With RPI inflation at 5.5 % - the figure was published yesterday - and our gilt rate at 2.37 %, the real rate of return is
negative on our bond markets and that is a very fragile situation for the markets.
Not exact matches
We all know that the massive reduction in dealer inventories and the cost of capital has had a huge
negative impact
on liquidity in the corporate
bond market.
Think about it: how much will a
bond with a
NEGATIVE yield be worth
on the day that investors lose confidence in their central bankers» abilities to control the weather financial
markets?
So far, the municipal
bond market has seen only a modest reaction to the recent
negative credit watch being placed
on the ratings of several
bond insurers.
A few more months like that in the
bond market and we will start hearing more talk about
negative yields
on U.S.
bonds.
Companies are loath to cut dividends, given the
negative signal that it sends to the
market, while coupons
on bonds are one of the first claims
on a company's income, ranking above other demands.
More
on MoneyWatch: Active
Bond Managers Fare No Better The Economy Isn't the Same as the
Market Why the Concern over
Negative TIPS Yields Is Overblown When Dollar - Cost Averaging Makes Sense When Dollar - Cost Averaging Doesn't Make Sense Hear Larry Swedroe discuss current investment trends and topics every Sunday at noon
on 550 AM KTRS in St. Louis or streaming via the KTRS Web site.
The present environment is characterized by unusually overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions, with rising 10 - year Treasury
bond yields, heavy insider selling, valuations
on «forward earnings» appearing reasonable only because profit margins are more than 70 % above historical norms (fully explained by the
negative sum of government and personal savings as a share of GDP), with the S&P 500 at a 4 - year
market high, in a mature
market advance, with lagging employment indicators still positive but more than half of all OECD countries already in GDP contraction, Europe in recession, Britain
on the cusp, and the EU imposing massive losses
on depositors in order to protect lenders in an unstable banking system where Cyprus is the iceberg's tip.
The majority of global equity
markets have posted
negative returns,
bond yields are near record lows, the loonie has fallen to levels not seen in over 11 years, and, to top it all off, there are some steep tax hikes
on the immediate horizon.
As we noted last night, BlackRock is bullish
on hard currency EM
bonds and generally bullish
on emerging
market debt in light of low - to -
negative interest rates in developed
markets.
See our posts Fitch
On Turkey: Debt Rating Safe, Outlook
Negative, After $ 25B In Emerging
Market Bond Flows, Is Argentina A Safe Bet?
The
negative influences of war and terrorism remain: upward pressure
on oil prices, declining affordability of terrorism insurance, and a wobbly equity and
bond market.