Biophysical Mechanisms and Feedbacks Defining the Boundaries of the Closed - Canopy Equatorial Forest At the continental scale,
nonlinear feedbacks between the equatorial forest and the atmosphere have been recognized for decades.
Biophysical Mechanisms and Feedbacks of
Nonlinear Feedbacks, Thresholds, and Hysteresis Trees that make up the main canopy, or emerge above it, access moisture
Nonlinear feedbacks, thresholds, and bi-stable hysteresis13 operate at the ecosystem scale.
Start a variety of model runs with different initial conditions, and they would show, like most calculations with complex
nonlinear feedbacks, random variations in the weather patterns computed for one or another region and season.
Nonlinear feedbacks that may exist within the West African climate system should also be considered (Jenkins et al., 2005).
But it is only a possibility, because a lot of other things are also going on, including
nonlinear feedbacks.
Recent global climate change is also likely to affect large - scale atmospheric circulation patterns, with strong
nonlinear feedbacks between thermodynamic and dynamic components of the climate system (10, 11).
It will start warming and the positive linear or
nonlinear feedbacks will reinforce the warming.
The climate system's
nonlinear feedbacks make it chaotic.
Menczer's work, which is also supported by the military's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and by the private James S. McDonnell Foundation, is part of a growing field that examines what are called complex,
nonlinear feedback systems.
In some cases it will be more, due to
nonlinear feedback.
Not exact matches
Granted, it is «slow» right now, but the melting has been increasing quite substantially, and whereas the IPCC had been speaking in the neighborhood of a sea level increase of 50 cm, figures between one to two meters are becoming common as the result of observed changes, and with the
nonlinear processes and resulting positive
feedback, Jim Hansen has suggested that a sea level doubling per decade and increase of several meters (up to 5 m) by the end of the century is more realistic.
Granted, it is «slow» right now, but the melting has been increasing quite substantially, and whereas the IPCC had been speaking in the neighborhood of a sea level increase of 50 cm, figures between one to two meters are becoming common as the result of the observed higher rates since, and with the
nonlinear processes and resulting positive
feedback, Jim Hansen has suggested that a sea level doubling per decade and increase of several meters (up to 5 m) by the end of the century is more realistic.
The second nonlinearity is that the water vapor
feedback depends on the moisture content of the air, which via the Clausius - Clapeyron relation is a
nonlinear function of temperature.
Separating the direct effects of all this, not to mention the
feedbacks (this stuff ISN» T additive, even tho it is convenient to think it is), is something that no one has adequately done, and I suspect that it is an ill posed problem given the
nonlinear chaotic nature of the climate system
It just strikes me that given this history, adaptation is the only viable strategy but also that there are large natural variability things with negative and positive short term
feedbacks that are constrained by
nonlinear effects and other offsetting
feedbacks.
Examples of such
nonlinear behaviour include rapid circulation changes in the North Atlantic and
feedbacks associated with terrestrial ecosystem changes.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/black-box-analysis-averaged-climate-models1.jpg?w=640 As you correctly and in agreement with Willis continue, such linear behaviour is not what you would expect from «inherently
nonlinear nature of the response to
feedbacks».
The three - body problem is of course at the center of Chaos theory and climate research has long acknowledged that the climate is a dynamical system existing on the edge of spatio - temperal chaos and that the complexity of multiple interacting positive and negative
feedbacks make it so particularly complex and
nonlinear.
We might physically expect this to happen if the system has strong
nonlinear negative
feedback terms that stabilize it around some particular (family of) attractors.
Imho what seems evident is that the
feedbacks are
nonlinear and they build up a thermostat, thus keeping the earth in balance.
For it was Lovelock's Gaia Hypothesis which first popularised the idea that the biosphere is a massively complex
nonlinear system that works to regulate many different subsystems towards a relatively narrow envelope of values necessary for the continuity of life on the planet through a tangle of negative
feedbacks, in much the same way the human body maintains constant internal conditions necessary for life.
