In particular, he explained the bias dependency on the lead time, also known as drift, and distinguished between two approaches for bias adjustment (and
not bias correction): a non-parametric, consisting in adjusting each forecast time separately, and a parametric approach, where a function to adjust different forecast times at once is used.
Not exact matches
Although the bullish
bias of the past two months has presented some great opportunities for momentum swing traders, no bull market moves straight up without eventually undergoing substantial
corrections along the way (just as bear markets don't fall straight down for too long without large, counter-trend bounces).
«Given the position
bias for flattening, periodic steepening
corrections should be expected but don't signal a change in view, but rather a case of ringing the register after which there will attempts to justify the price action with something more cerebral until we revert to flattening.»
With so many media - savy fundies predicting the crash and all their ego - massaging confirmation
bias articles and neatly chosen «expert opinions», we may
not get more than a handful of 10 %
corrections for another decade and every time they happen, we will be told the sky is falling!
Among them are that it is
not collected in the same way from state to state; misses center - based programs that fall outside the licensed provider network; does
not incorporate
corrections for sample
bias; and, most critically, does
not incorporate information from individual families on their daycare and preschool expenses.
I don't understand the context here or why a
bias correction would work this way.
For the calculated global warming it doesn't matter if you apply the
correction to the ships or to the buoys, and the fact that ship intakes are warmer than the environment is irrelevant because of the
bias correction and conversion to anomalies.
HadSST3
not only greatly expands the amount of raw data processed, it makes some important improvements in how the uncertainties are dealt with and has a more Bayesian probabilistic treatment of the necessary
bias corrections.
Specifically, Watts did
not apply a time of observation
bias correction according to Howard Universitychemistry professor Josh Halpern, who blogs under the pseudonym Eli Rabett.
It clearly is a positive development to have your careful work acknowledged by the authors: however, although they did make a few
corrections, they did
not admit to what to me is to me the most important point — your paper's estimate was
not biased low.
I am
not competent to judge the correctness of the HadSST3
bias corrections: That is a discussion which will take place in the peer - reviewed literature over the next few years.
As a result, their «urbanization
bias - corrected» global temperature trend estimates was pretty much the same as the estimates of the other groups who didn't apply any urbanization
bias corrections (you can see this by looking back at Figure 1, at the start of the essay).
``... since uncertainty is a structural component of climate and hydrological systems, Anagnostopoulos et al. (2010) found that large uncertainties and poor skill were shown by GCM predictions without
bias correction... it can
not be addressed through increased model complexity....
If the TOBS error introduces enough uncertainty, then a trend may
not be statistically significant, even if there is a
bias correction.
Hence, if you do
not correct for this
bias, there will be a cool
bias, relative to what would be the case where this
correction applied.
The ICESat
bias corrections used by the Zwally team were appropriate for measuring sea ice, but
not for measuring high altitude land - base ice sheets like found in Antarctica (the values returned for Lake Vostok alone were so unphysical that they should have made the entire study DOA) 2.
But what is being done now is
not dishonest (as Steve so often implies), but an honest attempt to create a
bias correction.
The also say that: «When we do
not adjust NMAT as discussed in section 2, our computed 1854 - 1941
bias correction is about constant».
This test does
not prove anything except that you have made significant structural changes to the climate data in applying the
bias correction (irrespective of whether it is a good or bad one).
The other quote «When we do
not adjust NMAT as discussed in section 2, our computed 1854 - 1941
bias correction is about constant» is interesting and perhaps more interesting again in full:
And often
corrections can
not be made until many, many years later because you need lots of data before you can spot changes in
bias.
If some
corrections to the data are necessary, there is a need for systems to make these
corrections in a way that does
not introduce more
bias than they remove.
It has been suggested that the absolute calibration of the m - cresol purple pH method may be slightly
biased such that a +0.0047
correction to measured pH values is necessary (DelValls & Dickson 1998); we did
NOT apply this
correction factor to our pH measurements.»
However, as outlined by Bengtsson et al. (2004) and others (see IPCC AR4 Chapter by Trenberth), reanalysis datasets are
not typically employed for climate change studies without considerable
bias correction, and that is a difficult proposition in itself.
This circuit illustrates a much more accurate picture of reality in that it includes terms such as
bias current, offset current, and offset voltage, and this equation is the corrected equation for the operation of the circuit (this equation is still missing two of the larger
corrections, input and output resistance, because I didn't want to re-derive the equations — it gets really tedious really fast).
After the average field is constructed, it is possible to create a set of estimated
bias corrections that suggest what the weather station might have reported had apparent
biasing events
not occurred.
The other members of the court (Simmons J.A. and Cronk J.A.) in separate concurring reasons, did
not frame the proposition as broadly and cautioned that the jurisdiction to effect error
correction will be precluded where it is tantamount to a reconsideration of the verdict or sentence or where issues of unfairness or injustice to the accused or reasonable apprehension of
bias arise: (per Cronk J.A. at para. 60).
This method equalizes the backgrounds of Type I and Type II probes prior to normalization, and includes between - array normalization of Type I and Type II probes separately but does
not perform dye
bias correction.
Given the low number of fathers (
n = 25) of 10 - years old girls responding via the Internet leading to increased risk for
bias, presence of extreme values in the scores that violates the assumptions in the parametric analyses, and the fact that this finding would
not remain after
correction for multiple comparisons, all data were combined.