Sentences with phrase «negative nominal total returns»
Based on the valuation measures most strongly correlated with actual subsequent total returns (and those correlations are near or above 90 %), we continue to estimate that the S&P 500 will achieve zero or negative nominal total returns over horizons of 8 years or less, and only about 2 % annually over the coming decade.
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They also warn that because of extended zero - interest policy by the Fed, security valuations have advanced to the point where prospective nominal total returns on a conventional portfolio mix are likely to average well below 2 % annually, with negative real returns, over the coming 12 - year period.
On the basis of nominal total returns (including dividends), we estimate zero or negative returns for the S&P 500 on every horizon shorter than about 8 years.
On valuation measures most strongly correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 nominal total returns, we presently expect negative total returns for the S&P 500 on a 10 - year horizon, and total returns averaging only about 1 % annually over the coming 12 - year period (chart).