Sentences with phrase «nominal total returns on»

They also warn that because of extended zero - interest policy by the Fed, security valuations have advanced to the point where prospective nominal total returns on a conventional portfolio mix are likely to average well below 2 % annually, with negative real returns, over the coming 12 - year period.

We presently estimate a nominal total return on the S&P 500 averaging 4.1 % annually over the coming decade.

In any event, our view is that the 10 - year nominal total return on such conventional asset allocations is likely to be less than 2 % annually.

By our own estimates, we expect the nominal total return on the S&P 500 over the coming decade to average about 3.8 % annually, though with very broad cyclical fluctuations producing that overall result.

Not exact matches

We've recently emphasized that our estimates for probable S&P 500 nominal total returns have now declined below zero on every horizon of 7 years and shorter.

The following chart shows the same data on an inverted log scale (blue line, left), along with the actual subsequent 12 - year nominal average annual total return of the S&P 500 Index (red line, right).

With the S&P 500 within about 8 % of its highest level in history, with historically reliable valuation measures at obscene levels, implying near - zero 10 - 12 year S&P 500 nominal total returns; with an extended period of extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions replaced by deterioration in market internals that signal a clear shift toward risk - aversion among investors; with credit spreads on low - grade debt blowing out to multi-year highs; and with leading economic measures deteriorating rapidly, we continue to classify market conditions within the most hostile return / risk profile we identify — a classification that has been observed in only about 9 % of history.

On that point, it's worth noting that we currently estimate a prospective 10 - year nominal total return for the S&P 500 of just 3.9 % annually.

On the basis of nominal total returns (including dividends), we estimate zero or negative returns for the S&P 500 on every horizon shorter than about 8 yearOn the basis of nominal total returns (including dividends), we estimate zero or negative returns for the S&P 500 on every horizon shorter than about 8 yearon every horizon shorter than about 8 years.

On a 12 - year horizon, we project likely S&P 500 nominal total returns averaging close to zero, with the likelihood of an interim market loss on the order of 50 - 60 % over the completion of the current cyclOn a 12 - year horizon, we project likely S&P 500 nominal total returns averaging close to zero, with the likelihood of an interim market loss on the order of 50 - 60 % over the completion of the current cyclon the order of 50 - 60 % over the completion of the current cycle.

On that assumption, the corresponding 10 - year projection for nominal total returns in stocks would be -LSB-(1.0494) ^ 16 / (1.10) ^ 6] ^ (1/10)-1 = 2.0 %.

The chart below shows this relationship using market capitalization to corporate gross value added (blue, on an inverted log scale) versus actual subsequent 12 - year S&P 500 nominal total returns (red).

Based on the valuation measures most strongly correlated with actual subsequent total returns (and those correlations are near or above 90 %), we continue to estimate that the S&P 500 will achieve zero or negative nominal total returns over horizons of 8 years or less, and only about 2 % annually over the coming decade.

On valuation measures most strongly correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 nominal total returns, we presently expect negative total returns for the S&P 500 on a 10 - year horizon, and total returns averaging only about 1 % annually over the coming 12 - year period (chartOn valuation measures most strongly correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 nominal total returns, we presently expect negative total returns for the S&P 500 on a 10 - year horizon, and total returns averaging only about 1 % annually over the coming 12 - year period (charton a 10 - year horizon, and total returns averaging only about 1 % annually over the coming 12 - year period (chart).

The next chart shows the margin - adjusted CAPE on an inverted log scale (blue), along with actual subsequent S&P 500 average annual nominal total returns (red).

Implications for Required Return Rates Investors must calculate their total required rate of return (RRR) on a nominal basis, taking into account the effect of inflReturn Rates Investors must calculate their total required rate of return (RRR) on a nominal basis, taking into account the effect of inflreturn (RRR) on a nominal basis, taking into account the effect of inflation.