Interest rates and
nominal economic growth rates tend to move in tandem, so their competing effects on «justified» valuations generally cancel out.
Not exact matches
Finally, in a
nominal GDP targeting regime, a decline in r - star caused by slower trend
growth automatically leads to a higher
rate of trend inflation, providing a larger buffer to respond to
economic downturns.
Well, we know that earnings, revenues, and
nominal GDP have historically proceeded at a peak - to - peak
growth rate of 6 % annually across
economic cycles.
While there are some signs of recognition such as the Fed's reduction in its estimated neutral
rate from 4.5 percent to 3.0 percent during the last 2 years, the IMF's explicit use of the term secular stagnation in its World
Economic Outlook, ECB president Mario Draghi's call for global coordination and greater use of fiscal policy, and Japan's indicated interest in fiscal - monetary cooperation, policymakers still have not made sufficiently radical adjustments in their world view to reflect this new reality of a world where generating adequate
nominal GDP
growth is likely to be the primary macroeconomic policy challenge for the next decade.
Then again, a sustained period of suppressed interest
rates is only likely in a continued environment of restrained
nominal economic growth.
The private sector economists are surveyed for only a selective number of aggregate
economic and financial indicators: real gross domestic product (GDP)
growth; GDP inflation,
nominal GDP;, the 3 - month treasury bill
rate;, the 10 - year government bond
rate;, the unemployment
rate; the, consumer price index; the exchange
rate (US cents / Cdn $); and finally, and U.S. real GDP
growth.
Indeed, because the level of interest
rates at any point in time is highly correlated with the level of
nominal economic growth over the preceding decade, the relationship between starting valuations and actual subsequent S&P 500
nominal total returns is nearly independent of interest
rates.
As Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda put it: «With the level of
nominal interest
rates being high, Japan's economy will have more policy room to mitigate the impact of future
economic downturns, or will be equipped with a sort of insurance for sustained
economic growth.»
The data is unambiguous on current
economic conditions - GDP
growth in the last quarter of 2015 was a meager 2.11 % with full year
growth of 2.79 % according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS); inflation rose sharply to 11.4 % in February with prospects of reaching 12 % by March; capital markets have remained bearish; according to UNCTAD Nigeria's FDI fell by 27.7 % to $ 3.4 billion in 2015, and on current trends may fall even more precipitously in 2016; the de facto exchange
rate of the Naira for most producers and consumers is now N322 / $ even though CBN maintains a
nominal N197 / $ for privileged persons; several
economic sectors - construction, government, manufacturing, oil and gas and hotels and restaurants are in recession or barely out of it; government's official foreign reserves is down to $ 27.8 bn; and unemployment and under - employment
rates have worsened 10.4 % and 18.7 % by the end of 2015.
Usually the TSX can capture
nominal economic growth at a
rate of roughly 4 % annually.
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Currency: Australian Dollar ($ A) Market Exchange
Rate (5/24/02): US $ 1 = $ A1.79
Nominal Gross Domestic (GDP, 2001E): U.S. $ 365.8 billion Real GDP
Growth Rate (2001E): 4.1 % (2002F): 3.8 % Inflation
Rate (2001E): 4.3 % (2002F): 3.0 % Unemployment
Rate (2001E): 6.9 % (2002F): 7.0 % Current Account Balance (2001E): - $ 15.3 billion (2002F): - $ 16.9 billion Major Trading Partners: Japan, other Far East, European Union, United States Major Export Products: crude materials, food and live animals, mineral fuels and lubricants Major Import Products: machinery and transport equipment, manufactured goods, chemicals
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Minister of the Economy: Roberto Lavagna Currency: Peso Financial Exchange
Rate: US$ 1 = 3.6 Argentine Pesos (10/29/02)
Nominal Gross Domestic Product (2001E): $ 267.6 billion (2002E): $ 111.3 billion Real GDP
Growth Rate: (2001E): -4.5 % (2002E): -13.7 % Inflation
Rate: (2001E): -1.1 % (2002E): 30.7 % Unemployment
Rate: (2002E): 22 % Current Account Balance as a % of GDP: (2001E): -1.7 % (2002E): 7.3 % Major Trading Partners: Brazil, United States, Japan, Uruguay, Chile, Germany, France Major Export Products (2000): Agricultural products (including manufacturing of agricultural products)(55 %), industrial products (30 %), energy (15 %) Major Import Products (2000): Consumer goods (23 %), industrial inputs (including raw materials)(34 %), capital goods (43 %)
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Minister of Economic Development and Trade: German Oskarovich Gref Minister of Finance: Aleksey Leonidovich Kudrin Currency: Ruble Market Exchange Rate (11/6/02): $ 1 = 31.8 rubles Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP)(2001E): $ 319.3 billion; (2002E): $ 352.6 billion Real GDP Growth Rate (2001E): 5.0 %; (2002E): 4.1 % Inflation Rate (Change in Consumer Prices, Dec. 200
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Minister of
Economic Development and Trade: German Oskarovich Gref Minister of Finance: Aleksey Leonidovich Kudrin Currency: Ruble Market Exchange Rate (11/6/02): $ 1 = 31.8 rubles Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP)(2001E): $ 319.3 billion; (2002E): $ 352.6 billion Real GDP Growth Rate (2001E): 5.0 %; (2002E): 4.1 % Inflation Rate (Change in Consumer Prices, Dec. 200
Economic Development and Trade: German Oskarovich Gref Minister of Finance: Aleksey Leonidovich Kudrin Currency: Ruble Market Exchange
Rate (11/6/02): $ 1 = 31.8 rubles
Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP)(2001E): $ 319.3 billion; (2002E): $ 352.6 billion Real GDP
Growth Rate (2001E): 5.0 %; (2002E): 4.1 % Inflation
Rate (Change in Consumer Prices, Dec. 2000 - Dec.