Sentences with phrase «nominal total»

Of the 9.6 percent nominal total return earned by stocks over the past century, fully 9.5 percent has been contributed by investment return - 4.5 percent by dividend yields and 5 percent from earnings growth.

A plausible, and historically reliable estimate of 10 - year nominal total returns here works out to only 1.06 * (15/22.7) ^ -LRB-.10)-1 +.022 = 3.9 % annually, which is roughly the same estimate that we obtain from a much more robust set of fundamental measures and methods.

An investment in the S&P 500 Index at present levels is likely to achieve a nominal total return of about 4.4 % annually over the coming decade, and investors will have to tolerate a great deal of volatility in pursuit of that return.

The next chart shows the margin - adjusted CAPE on an inverted log scale (blue), along with actual subsequent S&P 500 average annual nominal total returns (red).

By our own estimates, we expect the nominal total return on the S&P 500 over the coming decade to average about 3.8 % annually, though with very broad cyclical fluctuations producing that overall result.

We subtract inflation from the T - note nominal total return to get the T - note real total return.

As a result, the most historically reliable valuation measures now suggest that the S&P 500 will experience a net loss over the coming decade, while including broader (if slightly less reliable) measures results in projected S&P 500 10 - year annual nominal total returns of about 1.4 % annually (see Ockham's Razor and the Market Cycle for the arithmetic behind these estimates).

Rather, it means that investors will receive returns consistent with relatively high starting valuations — nominal total returns for the stock market of around 5 % -6 %.

On valuation measures most strongly correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 nominal total returns, we presently expect negative total returns for the S&P 500 on a 10 - year horizon, and total returns averaging only about 1 % annually over the coming 12 - year period (chart).

Indeed, because the level of interest rates at any point in time is highly correlated with the level of nominal economic growth over the preceding decade, the relationship between starting valuations and actual subsequent S&P 500 nominal total returns is nearly independent of interest rates.

Based on the valuation measures most strongly correlated with actual subsequent total returns (and those correlations are near or above 90 %), we continue to estimate that the S&P 500 will achieve zero or negative nominal total returns over horizons of 8 years or less, and only about 2 % annually over the coming decade.

In any event, our view is that the 10 - year nominal total return on such conventional asset allocations is likely to be less than 2 % annually.

The chart below shows this relationship using market capitalization to corporate gross value added (blue, on an inverted log scale) versus actual subsequent 12 - year S&P 500 nominal total returns (red).

The early weeks of 2015 are the first time in history that both 10 - year Treasury yields and our estimates of prospective 10 - year nominal total returns for the S&P 500 have both declined below 2 % annually.

On that assumption, the corresponding 10 - year projection for nominal total returns in stocks would be -LSB-(1.0494) ^ 16 / (1.10) ^ 6] ^ (1/10)-1 = 2.0 %.

We presently estimate a nominal total return on the S&P 500 averaging 4.1 % annually over the coming decade.

On a 12 - year horizon, we project likely S&P 500 nominal total returns averaging close to zero, with the likelihood of an interim market loss on the order of 50 - 60 % over the completion of the current cycle.

On the basis of nominal total returns (including dividends), we estimate zero or negative returns for the S&P 500 on every horizon shorter than about 8 years.

Historically, those interest rate and nominal growth effects have largely offset, which is why Market Cap / GVA has been reliably correlated with actual 10 - year S&P 500 nominal total returns regardless of the prevailing level of interest rates.

They also warn that because of extended zero - interest policy by the Fed, security valuations have advanced to the point where prospective nominal total returns on a conventional portfolio mix are likely to average well below 2 % annually, with negative real returns, over the coming 12 - year period.

On that point, it's worth noting that we currently estimate a prospective 10 - year nominal total return for the S&P 500 of just 3.9 % annually.

Actual subsequent 12 - year S&P 500 nominal total returns are plotted in red (right scale).

The red line (right scale) is the average annual nominal total return of the S&P 500 over the subsequent 12 - year period.

With the S&P 500 within about 8 % of its highest level in history, with historically reliable valuation measures at obscene levels, implying near - zero 10 - 12 year S&P 500 nominal total returns; with an extended period of extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions replaced by deterioration in market internals that signal a clear shift toward risk - aversion among investors; with credit spreads on low - grade debt blowing out to multi-year highs; and with leading economic measures deteriorating rapidly, we continue to classify market conditions within the most hostile return / risk profile we identify — a classification that has been observed in only about 9 % of history.

At current market levels, our estimate for 12 - year S&P 500 average nominal total returns has collapsed to just 0.8 % annually.

We've recently emphasized that our estimates for probable S&P 500 nominal total returns have now declined below zero on every horizon of 7 years and shorter.

We find that in market cycles across history, this new measure is better correlated (92 %) with actual subsequent S&P 500 nominal total returns than even the S&P 500 price / revenue ratio and market capitalization / nominal GDP.

