As for the Keil & Trenberth cartoon, reproduced on p. 58 of Houghton's 1996 text, the sum of inputs into the atmosphere,
net of albedo and the 168 W / m ^ 2 of direct isnolation that you cite, is clearly 519.
Not exact matches
While the local, seasonal climate forcing by the Milankovitch cycles is large (
of the order 30 W / m2), the
net forcing provided by Milankovitch is close to zero in the global mean, requiring other radiative terms (like
albedo or greenhouse gas anomalies) to force global - mean temperature change.
Does more evaporation lead to more clouds and if so is the
net effect
of more clouds to increase
albedo or to further increase GHE?
It melts without having much cooling effect, and in short order there is
net warming because
of the reduced
albedo of wet snow vs. dry snow and bare rock vs. snow cover.
This is what I get out
of it: the Arctic - ice -
albedo situation is more complicated than earlier thought (due to clouds, sun - filled summers, dark winters, etc), but
NET EFFECT, the ice loss and all these other related factors (some negative feedbacks) act as a positive feedback and enhance global warming.
Our observational studies (Gray and Schwartz, 2010 and 2011)
of the variations
of outward radiation (IR +
albedo) energy flux to space (ISCCP data) vs. tropical and global precipitation increase (from NCEP reanalysis data) indicates that there is not a reduction of global net radiation (IR + Albedo) to space which is associated with increased global or tropical - regional rai
albedo) energy flux to space (ISCCP data) vs. tropical and global precipitation increase (from NCEP reanalysis data) indicates that there is not a reduction
of global
net radiation (IR +
Albedo) to space which is associated with increased global or tropical - regional rai
Albedo) to space which is associated with increased global or tropical - regional rainfall.
The
albedo enhancement over the cloud - rain areas tends to increase the
net (IR +
albedo) radiation energy to space more than the weak suppression
of (IR +
albedo) in the clear areas.
I believe we all agree that sea ice has an empirically observed higher
albedo than sea water, so that a significant
net melting
of sea ice should lower the average
albedo of Earth.
The
albedo change resulting from the snowline retreat on land is similarly large as the retreat
of sea ice, so the combined impact could be well over 2 W / sq m. To put this in context,
albedo changes in the Arctic alone could more than double the
net radiative forcing resulting from the emissions caused by all people
of the world, estimated by the IPCC to be 1.6 W / sq m in 2007 and 2.29 W / sq m in 2013.»
One
of the most puzzling things is that the heating between 1980 and 2000 seems to have been driven by a large increase in
net received shortwave radiation due to
albedo reduction, rather than by any observed reduction in outgoing longwave radiation.
Six Chinese scientists used remotely - sensed imaging data, including leaf area index (LAI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), an enhanced vegetation index (EVI), gross primary production (GPP) and
net primary production (NPP), coupled with other data (temperature, soil moisture, evapotranspiration,
albedo and wind) over the period 2003 to 2014 to analyze the effects
of a wind farm on summer vegetative growth in a region
of northern China.
You would do better to discuss why FG were not sure
of their result for various practical reasons, e.g. the
net radiative flux imbalance at the top
of the atmosphere has only been measured for a very short time, and their study doesn't include
albedo forcings from melting ice — if you're actually as interested in their results as you pretend to be.
The Milankovitch cycles are weak from the point
of view
of net solar forcing, but they affect the
albedo through systematic changes in northern ice cover during the months when there is more daylight.
If the
net result
of more open water was dominated by
albedo and positive then we would have seen a rapid acceleration after 2007 and more after 2012.
The 30 % is used on the left hand side
of this exceedingly simple equation to determine the
net radiations hitting the atmosphere and surface taking into account earth
albedo.
The jets achieve their effect by altering the flow
of energy through the troposphere but in doing so they alter
albedo so, depending on the overall
net situation, if another forcing increases or decreases
albedo then the jets may not have to shift so far or the jets may need to move a bit further depending on the
net balance at the time.
In the IPCC summary there's a figure indicating land use (
albedo) is responsible for a
net forcing
of -0.25 W / m2, with an uncertainty range
of 0 to -0.5 W / m2 (the figure also indicates that scientific understanding
of albedo is very low).
An aside: one
of the reasons that clouds modulate temperature so effectively is not just the
albedo increase which bounces downwelling short wave radiation back into space, but because they radiate IR back to the surface thus reducing the
net rate
of thermal radiative loss.»
