Sentences with phrase «not individual model runs»

Hence, while I personally would have preferred to have just the overlaid ranges and not individual model runs plotted there, I'm not surprised that AR5 spent very little time and graph space on the previous reports.

Not exact matches

This is an incredibly difficult question to answer for a variety of reasons, most importantly because over the years our once vaunted «beautiful» style of play has become a shadow of it's former self, only to be replaced by a less than stellar «plug and play» mentality where players play out of position and adjustments / substitutions are rarely forthcoming before the 75th minute... if you look at our current players, very few would make sense in the traditional Wengerian system... at present, we don't have the personnel to move the ball quickly from deep - lying position, efficient one touch midfielders that can make the necessary through balls or the disciplined and pacey forwards to stretch defences into wide positions, without the aid of the backs coming up into the final 3rd, so that we can attack the defensive lanes in the same clinical fashion we did years ago... on this current squad, we have only 1 central defender on staf, Mustafi, who seems to have any prowess in the offensive zone or who can even pass two zones through so that we can advance play quickly out of our own end (I have seen some inklings that suggest Holding might have some offensive qualities but too early to tell)... unfortunately Mustafi has a tendency to get himself in trouble when he gets overly aggressive on the ball... from our backs out wide, we've seen pace from the likes of Bellerin and Gibbs and the spirited albeit offensively stunted play of Monreal, but none of these players possess the skill - set required in the offensive zone for the new Wenger scheme which requires deft touches, timely runs to the baseline and consistent crossing, especially when Giroud was playing and his ratio of scored goals per clear chances was relatively low (better last year though)... obviously I like Bellerin's future prospects, as you can't teach pace, but I do worry that he regressed last season, which was obvious to Wenger because there was no way he would have used Ox as the right side wing - back so often knowing that Barcelona could come calling in the off - season, if he thought otherwise... as for our midfielders, not a single one, minus the more confident Xhaka I watched played for the Swiss national team a couple years ago, who truly makes sense under the traditional Wenger model... Ramsey holds onto the ball too long, gives the ball away cheaply far too often and abandons his defensive responsibilities on a regular basis (doesn't score enough recently to justify): that being said, I've always thought he does possess a little something special, unfortunately he thinks so too... Xhaka is a little too slow to ever boss the midfield and he tends to telegraph his one true strength, his long ball play: although I must admit he did get a bit better during some points in the latter part of last season... it always made me wonder why whenever he played with Coq Wenger always seemed to play Francis in a more advanced role on the pitch... as for Coq, he is way too reckless at the wrong times and has exhibited little offensive prowess yet finds himself in and around the box far too often... let's face it Wenger was ready to throw him in the trash heap when injuries forced him to use Francis and then he had the nerve to act like this was all part of a bigger Wenger constructed plan... he like Ramsey, Xhaka and Elneny don't offer the skills necessary to satisfy the quick transitory nature of our old offensive scheme or the stout defensive mindset needed to protect the defensive zone so that our offensive players can remain aggressive in the final third... on the front end, we have Ozil, a player of immense skill but stunted by his physical demeanor that tends to offend, the fact that he's been played out of position far too many times since arriving and that the players in front of him, minus Sanchez, make little to no sense considering what he has to offer (especially Giroud); just think about the quick counter-attack offence in Real or the space and protection he receives in the German National team's midfield, where teams couldn't afford to focus too heavily on one individual... this player was a passing «specialist» long before he arrived in North London, so only an arrogant or ignorant individual would try to reinvent the wheel and / or not surround such a talent with the necessary components... in regards to Ox, Walcott and Welbeck, although they all possess serious talents I see them in large part as headless chickens who are on the injury table too much, lack the necessary first - touch and / or lack the finishing flair to warrant their inclusion in a regular starting eleven; I would say that, of the 3, Ox showed the most upside once we went to a back 3, but even he became a bit too consumed by his pending contract talks before the season ended and that concerned me a bit... if I had to choose one of those 3 players to stay on it would be Ox due to his potential as a plausible alternative to Bellerin in that wing - back position should we continue to use that formation... in Sanchez, we get one of the most committed skill players we've seen on this squad for some years but that could all change soon, if it hasn't already of course... strangely enough, even he doesn't make sense given the constructs of the original Wenger offensive model because he holds onto the ball too long and he will give the ball up a little too often in the offensive zone... a fact that is largely forgotten due to his infectious energy and the fact that the numbers he has achieved seem to justify the means... finally, and in many ways most crucially, Giroud, there is nothing about this team or the offensive system that Wenger has traditionally employed that would even suggest such a player would make sense as a starter... too slow, too inefficient and way too easily dispossessed... once again, I think he has some special skills and, at times, has showed some world - class qualities but he's lack of mobility is an albatross around the necks of our offence... so when you ask who would be our best starting 11, I don't have a clue because of the 5 or 6 players that truly deserve a place in this side, 1 just arrived, 3 aren't under contract beyond 2018 and the other was just sold to Juve... man, this is theraputic because following this team is like an addiction to heroin without the benefits