That the most complex
nonlinear system on the planet has a built - in runaway
feedback mechanism based on the common and important molecules of H2O and CO2.
Such
nonlinear behavior depends upon amplifying
feedbacks, which, indeed, our climate simulations reveal in the Southern Ocean.
Did you know that the exact same real world system can be modeled with the exact same
feedback as either linear or
nonlinear by choice of flow variables?
«The Earth's climate system is highly
nonlinear: inputs and outputs are not proportional, change is often episodic and abrupt, rather than slow and gradual, and multiple equilibria are the norm... there is a relatively poor understanding of the different types of nonlinearities, how they manifest under various conditions, and whether they reflect a climate system driven by astronomical forcings, by internal
feedbacks, or by a combination of both... [We] suggest a robust alternative to prediction that is based on using integrated assessments within the framework of vulnerability studies... It is imperative that the Earth's climate system research community embraces this
nonlinear paradigm if we are to move forward in the assessment of the human influence on climate.»
Our atmosphere - ocean model shows that the freshwater spurs amplifying
feedbacks that would accelerate ice shelf and ice sheet mass loss, thus providing support for our assumption of a
nonlinear ice sheet response.
The technology innovation process is complex and
nonlinear; complex because it involves a range of actors and factors and
nonlinear because technology innovation occurs through multiple dynamic
feedbacks between the stages of the process.
I, like you, am very skeptical of any attempt to remove some particular «natural signal» from a coupled
nonlinear chaotic system with gazillions of
feedbacks known and unknown and (mostly) transient, fluctuations that happened to nucleate at some particular point and grow.
The heartbeat, as mentioned initially, is also a
nonlinear oscillator — it is driven by very strong positive
feedbacks, with the result that the emergent oscillation is regular and monotonic, and with strong amplitude.
The nemesis of inductive reasoning is the prevalence in the real world of chaotic
nonlinear and nonequilibrium pattern due to complexity and the universality of
feedbacks.
Wojick: «You have left out that the system is chaotic, hence subject to strong
nonlinear negative
feedbacks (which are required for chaotic behavior).»
You have left out that the system is chaotic, hence subject to strong
nonlinear negative
feedbacks (which are required for chaotic behavior).
The issue of
feedbacks is raised but trying to understand
feedbacks in climate without a framework of a
nonlinear / nonequilibrium dynamic system is like trying to understand chemistry without the periodic table.
The heart - beat is an example is a
nonlinear oscillation driven be strong positive
feedbacks, the result is a regular simple oscillation.
Conversely negative
feedback constitutes damping and introduces complexity to the
nonlinear oscillation.
So they assume a strongly
nonlinear negative
feedback, essentially cut off at a certain amplitude.
This is a
nonlinear part of the transient response that is fooling those getting ECS from short records because they are not factoring in the eventual catch - up of tropical ocean response and its water vapor
feedback.
Water vapor is much more
nonlinear than CO2, so missing the initial conditions blows that approximation out of the water:) So «sensitivity» is much more sensitive than the no
feedback «sensitivity».
You'll find that you're confusing
feedback with
nonlinear response characteristic, such as a snowball growing as it rolls downslope — until it runs out of slope.
Aires, F., and W.B. Rossow, 2003: Inferring instantaneous, multivariate and
nonlinear sensitivities for the analysis of
feedback processes in a dynamical system: The Lorenz model case study.
Nonlinear interactions between the climate and biogeochemical systems could amplify (positive
feedbacks) or attenuate (negative
feedbacks) the disturbances produced by human activities.
It is my opinion, based on my familiarity with
nonlinear dynamical systems and with the physics driving these mechanisms, that temperature increases of this magnitude will not stabilize at these levels as the
feedbacks kick in.
Levermann et al. (9) focus their TE discussion of the relevant monsoon dynamics on
nonlinear moisture advection
feedback processes.