To an excellent approximation,
nominal dividends of the S&P 500 index grow from 4.8 % to 5.0 % annually.
In trying to characterize dividend approaches, I found that
the nominal dividend of the S&P 500 index has grown consistently at 5.5 %.
Not exact matches
It shows the
nominal returns
of the stock market (before inflation and excluding
dividends).
On the basis
of nominal total returns (including
dividends), we estimate zero or negative returns for the S&P 500 on every horizon shorter than about 8 years.
If I assume a
dividend growth rate
of 6 percent (about the long - run average *), the current S&P 500
dividend yield
of 2.1 percent (from multpl.com), a terminal S&P 500
dividend yield
of 4 percent (Hussman says that the
dividend yield on stocks has historically averaged about 4 percent), the expected
nominal return over ten years is 2.4 percent annually.
I should note that in each
of these models, we're assuming a long - term growth rate for cyclically - adjusted earnings, revenues,
dividends,
nominal GDP and so forth
of about 6.3 % annually.
I teamed it up with DVY assuming a current yield
of 3.97 % and a
dividend growth rate
of 5.5 %
nominal, the same as for the S&P 500 index.
The faster I can build my capital, the greater the
nominal amounts
of dividends I will receive when I convert back into a
dividend portfolio.
While the yield looks good, the
nominal amount
of dividends I actually received is rather bad.
Practicing for Retirement In this analysis, I assumed that the DVY
dividend grows only as fast as that
of the S&P 500, which is 5.5 % per year (
nominal; without adjusting for inflation).
The formula for the real income
of an investment at year N is: Inflation adjusted
dividend income = (initial
dividend amount) * -LCB-[1 + (
nominal dividend growth rate)-RSB- ^ N -RCB- / -LCB-[1 + (inflation rate)-RSB- ^ N -RCB- Typically, you would use a
nominal dividend growth rate
of 5.5 % per year in the absence
of other information and 3 % per year inflation.
If so, the formula becomes: Inflation adjusted
dividend income = (initial
dividend amount) * (1.055 ^ N) / (1.03 ^ N) With preferred stock and / or bond income, use a
nominal dividend growth rate
of 0 %.
Dividend amounts rise steadily in terms
of NOMINAL (without adjustments for inflation) dollars.
I used a DVY
dividend growth rate
of 5.5 %
nominal, same as for the S&P 500, and 0 % for PFF.
I collected additional data with initial
dividend yields
of 3 %, 4 % and 5 % and
nominal dividend growth rates
of 6 %, 8 % and 10 % per year.
Keep in mind that these are growth rates
of the
NOMINAL dividend amount.
The Investment Return equals (0.6 * the initial
dividend yield
of Stock A + 0.4 * [the 2 % real TIPS interest rate + the 3.0 % inflation rate]-RRB- + (0.6 * the
nominal growth rate
of the Stock A
dividends + 0.4 * the growth rate
of TIPS (which equals the 3 % inflation rate)-- the 3.0 % inflation rate.
The
nominal dividend growth
of the S&P 500 index has been remarkably stable at 5.5 % per year (annualized).
Assuming that it only matches the
dividend growth
of the S&P 500, it will grow at 5.5 % per year (
nominal).
The Morningstar Income &
Dividend Investing discussion board recently included a listing
of 60 years
of FKINX total (
nominal) return data.
It has had a remarkably stable
NOMINAL dividend growth rate
of 5 % per year since the 1950s (actually, since the 1940s).
It should be straightforward to match the 5 % per year
nominal dividend growth rate
of the S&P 500.
Using a final
dividend amount
of $ 20.00 and an initial
dividend amount
of $ 1.4867, the rate is 5.03 % per year (
nominal).
Since 1950 (actually, since the 1940s), S&P 500
dividends have had a remarkably steady
nominal growth rate
of 5 % per year.
Finally, I made a chart
of 1951 - 2004
Nominal Dividends versus Year.
