Yield spreads over Treasuries are not a good way to define value in bonds, and particularly
not junk bonds.
Most bonds (
not junk bonds) represent a less risky investment than most stocks, which means that stocks have to offer a higher return as a premium for increased risk.
Most bonds (
not junk bonds) represent a less risky investment than most stocks, which means that stocks have to offer a higher return as a premium for increased risk.
Not exact matches
Although there may
not be a
bond bubble, with investors starved for yield, Gundlach predicts a potential bubble could form in credit risk as investors increase their leverage on riskier debt securities like
junk bonds and emerging market debt.
The paper finds that
junk bonds are, in fact, a very good indicator for forecasting economic peaks if
not troughs, effectively warning ahead of eight of the last ten peaks in the business cycle.
Markets are fine, volatility is modest and trade war isn't a big deal, say delegates at
junk -
bond king Michael Milken's annual L.A. summit.
And while bubbles may yet emerge, by their very nature they're likely to be found somewhere entirely unexpected —
not a closely watched, highly liquid market like the $ 1.3 trillion United States
junk bond market.
While
junk bonds may
not represent a systemic risk as credit derivatives did during the financial crisis, they can be one of the more effective leading economic indicators.
The NY Times aptly reflects the consensus view that there has really been no, «rout,» in the market for
junk bonds and that they don't signal anything more serious for other markets or the economy, as they don't represent a, «systemic risk.»
If a
junk bond defaults, you might
not even get your initial investment back.
When people see banks browbeating the
bond rating agencies and accounting firms to whitewash the quality of what they're pawning off on their customers, when they see bank lobbyists getting Washington to block state prosecutions of financial fraud so as to clear the way for more predatory lending and false packaging of the
junk securities they're selling and to win the right
not to reveal their true financial position, there's a good reason
not to buy what's in these black boxes.
Junk - bond ETFs rallied on Wednesday, as markets breathed relief that the «fiscal cliff» is no longer a concern and as a result, bond yields are under 6 percent for the first time ever, and junk ETF share prices hit levels not seen in years in some cases, according to an article on ETF Tre
Junk -
bond ETFs rallied on Wednesday, as markets breathed relief that the «fiscal cliff» is no longer a concern and as a result,
bond yields are under 6 percent for the first time ever, and
junk ETF share prices hit levels not seen in years in some cases, according to an article on ETF Tre
junk ETF share prices hit levels
not seen in years in some cases, according to an article on ETF Trends.
Not so much
junk bonds, just
junk.
This event didn't seem to infect the
junk bond market until early July 2014.
With the current capital markets having been flooded with Fed, Bank of Japan and ECB money printing, I'm
not sure the
junk bond market will act as a warning beacon this time around.
There are a couple of interesting options possibilities on JNK and HYG such as bearish verticals if we accept that
junk bonds will
not be going even higher in the next year or two.
For example, it does
not include euro
bonds («reverse Yankees») that are hot in Europe, where
junk bond yields are at a ludicrously low 2.35 % on average, and the high - grade yield is just above zero.
On the other end of the scale, Schwab will only let you search investment grade
bonds online (you must call the
bond desk to trade
junk), will only let you buy online (you must call to sell), and does
not allow limit orders at all.
For example, Fidelity will allow you to search both investment grade and
junk bonds, show you the number of
bonds available at both the bid and ask price, and will even allow you to submit a limit order (although you can
not put in a good until cancelled order or one that is more than a small amount away from the current bid / ask).
Junk bonds, for instance, are producing a less than pulse - quickening yield of 6 % which, adjusted for defaults (likely to explode during the next recession), isn't worth the risk — save in a few special situations.
Further, with
junk grade defaults at negligible levels today, even higher risk
bonds have
not posed significant problems — although that does
not always have to be the case.
Deutsche projects a substantial but
not crippling 23 % decrease in
junk -
bond issuance across all developed markets this year, to $ 210 billion.
The current retraction won't reach its nadir of 10 %
junk -
bond defaults and virtually closed markets until 2018, Fridson predicts.
It may be somewhat useful to make comparisons to that period of time to see how certain interest rate sensitive asset classes such as
junk bonds, REITs, dividend - paying stocks or
bonds performed, but my guess is that particular environment doesn't do a great job of showing investors what a typical rising rate scenario would look like (assuming there is such a thing).
What we're seeing here — make no mistake about it — is
not a rational, justified, quantifiable response to lower interest rates, but rather a historic compression of risk premiums across every risky asset class, particularly equities, leveraged loans, and
junk bonds.