As valuations rise, prospective future returns fall, and our 12 - year projection for S&P 500 nominal total returns has now dropped to just 1.4 % annually.

At longer horizons, the 6.3 % growth rate that we've assumed for nominal GDP over the coming years will begin to bail investors out given enough time, and as a result, our projection for 10 - year S&P 500 nominal total returns peeks its head up above zero, at about 2.4 % annually from current levels.

From a valuation standpoint, we estimate that the S&P 500 Index would have to fall to the 1000 level to bring prospective 10 - year nominal total returns toward their historical norm of about 10 % annually.

Not exact matches

Assuming employers can find this balance, total employee compensation should rise in line with nominal GDP growth, Yamaguchi says.

That factor, along with above - trend GDP growth, could fuel an increase in total employee compensation by slightly more than 2 % in 2017 and 2018 — in line with nominal GDP growth — while growth in average hourly earnings could accelerate to around 3 % in 2018, according to Morgan Stanley Chief Japan Economist Takeshi Yamaguchi, in a recent report.

The following chart shows the same data on an inverted log scale (blue line, left), along with the actual subsequent 12 - year nominal average annual total return of the S&P 500 Index (red line, right).

The components of nominal GDP represent the applicable tax bases for personal and corporate income tax revenues, which represent about 60 % of total federal revenues.

In Q4 2015, total nominal retail sales were $ 1.186 trillion.

In the 2006 Budget, the government promised to reduce the deficit by $ 3 billion per year; to reduce the federal debt - to - GDP ratio to 25 per cent by 2012 - 13; to eliminate the total government sector debt (which includes the federal, provincial and local governments as well as the Canada and Quebec pension plans) by 2021; and finally, to keep the growth in program expenses below the rate of growth in nominal GDP.

Selsick estimates the relationship between the Shiller - 16 and subsequent 16 - year total returns in the S&P 500, and arrives at a 16 - year estimate of prospective nominal returns of 4.94 % annually.

Together, just these five countries together hold 66 % of the world's debt in nominal terms — good for a total of $ 41.6 trillion.

The average secular bull market lasted 21.2 years and produced a total return of 17.2 percent in nominal terms and 15.9 percent in real terms.

Total sea fish annual industry turnover was an estimated # 3.1 billion in 2014, a 14 % decrease since 2012 in nominal terms.

And Mayor Byron W. Brown, running for re-election with only nominal competition in the general election, was suddenly back on television, spending a total of $ 106,500 in little more than two weeks on ads, campaign literature and a get - out - the - vote effort for himself and his fellow Democrats running for countywide office.

The incoming staff will see the deputy supervisor's role transition into either a nonpaying or «nominal» paying role, Jens - Smith said, while Jens - Smith — slated to make $ 145,938 with benefits in 2018 — will be taking $ 36,872 less than Walter's original total of $ 182,811 with benefits.

So lowering the total debt (in relative or in nominal terms) and paying back are mostly separate things.

She said she was inspired to run after the board's votes last year to increase taxes — the first increase after six years of nominal decreases — and to give salary raises totaling nearly $ 100,000 to elected officials, including 40 percent pay hikes for the board's four part - time members.

It is mind - boggling that there is fierce resistance to the richest New Yorkers being asked to continue paying the tax, which is nominal in relation to their total income, to keep educational and other vital services afloat.

The total pumping force employed is 2,380 nominal horsepower; and if the engines were at full work night and day, 44,000 tons of coal per annum would be used.

Figure 1 shows total expenditures per student since the 1993 — 94 school year in nominal and inflation - adjusted dollars.

Engine Type: Chevy Small - Block V - 8 Displacement (cu in): 350 Bore x Stroke (in): 4.000 x 3.480 Block (P / N 10105123): Cast - iron with 4 - bolt main caps Crankshaft (P / N 14088526): Nodular iron Connecting Rods (P / N 10108688): Powdered metal steel Pistons (P / N 12514101): Cast - aluminum Camshaft Type (P / N 24502476): Hydraulic flat tappet Camshaft Lift (in):.435 intake /.460 exhaust Camshaft Duration (@.050 in): 212 ° intake / 222 ° exhaust Cylinder Heads (P / N 12558060): Vortec iron; 64cc chambers Valve Size (in): 1.940 intake / 1.500 exhaust Compression Ratio: 9.1 nominal Rocker Arms (P / N 10089648): Stamped steel Rocker Arm Ratio: 1.5:1 Water Pump (P / N 88894341): Cast iron, long - style Flexplate (P / N 14088765): 12.750» Recommended Fuel: 92 octane Ignition Timing: Base 10 ° BTDC, 32 ° Total Maximum Recommended rpm: 5,500 Balanced: External

Options fitted to the 320i on test totalled over $ 10,000 worth, lifting the nominal purchase price from $ 61,900 to $ 72,021, which is still free of Luxury Car Tax.

In the facelifted S500, the new engine provides a nominal 429bhp, with an additional 22bhp delivered by the integrated starter motor for a total of 440bhp.