Dividend Growth to the Rescue Since inflation averages around 3.0 % per year, the
required nominal dividend growth rates are 4.0 % and 5.5 %.
I collected additional data with initial dividend yields of 3 %, 4 % and 5 % and
nominal dividend growth rates of 6 %, 8 % and 10 % per year.
To an excellent approximation,
nominal dividends of the S&P 500 index grow from 4.8 % to 5.0 % annually.
Dividend Growth Projections I have followed up my initial investigation by looking
at NOMINAL dividends.
The reason appears to have come from secondary effects: payout ratios were too high during the Great Depression and real dividends fell even though
nominal dividends grew during the late 1960s and early 1970s.
It has had a remarkably
stable NOMINAL dividend growth rate of 5 % per year since the 1950s (actually, since the 1940s).
For planning purposes, assume that the sum of the initial dividend yield and the
annual NOMINAL dividend growth rate equals a constant.
The Dow Jones Utilities
Average nominal dividend amount is almost entirely unrelated to the earnings yield 100E10 / P of the S&P 500.
I took the investments from Taken At Face Value, Condition A. Investment A has a 3.5 % initial yield and an 8 % per year
nominal dividend growth rate.
Which means
the nominal dividend payment has grown.
In trying to characterize dividend approaches, I found that
the nominal dividend of the S&P 500 index has grown consistently at 5.5 %.
This is a 23 % reduction (
nominal dividends).
[TECHNICAL DETAIL: This is mathematically equivalent to using an inflation adjusted, real, initial dividend yield of (0.6 * [the initial dividend yield of Stock A — the 3 % inflation] + 0.4 * the 2 % real interest rate of the TIPS) plus a dividend growth rate of 0.6 * (
the nominal dividend growth rate of Stock A).]
Keep in mind that these are growth rates of
the NOMINAL dividend amount.
Dividend Reinvestment Plans recycle
the nominal dividend's cash back to the company by paying with script (shares) instead.
I assigned DVY a 5.5 % per year growth rate of
the nominal dividend amount.
The nominal dividend growth of the S&P 500 index has been remarkably stable at 5.5 % per year (annualized).
Here is a list of Declines in
the Nominal Dividend Amount since 1940: 1941.12 0.71 1942.12 0.59 Drop to 83 % 1941.12 E = 1.16 and single year payout ratio = 46 %.
If the initial dividend yield is 4 % and
the nominal dividend growth rate is 5 % per year AND if the Stock A allocation is 80 % and the TIPS allocation is 20 %, the Continuing Withdrawal Rate is 4.95 %.
It currently has a dividend yield just under 2 % and, for the last half century, it has had an amazingly steady 5 %
nominal dividend growth rate.
Finally, I made a chart of 1951 - 2004
Nominal Dividends versus Year.
Nominal dividend growth has been remarkably steady.
I made a chart of 1881 - 2004
Nominal Dividends versus Year.
I believe that a careful investor can easily get a combination of 3 % to 4 % initial dividend yield and 5 % per year
NOMINAL dividend growth.
The nominal dividend growth rate is 5 %.
This is what I found: If the initial dividend yield is 3 % and
the nominal dividend growth rate is 5 % per year AND if the Stock A allocation is 80 % and the TIPS allocation is 20 %, the Continuing Withdrawal Rate is 3.95 %.
The S&P 500
nominal dividend growth rate has been remarkably stable at 5 % per year since 1950 (actually, since the 1940s).
My investigation S&P 500 Dividend Growth shows that
nominal dividend amounts (i.e., before adjusting for inflation) have behaved very well since the middle of the twentieth century.
I characterize it by its initial dividend yield and
its nominal dividend growth rate (annualized).]
They decompose the total returns into the three subclasses of return sources: changing valuation, dividend income, and
nominal dividend growth.
DVY does better, with an initial yield of 3.66 % and
a nominal dividend growth rate close to 6 %.