This demands a fairly stiff
negative debt adjustment to reflect a more sustainable level of debt (based on current operating profit)-- I'd estimate just over EUR 2 billion is appropriate.
Now, this means underlying interest coverage isn't great either — I should probably haircut my P / S valuation accordingly, with
a negative debt adjustment.
With net finance cost (inc. hybrid coupons) of $ 130 million amounting to 31 % of our average margin, debt would need to be halved to hit a more manageable 15 % — though bearing in mind some of that debt's subordinated, plus cash on hand, let's back out 50 % of the hybrid debt — net - net this implies a $ 1.2 billion
negative debt adjustment.
To bring this back to my usual 15 % limit, we'd need to see a debt haircut of about 75 M — we'll add this as
a negative debt adjustment to my P / S multiple, so my fair value's now:
Total net proceeds from the spin - out will go towards reducing debt, but a further
negative debt adjustment is clearly required.
Let's be disciplined though, and haircut our debt again to bring this ratio back down to my usual 15 % limit — this now equates to a 42 M
negative debt adjustment to my P / S multiple:
Not exact matches
I calculate total
debt (of 5.5 B) would need to be reduced by about 39 %, to limit net interest to 15 % of Op FCF — therefore, we'll include a 2.1 B (
negative)
debt adjustment in our valuation, plus a 336 M
adjustment for the net pension deficit.
With net interest expense now standing at about 15 % of operating profit, there's no need for any
debt adjustment to my valuation, positive or
negative.
However, Tullow's generating 2.0 B of cash from operations, so it has ample flexibility to deal with its
debt /
debt servicing — no (
negative)
debt adjustment's required here.
To this (
negative)
debt adjustment we should also add the remaining net pension deficit of 61 M. However, we do have an offset — INM's 18.6 % stake in APN News & Media (APN: AU)-- a ridiculous trophy asset that should have been sold years ago, but at least its value has recovered somewhat in the past year (to AUD 128 M).
But Aryzta's way over-leveraged now, we need to apply an appropriate (
negative)
debt adjustment.