The problem for that idea is that even if it is possible the reduced energy flow from ocean to air merely mimics on a miniscule scale what happens naturally when
a negative ocean cycle reduces the flow of energy from ocean to air.
A self stabilising system which is as well capable of neutralising any ocean skin effect as it is capable of neutralising
negative ocean cycles, positive ocean cycles and any warming of the air by any increase in greenhouse gases.
Not exact matches
When we say «positive» and «
negative» feedbacks in the sense of radiation (so I'm not talking about carbon -
cycle responses such as methane release from the
oceans or such) we're referring to temperature - sensitive variables which themselves affect the radiation budget of the planet.
There are two main explanations for the 1940s to 1970s global temperature stagnation (or slight cooling): aerosol forcing and the
negative phase of an
ocean cycle known as the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), with the former contributing more than the latter.
1 Positive 1.1 Carbon
cycle feedbacks 1.1.1 Arctic methane release 1.1.1.1 Methane release from melting permafrost peat bogs 1.1.1.2 Methane release from hydrates 1.1.2 Abrupt increases in atmospheric methane 1.1.3 Decomposition 1.1.4 Peat decomposition 1.1.5 Rainforest drying 1.1.6 Forest fires 1.1.7 Desertification 1.1.8 CO2 in the
oceans 1.1.9 Modelling results 1.1.9.1 Implications for climate policy 1.2 Cloud feedback 1.3 Gas release 1.4 Ice - albedo feedback 1.5 Water vapor feedback 2
Negative 2.1 Carbon
cycle 2.1.1 Le Chatelier's principle 2.1.2 Chemical weathering 2.1.3 Net Primary Productivity 2.2 Lapse rate 2.3 Blackbody radiation
We could get rid of the
negative forcings by subtracting the impacts of
ocean cycles etc. from the temperature record, leaving only the anthropogenic component.
None of the Annan / Hargreaves priors go below zero, and while this may be physically realistic it does not allow for the fact that the observational data generate
negative sensitivities, mostly because of
ocean cycle warming and cooling effects that the radiative forcing estimates do not take into account.
It was mostly if not entirely a result of a change from a warm to a cold PDO
cycle in 1939 (with a later assist from the AMO), and I get my
negative sensitivities because the forcing estimates don't allow for the heating and cooling impacts of
ocean cycles.
The problem with that argument is that over long periods of time (like the six decades since 1950), positive and
negative phases of
ocean cycles tend to cancel each other out, and thus internal variability doesn't have a large influence on long - term temperatures.
I would say that that was because
cycle 19 was preceded and followed by weaker
cycles and accompanied by a
negative ocean phase.