This faith is in spite of all evidence that shows the approach of averaging the results of models demonstrates that they have no particular model that can be relied upon for accuracy and the fact that
none of the models outputs match observations.
Not exact matches
If I am reading the
output of the ensemble
models correctly,
none of them suggest the possibility
of the recent low ice events.
Brandon, the answer is already in my original comment: 1)
None of the climate
models has been subjected to a formal V&V process (no validation report available) 2)
None of the
models is able to formally hind - cast past observations and as a matter
of fact there is a significant mismatch between
models outputs and measurements over [1880 — 1970] and [2000 — 2010] periods, which means that all
models would have failed to pass such a validation process.
Finally, there's consensus that we can not look at climate forecasts — in particular, probabilistic forecasts — the same way we view weather predictions, and
none of us would sell climate -
model output, either at face value or after statistical analysis, as a reliable representation
of the complete range
of possible futures.