I made a chart
of 1881 - 2004
Nominal Dividends versus Year.
I believe that a careful investor can easily get a combination
of 3 % to 4 % initial
dividend yield and 5 % per year
NOMINAL dividend growth.
For planning purposes, assume that the sum
of the initial
dividend yield and the annual
NOMINAL dividend growth rate equals a constant.
I set its
dividend growth rate to 5.0 %
nominal, which is low but matches that
of the S&P 500.
My investigation S&P 500
Dividend Growth shows that nominal dividend amounts (i.e., before adjusting for inflation) have behaved very well since the middle of the twentieth
Dividend Growth shows that
nominal dividend amounts (i.e., before adjusting for inflation) have behaved very well since the middle of the twentieth
dividend amounts (i.e., before adjusting for inflation) have behaved very well since the middle
of the twentieth century.
If I assume a
dividend growth rate
of 6 percent (about the long - run average *), the current S&P 500
dividend yield
of 2.1 percent (from multpl.com), a terminal S&P 500
dividend yield
of 4 percent (Hussman says that the
dividend yield on stocks has historically averaged about 4 percent), the expected
nominal return over ten years is 2.4 percent annually.
Your income stream will come within about 1 %
of the initial
dividend yield plus the annualized,
nominal growth rate
of the
dividend minus the inflation rate.
They decompose the total returns into the three subclasses
of return sources: changing valuation,
dividend income, and
nominal dividend growth.
But while
dividend income has accounted for nearly 50 percent
of the long - term
nominal annual return on stocks and 75 percent
of the real annual return, even these figures dramatically understate the cumulative role played by
dividends.
Of the 9.6 percent
nominal total return earned by stocks over the past century, fully 9.5 percent has been contributed by investment return - 4.5 percent by
dividend yields and 5 percent from earnings growth.
Most
of the time, the sum
of the
dividend yield and the
dividend growth rate
of the S&P 500 has been 9 % to 10 % (
nominal).
Similarly, at 5.5 %
nominal growth, the
dividend amount increases to 3.0 % * (1.307) = 3.92 %
of the original balance at Year 5 and 3.0 % * (1.708) = 5.12 %
of the original balance at Year 10.
(
Nominal)
dividend growth rates
of 5.0 % to 5.5 % are sufficient to support younger retirees.
Nominal dividend growth is virtually independent
of price.
Since inflation is typically close to 3.0 % (long - term), (
nominal)
dividend growth rates
of 5.0 % to 5.5 % are sufficient to support younger retirees.
I allocated $ 50000 to
dividend stocks with an initial
dividend yield
of 3.5 % and a
nominal dividend growth rate
of 5 % per year.
Aggregate
Dividends = (
Nominal GDP) x (Corporate Earnings as %
of GDP) x (Average
Dividend Payout Ratio)
At 4 %
nominal growth, the
dividend amount increases to 3.0 % * (1.217) = 3.65 %
of the original balance at Year 5 and 3.0 % * (1.480) = 4.44 %
of the original balance at Year 10.
That is, aggregate
dividends can be determined arithmetically by
nominal GDP, corporate earnings as a percent
of nominal GDP, and the average
dividend payout ratio.
The Dow Jones Utilities Average
nominal dividend amount is almost entirely unrelated to the earnings yield 100E10 / P
of the S&P 500.
Since the
nominal dividend growth rate is 5.5 % and the long term inflation rate is around 3.5 %, (1 + real rate
of growth) = (1.055) / (1.035) = 1.0193 or the real rate
of growth = 1.93 %.
The initial
dividend yield is the same, regardless
of whether you are using
nominal or real dollar amounts.
Conceptually, if a corporation can support a long term return
of 10 % (
nominal), it carries less risk to a retiree if the return is strictly from
dividends alone than an alternative that requires capital appreciation as well as
dividend income to deliver the same return.
Using the low end
of his (
nominal)
dividend growth rate requirements, such a blend produces a continuing withdrawal rate
of 5.5 %.