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=83672 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/13/science/earth/collapse-
of-parts-
of-west-antarctica-ice-sheet-has-begun-scientists-say.html It will add about 10 feet according to an interview with one
of the scientists involved; but over a long time and fairly vague time frame, unless reinforcing processes (carbon release from melting permafrost, shallow ocean bottom warmingn in the form
of methane from clathrates), a major reduction in earth's
albedo from permafrost,
net ice sheet, and total sea ice, continue to increasingly accelerate the process.
An aside: one
of the reasons that clouds modulate temperature so effectively is not just the
albedo increase which bounces dowelling short wave radiation back into space, but because they radiate IR back to the surface thus reducing the
net rate
of thermal radiative loss.
When you compare this with the actual surface temperature
of ~ 288 K and the temperature in absence
of the greenhouse effect but no change in
albedo of ~ 255 K, what we can say is the follows: The greenhouse effect due to all the greenhouse gases (water vapor, clouds, and the long - lived GHGs like CO2 and CH4) raises the temperature
of the Earth by an amount
of ~ 33 K (which is 288K — 255K); the
albedo due to cloud reduces the temperature by ~ 17 K (which is 272 K — 255 K); the
net effect
of both the GHGs and the cloud
albedo is ~ 16 K (which is 288K — 272K).
Land cover changes, largely due to
net deforestation, have increased the surface
albedo giving an RF
of — 0.2 [± 0.2] W m — 2, with a medium - low level
of scientific understanding.
They found that changes in atmospheric ionization during the 11 - year solar cycle, and the resulting variations in aerosol formation, produced a globally asymmetric radiative forcing with a
net cloud
albedo effect
of − 0.05 W m − 2.
The fact
of the matter is that IPCC has relied in AR4 on models, which assume a strongly positive
net feedback from clouds, while subsequent physical observations show that the primary impact
of clouds with warming is increased
albedo and higher SW reflection resulting in an overall negative cloud feedback.
I have now realised that the global
albedo changes necessary and the changes in solar energy input to the oceans can be explained by the latitudinal shifts (beyond normal seasonal variation)
of all the air circulation systems and in particular the
net latitudinal positions
of the three main cloud bands namely the two generated by the mid latitude jet streams plus the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
A drying
of the atmosphere — that the researchers note — takes place in the subtropical subsidence zone (the 30 degrees latitude) but expands towards the 30 - 45 degrees latitude — Earth's Meditteranean climates, where their model suggests
net cloud cover would actually decrease most (see dotted line in first image in this article, at top)-- most notably around 500 hPa (roughly translating to a height
of around 5 kilometers
of altitude in the troposphere) decreasing
albedo and increasing solar heat absorption, therefore
net climate warming.
However, the effect
of waves depends on the wind, and the
net result fro measured results for clear days very closely approximates the reflection
of P polarized light from smooth water at high sun angles: the «classic» water
albedo of 0.06 is a good approximation between 90 degrees and 25 degrees solar angles.
In the paper, the two main findings are said to be that: (1) the
net local effect
of the volatiles lost when trees are cut is cooling, and (2) that this volatiles effect is
of similar magnitude to
albedo and CO2 effects from deforestation.
And I think you hit the nail on the head with: «5) Once we scientifically - oriented Skeptics accept the reality
of the Atmospheric «greenhouse effect» we are, IMHO, better positioned to question the much larger issues which are: a) HOW MUCH does CO2 contribute to that effect, b) HOW MUCH does human burning
of fossil fuels and land use changes that reduce
albedo affect warming, and, perhaps most important, c) Does the resultant enhanced CO2 level and higher mean temperature actually have a
net benefit for humankind?»
Re # 5 As far as I understand it (drawing on my recollections
of a lecture Hansen gave here at Yale a few weeks back), the actual
net forcing associated with Milankovich cycles is relatively small, but it tends to trigger massive feedbacks (e.g. polar ice expanding, lowering
albedo, cooling, expanding more) that «snowball» into a glacial period.
The «equilibrium state» can not absorb more LW since, by the definition
of equilibrium, the
net absorption is zero, and insolation (corrected for
albedo) is still the same.
[23] Chapter 8
of AR5, referring to a seven model study, states that» There is no agreement on the sign
of the temperature change induced by anthropogenic land - use change» and concludes that a
net cooling
of the surface — accounting for processes that are not limited to the
albedo — is about as likely as not».