Is the 1.5 C goal feasible, given the amount of
negative emissions required?
The gap between each coloured line and the black line effectively represents the amount of
negative emissions required to balance the budget in each case.
Not exact matches
The report found that the tighter goal would
require cities to zero out their
emissions on a net basis by midcentury and make them
negative in the second half of the century.
To become CO2 -
negative requires replanting copses of multiple additional trees to account for the
emissions from that one tree cut down, a process that can take several years or more to achieve any CO2 drawdown.
But a 25 % reduction wont fix the climate issue, so we will
require renewable energy and some form of
negative emissions with either technology or natural sinks, preferably the later.
As you point out, Δ300ppm would
require considerable
negative -
emissions: 300 x 2.13 Gt (C) / Af = 1,420 Gt (C).
Yet, these large values for
required negative -
emissions are not set out in Anderson & Peters (2016) which only show a projected total of roughly 145Gt (C) by 2100, reaching 4Gt (C) annually.
They add: «Direct air capture could become a major industry if the technology matures and prices drop dramatically... Direct air capture might
require much less land [than other
negative emissions techniques], but entail much higher costs and consumption of a large fraction of global energy production.
If you are silly enough to contemplate a 2 ˚C rise, then just to have a 66 per cent chance of limiting warming at that point, atmospheric carbon needs to be held to 400ppm CO2e and that
requires a global reduction in
emissions of 80 per cent by 2050 (on 1990 levels) and
negative emissions after 2070.
Similarly, because nearly any plausible scenario would
require a large amount of
negative emissions later in the century, the carbon budget itself is not a hard cap on
emissions.
Consequently, most of the IPCC
emission scenarios able to meet the global two - degree target
require overshooting the carbon budget at first and then remove the excess carbon with large
negative emissions, typically on the order of 400 ‑ 800 Gt CO2 up to 2100.
Wehner and his co-authors of Chapter 2 of the NCA, which looked at the physical basis for our understanding of climate change, considered seven different future scenarios (including four new ones), ranging from the «do nothing» option to a geoengineering option, which would
require an as - yet uninvented technology to take CO2 out of the atmosphere on a global scale, to achieve net
negative emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050.
And then, after 2050, they
require «
negative emissions.»
For example, one of the scenarios included in the IPCC's latest assessment assumes aggressive
emissions reductions designed to limit the global temperature increase to 3.6 °F (2 °C) above pre-industrial levels.3 This path would
require rapid
emissions reductions (more than 70 % reduction in human - related
emissions by 2050, and net
negative emissions by 2100 — see the Appendix 3: Climate Science, Supplemental Message 5) sufficient to achieve heat - trapping gas concentrations well below those of any of the scenarios considered by the IPCC in its 2007 assessment.
The most likely method of achieving
negative emissions, biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), is controversial because it might
require very large areas of land to be set aside for fast - growing trees or other biomass crops.
«It will
require exploring possibilities for realising «
negative»
emissions as well as profound lifestyle changes of current generations.»
HL: The IPCC report indicated that
negative emissions are
required to achieve a 2C goal and the technology to achieve that goal is not yet available.
On the feasibility of 2C: «The IPCC report indicated that
negative emissions are
required to achieve a 2C goal and the technology to achieve that goal is not yet available.»
One of the new reports found that such an ambitious warming goal would
require a global energy transition with such speed and scale as has never before been achieved, as well as an emphasis on «
negative emissions» that have not been tested at the necessary magnitude that would be
required.
You can tell because 350 pathways
require that global
emissions go
negative (think large - scale biological sequestration) in about 50 years.
It is becoming increasingly clear that such a transition will almost certainly
require substantial deployment of
negative emissions technologies (NETs) during the course of the 21st century.
While renewable energy provides obvious environmental benefits by reducing greenhouse gas
emissions and criteria pollutants associated with electricity generation, the infrastructure
required to add large amounts of renewable resources can have
negative environmental effects.
Success would
require increased support from developed countries to developing countries, but do not
require negative emissions late in the century.
For example, Adequacy and feasibility of the 1.5 C long - term global limit (Schaeffer et al. 2013) notes: «Constrained by real
emissions until 2010 and energy - economic reduction potential until the 2020s, the 1.5 °C scenarios necessarily
require net -
negative CO2
emissions in the second half of the 21st Century.
Achieving 1.5 C may, therefore,
require substantial deployment of
negative emissions technologies, which at the moment remain untested at large scales.
[147] The IPCC has pointed out that many long - term climate scenario models
require large - scale manmade
negative emissions to avoid serious climate change.
While less meat gets wasted than does fruit and vegetables, the amount of energy
required to produce meat is «significantly» more than that for plant - based food production, which means that the associated greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions from meat production is also much higher, leading researchers to indicate that meat waste has a «greater
negative environmental impact.»
Is the amount of «
negative emissions»
required for either limit feasible?
Climate expert Kevin Anderson of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of Manchester recently reported in Nature Geoscience that, of the 400 IPCC
emissions scenarios used in the 2014 Working Group report to keep warming below two degrees, some 344
require the deployment of
negative emissions technologies after 2050.
In other words,
negative emissions are
required in all of the IPCC scenarios that are still current.