If the temperature below is warmer than the local temperature, IR radiation that is re-radiated is less than is absorbed,
the net effect of the greenhouse gases is to warm that layer.
«
the net effect of greenhouse gases is to cool the upper atmosphere, and warm the lower atmosphere»
Not exact matches
Now if this was the 1980s they might have had a point, but the fact that aerosols are an important climate forcing, have a
net cooling
effect on climate and, in part, arise from the same industrial activities that produce
greenhouse gases, has been part
of mainstream science for 30 years.
However, the
net effect in terms
of forcing is only about 0.27 W / m ^ 2 — much less than
greenhouse gas forcing.
Algae absorb the main
greenhouse gas carbon dioxide as they grow, so the
net effect on global warming
of the fuel is considered to be neutral.
You created the requirement
of a
net transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean, whereas I explained with two examples that the
greenhouse effect can put heat in the oceans due to a change in
greenhouse gases despite a flatlining in surface temperatures
of both ocean and air AND an uninterrupted
net transfer from ocean to air.
He points out that building new eco-cities does not result in a
net fall in
greenhouse gas emissions — it is at best neutral, though more likely to result in a rise in emissions because
of the
effects of making the building materials used in the construction.
And what exactly would be changed, if the public were educated about aerosols and
greenhouse gases and temperature histories and the fact that at least 50 %
of the 0.5 - 0.9 C change compared to 200 years ago is with 90 to 99 % likelihood due to the
net effect of anthropogenic factors?
Well it's even more complex than that because the
net warming from humans doesn't just involve CO2, but other
greenhouse gases and it factors in the cooling
effect of aerosols being dwarfed by the CO2 forcing.
Schematic diagram
of human - made climate forcings by
greenhouse gases, aerosols, and their
net effect.
[note] In this context it intrigues me that those who advocate for stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) tend to ignore the possibility that the possible termination
effect would increase
net risk from
greenhouse gas emissions, and the deployment
of SAI should therefore (in risk adjustment terms) justify accelerated mitigation rather than reduced mitigation.
On the vital question
of how to approach climate change, the most influential economist is William Nordhaus whose explicit position is that we should decide to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions only if cost - benefit analysis or an optimisation model concludes that the
net benefits to humans are positive, where the relevant
effects are essentially impacts on economic output (Nordhaus and Yang, 1996).
When you compare this with the actual surface temperature
of ~ 288 K and the temperature in absence
of the
greenhouse effect but no change in albedo
of ~ 255 K, what we can say is the follows: The
greenhouse effect due to all the
greenhouse gases (water vapor, clouds, and the long - lived GHGs like CO2 and CH4) raises the temperature
of the Earth by an amount
of ~ 33 K (which is 288K — 255K); the albedo due to cloud reduces the temperature by ~ 17 K (which is 272 K — 255 K); the
net effect of both the GHGs and the cloud albedo is ~ 16 K (which is 288K — 272K).
Other characteristics
of the Earth will affect the
net position such as the distribution
of the land and sea surfaces but given the predominance
of ocean surfaces and the fact that most energy comes in at the equator which is mostly oceanic then it seems most likely that the
net global
effect of more
greenhouse gases is actually a miniscule cooling rather than a miniscule warming.
As noted earlier, the IPCC's latest report indicates that the current radiative forcing
of non-carbon dioxide
greenhouse gases and aerosols effectively cancel each other, so that the
net effect of all radiative forcing components is currently roughly equal to the
effect of carbon dioxide alone.
Most
of the warming in climate models is not from CO2 directly but from feedback
effects, and the evidence for strong positive climate feedback on temperature is very weak (to the point
of non-existence) as compared to the evidence
of greenhouse gas warming (yes, individual
effects like ice cover melting are undeniably positive feedback
effects, the question is as to the
net impact
of all such
effects).
This is because the
net warming it reports includes the cooling
effects of aerosols which partly masks the warming caused by
greenhouse gases.
The
net climate - forcing
effect of ABCs is much more poorly known than that
of long - lived trace
greenhouse gases, as explained here.
So these two articles are suggesting that a grand solar minimum could have a
net cooling
effect in the ballpark
of 1 to 6 °C, depending on how human
greenhouse gas emissions change over the next century.
Moreover, when you then convert the three
gases to a comparable unit based on their potential to warm the planet over a 100 - year time frame, the planet's biosphere works out to be a
net source
of greenhouse gases, causing a warming comparable to the
effect of between 3.8 and 5.4 billion tons
of carbon dioxide emissions per year.