Compare this model with that of the current government, whereby we have an unelected body of wealthy individuals, laden with conflicts of interest running the country and forcing through policies made up in a closed room that not one member of the electorate has had an opportunity to vote on.

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The argument at its simplest is that since there are individual model runs in the CCSM4 ensemble that are just about as bad as our current reality, we can't rule out the chance that reality will return to the CCSM4 ensemble line — i.e. the decline will slow, and the Arctic will be summer ice - free in «only» 2040 - 2050 or so.

That is because individual model runs will show El Nino events, but will not show them in the same years.

Another point: — it's clear that an individual models separate runs can generate many different potential futures, so that you wouldn't necessarily expect the mean to match the actual mean of the individual future of the observations if the variance of the simulations was wide.

One of the consequences is that if you run multiple computer simulations of earth's climate, then average the results, the simulated ENSO events get scattered throughout time and end up being averaged out, so that the model average ends up looking like it doesn't have a strong ENSO impact even though the individual model runs do.

«In response to those who complained in my recent post that linear trends are not a good way to compare the models to observations (even though the modelers have claimed that it's the long - term behavior of the models we should focus on, not individual years), here are running 5 - year averages for the tropical tropospheric temperature, models versus observations...»

If you look at the lower two images of the second column of our AGU poster, the proper question is not whether the observed sequence lies with the envelope of the variability from all model runs (which is what IPCC AR5 Figure 1.4 and Nuccitelli's analysis gets at), it is whether the trend through the observed sequence can be found in any of the individual model runs (which is what IPCC AR5 Box9.2 Figure1a as well as the top figures in column 2 of our poster gets at).

So, not only anaomolies are used but there is a basic assumption that the mean of the models has cancelled out certain errors of the individual models and runs.

My analysis was not intended to shed any light on the validity of the methods and data used in Marvel — as that task has been carried out and articulated well at these blogs by Nic Lewis — but rather to look at the individual model runs in more detail and determine if the run differences could be reason for questioning the differences in efficacies arrived at in Marvel.

Either an individual model run represents a possible earth, or it doesn't.

Ross: an anonymous commenter comes along saying that coefficients estimated on observed data can not be compared to ensemble means, instead they must be compared to individual model runs

The model outputs are generally presented as an average of an ensemble of individual runs (and even ensembles of individual runs from multiple models), in order to remove this variability from the overall picture, because among grownups it is understood that 1) the long term trends are what we're interested and 2) the coarseness of our measurements of initial conditions combined with a finite modeled grid size means that models can not predict precisely when and how temps will vary around a trend in the real world (they can, however, by being run many times, give us a good idea of the * magnitude * of that variance, including how many years of flat or declining temperatures we might expect to see pop up from time to time).