All I know is many decades ago I learned el
ninos occurred roughly every 7 years.
Not exact matches
Regardless, on said chart, the spike that
occurred in 1998 happened very very quickly, so yes, with an el
nino event, the difference could easily be made up in a few months.
One thing I am pretty sure about is that the tendency for el
nino to
occur near solar minimum and la nina to
occur near solar maximum, and the capability of the ocean to store solar radiation on decadal timescales has led to an underestimation of the solar forcing.
Large El
ninos tend to
occur at solar minimum, under a decrease in solar forcing.Both poles had large polar vortex operating due to decreases in O3., with the winter night jets acting as transport barriers.