I could well be wrong (my view may be too optimistic), but I think the US is in for a year or two of sluggish but not necessarily
negative real economic growth.
Not exact matches
If the deficit is due to an
economic recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of
negative growth in
real gross domestic product, or to «extraordinary events», such as a natural disaster or war, that results in an «cost» of more than $ 3 billion, then the operating budgets of departments and agencies would be automatically frozen to pay for any wage increases.
Both valuations and consumer sentiment may be at high levels, but with stable
real yields, rising productivity and «normalised» valuations, the equity outlook is not necessarily
negative — as long as
economic growth continues.
After the first quarter's
negative economic growth, the increase in employment has fed through into some spending indicators and to a
real estate recovery, with the S&P / Case - Shiller index of home values in 20 cities rising 4.9 % from a year earlier in April.
Unfortunately, in the case of the addiction to
economic growth, even when it has become obviously
negative in its effects on
real people, there is no wider society of those not addicted to bring pressure on the addicts.
The «
real fun» is watching FOMC policymakers squirm as they balance off costs of inflation and
economic growth on the
negative side, as it was in the late 70s and early 80s.
Against the background of
negative real returns of U.S. longer - dated bonds any sustainable acceleration in
economic growth is likely to switch away from bonds.
Deflation is generally considered to be an environment of slow
economic growth and where there is actually a
negative inflation rate, with the end result being an actual increase in the
real value of money.
The exception for interest allocable to a
real property trade or business reflects policymakers» understanding that limits on the deduction for interest expense could have enormous
negative consequences for property values,
real estate markets, and
economic growth.