The 500 - room Westin was built in 2007, but it hasn't met revenue projects over the last decade, and in 2014, Standard & Poor's downgraded the village to
junk -
bond status based mostly on the financial mismanagement of the hotel.
A partial but
not complete list of worries includes: China melt down, Yuan reevaluation after effects or Taiwan action, global biomedical epidemics, e.g. Avian Flu, or bioterrorism outbreaks, trade wars (China, EU), major hedge fund bankruptcies, a PBGC (Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.) shortfall crisis, major
junk bond or emerging market
bond default, a bank derivative blowup, Fannie Mae issues plus possible assorted natural disasters.
I have underlined several times that while we did see volatility in the equity market in Q1» 18, the
bond market was numb to any market movements; while Treasuries were falling,
junk bonds didn't widen much compared to how they were trading at the beginning of the year.
The striking similarities between insolvent Puerto Rico and the Land of Lincoln serve as a dire warning: Without real reforms, Illinois won't be able to shake off an eventual
junk bond rating or get off the path to financial ruin.
There are other examples of speculation such as some European
junk bonds trading at yields so low that no company should ever have to suffer the indignity of bankruptcy but for pure entertainment value you can't beat Jesus coin.
We mention in the book that timing the lower volatility
bonds does
not make a lot of difference (higher vol
bonds like corporates, emerging, and
junk work well however).
For example, in a world where short - term interest rates are zero, Wall Street acts as if a 2 % dividend yield on equities, or a 5 %
junk bond yield is enough to make these securities appropriate even for investors with short horizons,
not factoring in any compensation for risk or likely capital losses.
Investors» warm reception for this week's $ 3.5 bln issue looks strange given the island's
junk rating and rocky finances,
not to mention that existing
bonds trade at a big discount.
The idea of debt amnesties was to prevent debt from tearing society apart — to prevent the kind of crisis that the United States has been in since 2008, when President Obama didn't cancel the
junk -
bond debts, or the debts that tore the Greek economy apart — when the IMF and Europe imposed them on Greece instead of letting it default on debts owed to French and German bondholders.
Time was
not on our side — after being cash flow positive for almost a decade we had been hit hard by the
junk bond credit crisis that started in mid 1990.
Currently, I am
not invested in
junk bonds.
You say the coupon is 4 % or so which I think is a fair statement, but surely the yield to maturity must be much lower, 1.5 - 2 % assuming you aren't buying 30 + year
bonds or
junk paper?
These include limiting the number of
junk bonds that can be acquired by federal - and state - insured institutions, and specifying to company directors and officers that achieving the best short - term investment returns is
not their main fiduciary responsibility.
«I don't want to alarm anyone, but I think it's safe to say that we should see this as a $ 3 billion budget deficit... The state of California has had to pass out IOUs, which has reduced their credit rating to Triple - B, which is one status above
junk bond.
After the drop to
junk bond status, he said he had taken steps to address the town's fiscal problems, but «it wasn't enough.»
Also, for
junk bonds you HAVE to diversify quite a lot, because the reward for the extra risk is only for the part of the risk that can
not be diversified away.
That said, the investment grade corporate
bond market, the
junk bond market, and the bank loan markets can't have a better year in 2010.
However, many experts feel yields on «
junk bonds» don't justify the risk at this time.
Starting in 2008 and into 2009, high yield corporate
bonds (otherwise known as
junk bonds) saw huge drops in price under the premise the America was going to see a massive wave of corporate defaults, the likes of which we hadn't seen since the Great Depression.
However, the interest rate isn't necessarily the same thing as some
bonds may have higher yields do to the potential for defaults like
junk bonds for example.
So if a company is drowning in debt and has little capacity to pay it back, its
bonds will get a
junk rating and they won't make into indexes that hold only investment - grade issues.
A fund with this exposure can certainly lose money during a 2008 - type crisis because of liquidity concerns, but it won't suffer anything like the carnage we saw with
junk bonds.
It doesn't matter if you measure risk by standard deviation of returns, beta, or credit rating (with
junk bonds).
The optimal outcome is that you get paid principal & interest to the stated maturity from this
bond that is deep in
junk territory, CCC + / Caa1 - rated, where the proceeds of the deal don't increase the value of the firm, but are paid as a dividend to the equity holders.
@Jerry, I agree that today the main risk in
bonds is duration risk (AKA interest - rate risk)-- last weekend's Barron's has an interview with the UBS Wealth Management top managers pointing out this means convincing investors to switch from Treasuries and investment - grade corporates to well - selected
junk (HYLD is a jewel there — DO
N'T go for index funds in
bonds, very differently from ones in stocks they make no sense... where's the sense in wanting to lend more to companies which are more indebted?!