The rise in temperatures along the U.S. West Coast during the past century is almost entirely the result of natural forces —
not human emissions of greenhouse gases, according to a major new study released today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Not exact matches
The ability
of the oceans to take up carbon dioxide can
not keep up with the rising levels
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which means carbon dioxide and global temperatures will continue to increase unless
humans cut their carbon dioxide
emissions.
That has squeezed out the Quino checkerspot butterfly's habitat, and with the climate changes coming as a result
of human greenhouse gas emissions, its listing as an endangered species by the U.S. government may
not be enough to save the pretty little butterfly from extinction.
Global warming became big news for the first time during the hot summer
of 1988 when now - retired NASA climate scientist James Hansen testified before Congress that the trend was
not part
of natural climate variation, but rather the result
of emissions of CO2 and other
greenhouse gasses from
human activities.
«In the face
of natural variability and complexity, the consequences
of change in any single factor, for example
greenhouse gas emissions, can
not readily be isolated, and prediction becomes difficult... Scientific uncertainties continue to limit our ability to make objective, quantitative determinations regarding the
human role in recent climate change, or the degree and consequence
of future change.»
One will represent conditions and «possible weather» in the winter 2014, and the second will represent the weather in a «world that might have been» if
human behaviour had
not changed the composition
of the atmosphere through
greenhouse gas emissions.
But President Bush's announcement Wednesday
of a plan to halt growth in U.S.
greenhouse gas emissions by 2025, while
not embracing all the enviro groups want, legitimizes their argument that global warming is caused by
humans and an imminent threat to mankind.
By the way, I'd just like to mention that I am far happier to be arguing about the comparative benefits
of nuclear power, wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, conservation, efficiency, reforestation, organic agriculture, etc. for quickly reducing CO2
emissions and concentrations, than to be engaged in yet another argument with someone who doesn't believe that CO2 is a
greenhouse gas, or that
human activities are
not causing warming, or that the Earth is cooling, or thinks that AGW is a «liberal» conspiracy to destroy capitalism, etc..
The article you linked to at Then There's Physics states «We probably have
not been able to definitively demonstrate that the rising cost
of weather disasters can be formally attributed to the
human emission of greenhouse gases.
Terrell Johnson, reporting on a recent NASA publication concluding that deep ocean temperatures have
not increased since 2005 (http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/deep-ocean-hasnt-warmed-nasa-20141007): «While the report's authors say the findings do
not question the overall science
of climate change, it is the latest in a series
of findings that show global warming to have slowed considerably during the 21st century, despite continued rapid growth in
human - produced
greenhouse gas emissions during the same time.»
But temperatures are running so far ahead
of those during the last strong El Niño, in 1997 and 1998, that scientists said the records would
not be occurring without an underlying trend caused by
human emissions of greenhouse gases.
To argue, or even suggest, that [
human action, including alterations in landscapes and
emissions of greenhouse gases] «can»» or even doesn't, or even «may
not» affect climate is in essence to argue against the very basic
of geophysics and chemistry itself.
University
of Florida researcher Edward Schuur says he doesn't expect permafrost
greenhouse gas emission to trump anthropogenic (
human - caused)
greenhouse gas emissions anytime soon, however they could become «an important amplifier
of climate change.»
Come the cold season, whenever there is some type
of strong storm system near the U.S. Eastern Seaboard — be it a Nor» easter, a blizzard, or ex-hurricane Sandy — you don't have to look very hard to find someone who will tell you that this weather is «consistent with» expectations
of climate change resulting from
human greenhouse gas emissions.
If
humans don't act to reduce their
emissions of greenhouse gases, Gore contends, the deaths caused by climate change will double in 25 years to 300,000 people a year, and more than a million species worldwide could be driven to extinction in half a century.
On the other hand, despite the overwhelming evidence that global warming will transform the Earth's climate for centuries, with fearful consequences for
human health and wellbeing (
not to mention the survival
of many species and ecosystems), the world can
not agree to significant reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions because
of concerns about the effects on economic growth.
If the null is that
human effects are real and significant, and if that hypothesis can
not be falsified, the implication is that we should make a serious effort to blunt the magnitude and impact
of our
greenhouse gas emissions.
[3] Despite evidence and climate literature to the contrary, [4] the EPA concluded that manmade
greenhouse gas emissions are a threat to
human health and public welfare,
not because
of any direct adverse health impacts but because
of their contributions to climate change.
Maybe you don't know much about the sum
of radiative forcings, or findings from paleoclimate, that allow climatologists to calculate that
human emissions of greenhouse gases are responsible for 100 + %
of recent warming, but that doesn't mean nobody does.
Later studies suggested that along with overgrazing,
human emissions,
not only
of greenhouse gases but also
of industrial haze, had caused changes in weather patterns that contributed to the disaster.)
Climate models are
not designed to capture record daily highs and lows with precision, and it remains impossible to know future
human actions that will determine the level
of future
greenhouse gas emissions.
