Based on the S&P 500 data,
nominal dividend behavior is reasonably stable.
This is because the growth rate in
the nominal dividend amount is usually steady, but inflation jumps around considerably.
Since
the nominal dividend growth rate is 5.5 % and the long term inflation rate is around 3.5 %, (1 + real rate of growth) = (1.055) / (1.035) = 1.0193 or the real rate of growth = 1.93 %.
The Dow Jones Utilities Average
nominal dividend amount is almost entirely unrelated to the earnings yield 100E10 / P of the S&P 500.
I allocated $ 50000 to dividend stocks with an initial dividend yield of 3.5 % and
a nominal dividend growth rate of 5 % per year.
Dividend Growth to the Rescue Since inflation averages around 3.0 % per year, the required
nominal dividend growth rates are 4.0 % and 5.5 %.
Nominal dividend growth is virtually independent of price.
This time I took the investments from Taken At Face Value, Condition A. Investment A has a 3.5 % initial yield and an 8 % per year
nominal dividend growth rate.
Investment B has a 6.1 % initial yield and a 2 % per year
nominal dividend growth rate.
I took the investments from Taken At Face Value, Condition A. Investment A has a 3.5 % initial yield and an 8 % per year
nominal dividend growth rate.
They decompose the total returns into the three subclasses of return sources: changing valuation, dividend income, and
nominal dividend growth.
My investigation S&P 500 Dividend Growth shows that
nominal dividend amounts (i.e., before adjusting for inflation) have behaved very well since the middle of the twentieth century.
The scale factors are -LSB-(1 +
nominal dividend growth rate) / (1 + inflation)-RSB- ^ N.
For planning purposes, assume that the sum of the initial dividend yield and the annual
NOMINAL dividend growth rate equals a constant.
I believe that a careful investor can easily get a combination of 3 % to 4 % initial dividend yield and 5 % per year
NOMINAL dividend growth.
Nominal dividend amounts have not fallen more than 5 % since then.
It should be straightforward to match the 5 % per year
nominal dividend growth rate of the S&P 500.
It currently has a dividend yield just under 2 % and, for the last half century, it has had an amazingly steady 5 %
nominal dividend growth rate.
It retains the S&P 500's 5 % per year
nominal dividend growth rate.
If the initial dividend yield is 4 % and
the nominal dividend growth rate is 5 % per year AND if the Stock A allocation is 80 % and the TIPS allocation is 20 %, the Continuing Withdrawal Rate is 4.95 %.
It has had a remarkably stable
NOMINAL dividend growth rate of 5 % per year since the 1950s (actually, since the 1940s).
The nominal dividend growth of the S&P 500 index has been remarkably stable at 5.5 % per year (annualized).
Keep in mind that these are growth rates of
the NOMINAL dividend amount.
Nominal dividend income continued to grow, just not as fast as inflation.
I collected additional data with initial dividend yields of 3 %, 4 % and 5 % and
nominal dividend growth rates of 6 %, 8 % and 10 % per year.
If so, the formula becomes: Inflation adjusted dividend income = (initial dividend amount) * (1.055 ^ N) / (1.03 ^ N) With preferred stock and / or bond income, use
a nominal dividend growth rate of 0 %.
The formula for the real income of an investment at year N is: Inflation adjusted dividend income = (initial dividend amount) * -LCB-[1 + (
nominal dividend growth rate)-RSB- ^ N -RCB- / -LCB-[1 + (inflation rate)-RSB- ^ N -RCB- Typically, you would use a
nominal dividend growth rate of 5.5 % per year in the absence of other information and 3 % per year inflation.
In trying to characterize dividend approaches, I found that
the nominal dividend of the S&P 500 index has grown consistently at 5.5 %.
Which means
the nominal dividend payment has grown.
The reason appears to have come from secondary effects: payout ratios were too high during the Great Depression and real dividends fell even though
nominal dividends grew during the late 1960s and early 1970s.
This is a 23 % reduction (
nominal dividends).
To an excellent approximation,
nominal dividends of the S&P 500 index grow from 4.8 % to 5.0 % annually.
Finally, I made a chart of 1951 - 2004
Nominal Dividends versus Year.
I made a chart of 1881 - 2004
Nominal Dividends versus Year.
Nominal dividends continued to grow.
There were several years during the Great Depression when
nominal dividends showed a loss at Year 10.
Here is the equation for the total percentage increase in
nominal dividends at Year 10.
Not exact matches
«Though Apple recently commenced paying a common
dividend and initiated a
nominal share repurchase program, we believe that there is much more that the Board should do for shareholders.
It would also be necessary to look at interest rates today vs. historical (
nominal and real), and
dividend yields.
Here are two overlays — one with the
nominal price, excluding
dividends, and the other with the price adjusted for inflation based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (which is usually just referred to as the CPI).
«If net income continued growing at this more modest pace, in lockstep with
nominal GDP, corporations would not be able to continue growing
dividends at current rates while keeping payout ratios constant.»
It shows the
nominal returns of the stock market (before inflation and excluding
dividends).
We look at equity returns from several perspectives:
Nominal, Real, Price only, and Price plus
dividends.
On the basis of
nominal total returns (including
dividends), we estimate zero or negative returns for the S&P 500 on every horizon shorter than about 8 years.
• 9.48 %
nominal, including
dividends.
If I assume a
dividend growth rate of 6 percent (about the long - run average *), the current S&P 500
dividend yield of 2.1 percent (from multpl.com), a terminal S&P 500
dividend yield of 4 percent (Hussman says that the
dividend yield on stocks has historically averaged about 4 percent), the expected
nominal return over ten years is 2.4 percent annually.
I should note that in each of these models, we're assuming a long - term growth rate for cyclically - adjusted earnings, revenues,
dividends,
nominal GDP and so forth of about 6.3 % annually.
From the equation, we can see that the annualized
dividend growth rate is 6.75 % per year (
nominal).
I teamed it up with DVY assuming a current yield of 3.97 % and a
dividend growth rate of 5.5 %
nominal, the same as for the S&P 500 index.