
negative effects on growth by making a series of assumptions that constrain how businesses can respond to the
need to cut
emissions.
This
need may be even more urgent following the signing of the new Paris Agreement, with its implied commitment to substantial
negative emissions.
Nations may
need to physically remove carbon from the atmosphere, and they may have to deploy «
negative emissions technology» - techniques that scrub CO2 out of the air.
If
negative emissions are too difficult to do, then we
need to drop to zero much sooner.»
This piece, published in Nature Climate Change, explores the
need for BECCS technology in accordance with IPCC projections and assesses the challenges that accompany large scale
negative emissions technology deployment.
Alternative pathways of early deployment of
negative emission technologies
need to be considered to ensure that climate targets are reached safely and sustainably.
The implication: in addition to rapid reductions in CO2
emissions from fossil fuel use, we'll likely
need big industrial CCS processes to generate
negative emissions via approaches like sustainable bioenergy coupled with CCS and / or direct air capture (DAC) + sequestration to make our climate goals a reality.
If we want a more gradual transition, we
need to start thinking about a warmer world than +2 C or think seriously about
negative emissions.
Reforestation is the least controversial
negative emissions technology - but a substantial amount of good quality land is
needed.
«We
need to start thinking about how to implement a
negative -
emissions energy strategy on a global scale.
SELF - CARBURETED EMBODIMENTS are truly stand - alone: they burn fuel in GT's own gas turbines, generating the heat and electricity
needed to capture their own
emissions while also capturing CO2 from the atmosphere, remaining carbon
negative.
Meanwhile, the avantgarde in
emissions targets consists of CO2 levels lower than those presently existing, i.e. we're already in overshoot and
need to achieve zero
emissions and then a carbon -
negative period of CO2 drawdown.