Not exact matches
Theologians get around this by watering down God's powers until they are no longer contradictory, but that is
loading the
dice, and it's
not how scripture has it.
Even if you don't own an Instant Pot, you can still make this hearty chili —
loaded with ground beef, beans,
diced tomatoes and fire roasted chiles — on the stove in half an hour.
According to a study by Education Datalab, the Kent Test, the entrance exam in Kent, was a «
loaded dice» against pupils on free school meals because they were
not coached for the test, unlike their wealthier peers.
Seems to me that if there's a high degree of certainty about
loaded rolls of the Wx
dice into the future, you can't dismiss out of hand, as he has, that said
loaded rolls of the
dice have been at least a qualitative factor in prior Wx extremes since the AGW signal appeared.
Fact is, at this point no weather is uninfluenced but no single event is «evidence» in a court of law sense; you can't isolate it but when a whole season is out of whack we're human and note it confirms the
loaded dice impression.
We don't know enough to quantify collapse scenarios accurately, but modern society is «
loading the
dice» towards the collapse of civilisation.
But if you were to roll a six using these
dice, you could
not blame it specifically on the fact that the
dice had been
loaded.
That doesn't mean these things won't happen — it could simply be coincidence with the
dice loaded against us — but every year that goes by without a trend makes that less and less likely; there are probably other physical processes working to counteract those we've identified.
That doesn't mean these extreme events won't happen more frequently — the
dice could be
loaded against us — but it doesn't give us any confidence to «know» that they will either.
The other thing he did
not talk about how we are in an interglacial period and how it might be a good idea to
load the
dice just incase cooling starts.
What I reacted to in Stefan's post is his claim that «basic physics» can still let you «know» something will occur when you don't see any trend at all (i.e., the
loaded dice example).
It is
not that the
dice are
loaded, it is that we are playing with more
dice.
With good physical reasons to expect the
dice are
loaded, we should
not fool ourselves with reassuring - looking but uninformative statistics.
You may well be right that many of the results we're seeing are because the
dice are currently
loaded against the science, but in my opinion, that kind of conclusion is simply
not scientific.
Again, some of these words are
not mine such as «
load the
dice».
[7] Kevin D. Dayaratna and David W. Kreutzer, «Unfounded FUND: Yet Another EPA Model
Not Ready for the Big Game,» Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 2897, April 29, 2014, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/04/unfounded-fund-yet-another-epa-model-
not-ready-for-the-big-game; Kevin D. Dayaratna and David W. Kreutzer, «
Loaded DICE: An EPA Model
Not Ready for the Big Game,» Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 2860, November 21, 2013, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/11/
loaded-
dice-an-epa-model-
not-ready-for-the-big-game; and U.S. Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon, «Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866,» The White House, July 2015, p. 18, https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/inforeg/scc-tsd-final-july-2015.pdf (accessed March 25, 2016).
He said: «Whether or
not a flood occurs in any given year is still an act of God but with the help of thousands of volunteers we are beginning to see how human influence on climate may be starting to
load God's
dice.»
Heavy snowstorms are
not inconsistent with a warming planet... In fact, as the Earth gets warmer and more moisture gets absorbed into the atmosphere, we are steadily
loading the
dice in favor of more extreme storms in all seasons, capable of causing greater impacts on society... If the climate continues to warm, we should expect an increase in heavy snow events for a few decades, until the climate grows so warm that we pass the point where it's too warm for it to snow heavily.
If a
loaded dice rolls a six, we can
not say that this particular outcome was due to the manipulation — the question is ill - posed.
Perhaps I'm biased because I'm a physicist
not a statistician, but to me it is clear that physical evidence, like our physical understanding of how CO2 affects SST and how SST affects hurricanes, gives you warning of the
loaded dice long before you can prove it from the damage statistics.
Perhaps this is too basic, but I can't see why discussing
loaded dice isn't «science» in terms of climate.
The
loading of the
dice in winter (Fig. 5, Middle), i.e., the shift to unusually warm seasons, is
not as great as in summer, despite the fact that observed warming in winter is larger than in summer (5).
Of course, if everybody knew that the
dice were
loaded, or that the medicines were diluted and the food contaminated, at the very least they would
not need to be told.