But year - over-year
nominal wage growth came in at 2.5 percent last month.
The midpoint estimate, which uses rather charitable assumptions of 0.50 % annual employment growth and 2.24 % annual
nominal wage growth, and a far more generous splitting methodology than that used by the NDP, I get an estimate of 33,065 workers covered by the $ 15 minimum wage proposal, less than 1 / 3rd of the 100,000 worker claim.
As you've pointed out, your 2 % inflation target plus 1.5 % trend productivity growth allows for noninflationary
nominal wage growth of 3.5 %.
Because
nominal wage growth for a large fraction of workers has been held to zero, a somewhat higher rate of inflation would grease the wheels of the labor market by allowing real wages to fall (Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry 1996).
We intend to closely monitor
nominal wage growth to see if any pickup in it can help boost inflation.
Different wage series show different trends, but if you mash them together, as is my wont, you find that the tightening job market has, in fact, given workers a bit more bargaining clout and
nominal wage growth basically moved up from 2 to 2.5 percent.
Same data lag (and even worse
nominal wage growth after the oil bust in 86).
Contained
nominal wage growth is good if you worry about inflation picking up... but inflation has already picked up to almost match
nominal wage growth, squeezing real wages to nearly zero growth.
While
nominal wage growth has been lower than normal this cycle, when adjusted for the lower inflation we have experienced, real wage growth hasn't been so bad.
Compared to the previous three months,
nominal wage growth has remained unchanged, although it registered a rise to 2.7 percent from 2.3 in the financial sector, 1.3 to 1.6 percent in manufacturing and accelerated to 1.2 percent from 0.3 percent in construction.
The midpoint estimate, which uses rather charitable assumptions of 0.50 % annual employment growth and 2.24 % annual
nominal wage growth, and a far more generous splitting methodology than that used by the NDP, I get an estimate of 33,065 workers covered by the $ 15 minimum wage proposal, less than 1 / 3rd of the 100,000 worker claim.
Not exact matches
But decomposing real
wage growth in
nominal grown and inflation shows that the main driver has been virtually non-existent consumer price
growth:
On the
wage side, though there's always variance, most
wage and compensation series have been stuck at around 2 % year - over-year
growth (
nominal) with some, but not much, evidence of acceleration in response to the tightening labor market.
Because
nominal growth equals real
growth plus inflation, both
nominal wage and NGDP targets implicitly account for inflation while also focusing on indicators more likely to promote the goal of full employment.
Coming to
wage growth, the average annual weekly earnings of employees in
nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation) increased by 2.2 percent with bonuses and 2.1 percent excluding bonuses.