Since
the nominal dividend growth rate is 5.5 % and the long term inflation rate is around 3.5 %, (1 + real rate of growth) = (1.055) / (1.035) = 1.0193 or the real rate of growth = 1.93 %.
I allocated $ 50000 to dividend stocks with an initial dividend yield of 3.5 % and
a nominal dividend growth rate of 5 % per year.
Dividend Growth to the Rescue Since inflation averages around 3.0 % per year, the required
nominal dividend growth rates are 4.0 % and 5.5 %.
Nominal dividend growth is virtually independent of price.
This time I took the investments from Taken At Face Value, Condition A. Investment A has a 3.5 % initial yield and an 8 % per year
nominal dividend growth rate.
Investment B has a 6.1 % initial yield and a 2 % per year
nominal dividend growth rate.
I took the investments from Taken At Face Value, Condition A. Investment A has a 3.5 % initial yield and an 8 % per year
nominal dividend growth rate.
They decompose the total returns into the three subclasses of return sources: changing valuation, dividend income, and
nominal dividend growth.
The scale factors are -LSB-(1 +
nominal dividend growth rate) / (1 + inflation)-RSB- ^ N.
For planning purposes, assume that the sum of the initial dividend yield and the annual
NOMINAL dividend growth rate equals a constant.
I believe that a careful investor can easily get a combination of 3 % to 4 % initial dividend yield and 5 % per year
NOMINAL dividend growth.
It should be straightforward to match the 5 % per year
nominal dividend growth rate of the S&P 500.
It currently has a dividend yield just under 2 % and, for the last half century, it has had an amazingly steady 5 %
nominal dividend growth rate.
It retains the S&P 500's 5 % per year
nominal dividend growth rate.
If the initial dividend yield is 4 % and
the nominal dividend growth rate is 5 % per year AND if the Stock A allocation is 80 % and the TIPS allocation is 20 %, the Continuing Withdrawal Rate is 4.95 %.
It has had a remarkably stable
NOMINAL dividend growth rate of 5 % per year since the 1950s (actually, since the 1940s).
The nominal dividend growth of the S&P 500 index has been remarkably stable at 5.5 % per year (annualized).
I collected additional data with initial dividend yields of 3 %, 4 % and 5 % and
nominal dividend growth rates of 6 %, 8 % and 10 % per year.
If so, the formula becomes: Inflation adjusted dividend income = (initial dividend amount) * (1.055 ^ N) / (1.03 ^ N) With preferred stock and / or bond income, use
a nominal dividend growth rate of 0 %.
The formula for the real income of an investment at year N is: Inflation adjusted dividend income = (initial dividend amount) * -LCB-[1 + (
nominal dividend growth rate)-RSB- ^ N -RCB- / -LCB-[1 + (inflation rate)-RSB- ^ N -RCB- Typically, you would use a
nominal dividend growth rate of 5.5 % per year in the absence of other information and 3 % per year inflation.
Not exact matches
If I assume a
dividend growth rate of 6 percent (about the long - run average *), the current S&P 500
dividend yield of 2.1 percent (from multpl.com), a terminal S&P 500
dividend yield of 4 percent (Hussman says that the
dividend yield on stocks has historically averaged about 4 percent), the expected
nominal return over ten years is 2.4 percent annually.
I should note that in each of these models, we're assuming a long - term
growth rate for cyclically - adjusted earnings, revenues,
dividends,
nominal GDP and so forth of about 6.3 % annually.
From the equation, we can see that the annualized
dividend growth rate is 6.75 % per year (
nominal).
I teamed it up with DVY assuming a current yield of 3.97 % and a
dividend growth rate of 5.5 %
nominal, the same as for the S&P 500 index.
I used a DVY
dividend growth rate of 5.5 %
nominal, same as for the S&P 500, and 0 % for PFF.
Keep in mind that these are
growth rates of the
NOMINAL dividend amount.
The Investment Return equals (0.6 * the initial
dividend yield of Stock A + 0.4 * [the 2 % real TIPS interest rate + the 3.0 % inflation rate]-RRB- + (0.6 * the
nominal growth rate of the Stock A
dividends + 0.4 * the
growth rate of TIPS (which equals the 3 % inflation rate)-- the 3.0 % inflation rate.
Assuming that it only matches the
dividend growth of the S&P 500, it will grow at 5.5 % per year (
nominal).
I treat each investment as an initial
dividend yield with a fixed (
nominal)
growth rate.
As a reference, the S&P 500
dividend growth rate is 5 % per year (annualized,
nominal).
Since 1950 (actually, since the 1940s), S&P 500
dividends have had a remarkably steady
nominal growth rate of 5 % per year.
I describe the two investments by their initial
dividend yields,
dividend growth rates (
nominal) and allocations.
I set its
dividend growth rate to 5.0 %
nominal, which is low but matches that of the S&P 500.
My investigation S&P 500
Dividend Growth shows that nominal dividend amounts (i.e., before adjusting for inflation) have behaved very well since the middle of the twentieth
Dividend Growth shows that
nominal dividend amounts (i.e., before adjusting for inflation) have behaved very well since the middle of the twentieth
dividend amounts (i.e., before adjusting for inflation) have behaved very well since the middle of the twentieth century.
If I assume a
dividend growth rate of 6 percent (about the long - run average *), the current S&P 500
dividend yield of 2.1 percent (from multpl.com), a terminal S&P 500
dividend yield of 4 percent (Hussman says that the
dividend yield on stocks has historically averaged about 4 percent), the expected
nominal return over ten years is 2.4 percent annually.
Your income stream will come within about 1 % of the initial
dividend yield plus the annualized,
nominal growth rate of the
dividend minus the inflation rate.
The Investment Return = Initial
Dividend Yield +
Dividend Growth Rate (annualized,
nominal)-- Inflation = 4 % +5 % -3 % = 6 %.
Notice that Stock A has an 8 % per year (
nominal)
dividend growth rate.
Stock A has a 4 %
dividend yield and a 5.0 % (
nominal)
dividend growth rate.
Of the 9.6 percent
nominal total return earned by stocks over the past century, fully 9.5 percent has been contributed by investment return - 4.5 percent by
dividend yields and 5 percent from earnings
growth.
And,
dividends may also provide a modest potential hedge against changes in
nominal GDP
growth, should the economy decelerate unexpectedly.
Most of the time, the sum of the
dividend yield and the
dividend growth rate of the S&P 500 has been 9 % to 10 % (
nominal).
Similarly, at 5.5 %
nominal growth, the
dividend amount increases to 3.0 % * (1.307) = 3.92 % of the original balance at Year 5 and 3.0 % * (1.708) = 5.12 % of the original balance at Year 10.
(
Nominal)
dividend growth rates of 5.0 % to 5.5 % are sufficient to support younger retirees.
Since inflation is typically close to 3.0 % (long - term), (
nominal)
dividend growth rates of 5.0 % to 5.5 % are sufficient to support younger retirees.
The S&P 500
dividend nominal growth rate has been remarkably stable.
At 4 %
nominal growth, the
dividend amount increases to 3.0 % * (1.217) = 3.65 % of the original balance at Year 5 and 3.0 % * (1.480) = 4.44 % of the original balance at Year 10.
This is because the
growth rate in the
nominal dividend amount is usually steady, but inflation jumps around considerably.
Using the low end of his (
nominal)
dividend growth rate requirements, such a blend produces a continuing withdrawal rate of 5.5 %.