Monsieur Joggles, methane
emission from the arctic can
not be stopped, but they can be reduced by stopping, or failing that greatly limiting,
human emissions of greenhouse gases.
In 1995 the coalition's own scientists reported that «the scientific basis for the
Greenhouse Effect and the potential impact of human emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well established and can not be deni
Greenhouse Effect and the potential impact
of human emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well established and can not be deni
greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well established and can
not be denied.»
One
of the problems with the EPA's Endangerment TSD is the nearly complete disregard
of observed trends in a wide array
of measures which by and large show that despite decades
of increasing anthropogenic
greenhouse gas emissions the U.S. population does
not seem to have been adversely affected by any vulnerabilities, risks, and impacts that may have arisen (to the extent that any at all have actually occurred as the result
of any
human - induced climate changes).
Second, I agree completely that direct
human emissions of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases do
not directly heat the earth by the amount that climate models project.
According to Dr Brekke, this time period coincides
not only with an increase in
human - caused
greenhouse gas emissions, but also with a higher level
of solar activity, which makes it complicated to separate the effects
of these two phenomena.
The experts say their research DOES
NOT UNDERMINE THE SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS THAT
EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES FROM
HUMAN ACTIVITY DRIVE GLOBAL WARMING, BUT THEY CALL FOR A CLOSER EXAMINATION
OF THE WAY CLIMATE COMPUTER MODELS CONSIDER WATER VAPOUR.
The scientific basis for the
Greenhouse Gas Effect and the potential impact of human emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 is well established and can not
Greenhouse Gas Effect and the potential impact
of human emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 is well established and can not
greenhouse gases such as CO2 is well established and can
not be denied.
Another key point Boutrous made was that these
human - sourced
greenhouse gas emissions are due to growing wealth and development,
of which fossil fuel combustion is a symptom,
not a cause.
As the majority
of scientists are now coming to believe, new research from Humlum et al. determines that indeed
human CO2
emissions and other
greenhouse gases are
not the primary cause
of global warming.
Humans will have to
not only stop emitting
greenhouse gases by 2085, but also develop technology that will result in negative
emissions — the removal
of 15 billion tons
of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere each year by the end
of the century — in order to prevent global warming from exceeding 2 °C (3.6 °F), according to a new study.
This is so because in addition to the theological reasons given by Pope Francis recently: (a) it is a problem mostly caused by some nations and people emitting high - levels
of greenhouse gases (ghg) in one part
of the world who are harming or threatening tens
of millions
of living people and countless numbers
of future generations throughout the world who include some
of the world's poorest people who have done little to cause the problem, (b) the harms to many
of the world's most vulnerable victims
of climate change are potentially catastrophic, (c) many people most at risk from climate change often can't protect themselves by petitioning their governments; their best hope is that those causing the problem will see that justice requires them to greatly lower their ghg
emissions, (d) to protect the world's most vulnerable people nations must limit their ghg
emissions to levels that constitute their fair share
of safe global
emissions, and, (e) climate change is preventing some people from enjoying the most basic
human rights including rights to life and security among others.
Climate modelers are scrambling to try to save their creations» reputations because the one thing that they do
not want to have to admit is that they exaggerate the amount that the earth's average temperature will increase as a result
of human greenhouse gas emissions.
This is so because: (a) it is a problem mostly caused by some nations and people emitting high - levels
of greenhouse gases (ghg) in one part
of the world who are harming or threatening tens
of millions
of living people and countless numbers
of future generations throughout the world who include some
of the world's poorest people who have done little to cause the problem, (b) the harms to many
of the world's most vulnerable victims
of climate change are potentially catastrophic, (c) many people most at risk from climate change often can't protect themselves by petitioning their governments; their best hope is that those causing the problem will see that justice requires them to greatly lower their ghg
emissions, (d) to protect the world's most vulnerable people nations must limit their ghg
emissions to levels that constitute their fair share
of safe global
emissions, and, (e) climate change is preventing some people from enjoying the most basic
human rights including rights to life and security among others.
So we have a situation in which the latest science on two key issues: how much the earth will warm as a result
of human greenhouse gas emissions, and how well climate models perform in projecting the warming, is largely
not incorporated into the new IPCC report.
Coleman went on to add that he based most
of his views on the findings
of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), an international body that says «because it is
not a government agency, and because its members are
not predisposed to believe climate change is caused by
human greenhouse gas emissions, NIPCC is able to offer an independent «second opinion»
of the evidence reviewed - or
not reviewed - by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the issue
of global warming.»
Awareness
of the scientific consensus on
human - caused global warming is a key factor in peoples» decisions whether or
not to support action to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.
Because it has been scientifically well established that there is a great risk
of catastrophic harm from
human - induced change (even though it is acknowledged that there are remaining uncertainties about timing and magnitude
of climate change impacts), no high - emitting nation, sub-national government, organization, business, or individual
of greenhouse gases may use some remaining scientific uncertainty about climate change impacts as an excuse for
not reducing its
emissions to its fair share
of safe global
greenhouse gas emission on the basis
of scientific uncertainty.
«Climate science» as it is used by warmists implies adherence to a set
of beliefs: (1) Increasing
greenhouse gas concentrations will warm the Earth's surface and atmosphere; (2)
Human production
of CO2 is producing significant increases in CO2 concentration; (3) The rate
of rise
of temperature in the 20th and 21st centuries is unprecedented compared to the rates
of change
of temperature in the previous two millennia and this can only be due to rising
greenhouse gas concentrations; (4) The climate
of the 19th century was ideal and may be taken as a standard to compare against any current climate; (5) global climate models, while still
not perfect, are good enough to indicate that continued use
of fossil fuels at projected rates in the 21st century will cause the CO2 concentration to rise to a high level by 2100 (possibly 700 to 900 ppm); (6) The global average temperature under this condition will rise more than 3 °C from the late 19th century ideal; (7) The negative impact on humanity
of such a rise will be enormous; (8) The only alternative to such a disaster is to immediately and sharply reduce CO2
emissions (reducing
emissions in 2050 by 80 % compared to today's rate) and continue further reductions after 2050; (9) Even with such draconian CO2 reductions, the CO2 concentration is likely to reach at least 450 to 500 ppm by 2100 resulting in significant damage to humanity; (10) Such reductions in CO2
emissions are technically feasible and economically affordable while providing adequate energy to a growing world population that is increasingly industrializing.
«This central truth must be stated without equivocation: control
of the
emission of human - induced
greenhouse gases will
not halt climate change.
The claim is often made that climate realists (a.k.a. skeptics) can
not point to peer - reviewed papers to support their position that there is no evidence
of «dangerous global warming:» caused by
human emissions of so - called «
greenhouse»
gases, including carbon dioxide.
While the GCC distributed a «backgrounder» to politicians and media in the early 1990s claiming «The role
of greenhouse gases in climate change is not well understood,» a 1995 GCC internal memo drafted by Mobil Oil (which merged with Exxon in 1998) stated that: «The scientific basis for the Greenhouse Effect and the potential impact of human emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well established and can not be deni
greenhouse gases in climate change is
not well understood,» a 1995 GCC internal memo drafted by Mobil Oil (which merged with Exxon in 1998) stated that: «The scientific basis for the
Greenhouse Effect and the potential impact of human emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well established and can not be deni
Greenhouse Effect and the potential impact
of human emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well established and can not be deni
greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well established and can
not be denied.»
Now, new research in Nature Climate Change [1]
not only reinforces the reality
of this trend — which is already provoking debate about the overall climate consequences
of a warming Arctic — but statistically attributes it to
human causes, which largely means
greenhouse gas emissions (albeit with a mix
of other elements as well)
Climate realists, those
of us who do
not support the hypothesis that
greenhouse gas emissions from
human activities are causing a climate crisis, have certainly been pleased.
The role
of greenhouse gasses in climate change ARE
NOT well understood, even if the POTENTIAL impact
of human emissions has been documented.
[PRIVATE, 1995] «The scientific basis for the
Greenhouse Effect and the potential impact of human emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well established and can not be denied,» the experts wrote in an internal report compiled for the coalitio
Greenhouse Effect and the potential impact
of human emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well established and can not be denied,» the experts wrote in an internal report compiled for the coalitio
greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well established and can
not be denied,» the experts wrote in an internal report compiled for the coalition in 1995.
[Review, 1995] «The scientific basis for the
Greenhouse Effect and the potential impact of human emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well established and can not be denied,» the experts wrote in an internal report compiled for the coalitio
Greenhouse Effect and the potential impact
of human emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well established and can not be denied,» the experts wrote in an internal report compiled for the coalitio
greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well established and can
not be denied,» the experts wrote in an internal report compiled for the coalition in 1995.
So, the concern is
not with the fact that we have a
greenhouse effect, but whether
human activities are leading to an enhancement
of the
greenhouse effect by the
emission of greenhouse gases through fossil fuel combustion and deforestation.
RE: The Over-whelming scientific Consensus on man - made CO2 caused Global - warming - 97 %
of the climate scientists surveyed believe «global aver temps have increased» during the past century [So do I]-- Your quotes: How «significant it is that 84 %
of climate scientists have reached a «consensus» that «
human - induced warming is occurring» «--RCB- 84 % «personally believe» [implies they may
NOT have actually studied this topic — IE: may
NOT be experts on this particular matter]
human - induced warming is occurring -LCB--... — «In 1991 only 41 %
of climate scientists were very confident that industrial
emissions of greenhouse gases were responsible for climate disruption.
In reality, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have been the three warmest years on record
not because
of a large El Niño, but because
of a long - term warming trend driven by
human emissions of greenhouse gases.