So why do
not other modelers tune theirs to achieve agreement with observations?
Not exact matches
The true challenge, should Chetty take it on, would be to put his model up against the
other VAMs mentioned above, using the same NYC school - level dataset, and prove to the public that his model is so «cutting - edge» that it does
not suffer from the serious issues with reliability, validity, bias, etc. with which all
other modelers are contending.
(1) In this case even if they were correct and the models failed to predict or match reality (which, acc to this post has
not been adequately established, bec we're still in overlapping data and model confidence intervals), it could just as well mean that AGW stands and the
modelers have failed to include some less well understood or unquantifiable earth system variable into the models, or there are
other unknowns within our weather / climate / earth systems, or some noise or choas or catastrophe (whose equation has
not been found yet) thing.
The climate
modeler, on the
other hand, is
not interested in the system's behaviour at a particular point in time.
Worse than that the climate
modelers aren't familiar with what's needed to «draw» an algoritm to be used in computer - systemprogramming...... Please let us know where they spent their days when
others listen to tutors and learnt.
I don't think they're any different than
modelers in
other fields.
Our models can become «seductive simulations,» as sociologist of science Myanna Lahsen put it, [3] with the
modelers,
other scientists, the public, and policymakers easily forgetting that the models are
not reality but must be tested by it.
Modelers want to hand wave over the big picture, and any time one points to the lack of tropical troposphere warming or any
other particular failure / discrepancy, it is like stepping in a fire ant
nest, you get swarmed and stung.
In this context, comfort is a form of «truthiness» that does
not translate into user confidence in the model,
other than via an appeal to the authority of the
modelers.
That we can't really model them, and maybe of most concern the way they'll interact with each
other, is unhelpful, especially since lots of
modelers seem to want to pretend they don't exist.
That said, I chose
not to investigate whether Caldeira or
other modelers had developed more refined models that called for more SO2 dumped into the stratosphere, as I didn't feel it was necessary to the point of my article.
On the
other hand, the results would be founded in observational facts and data, and would
not be nearly as subject to the whims and biases of an agendized clique of climate
modelers whose basic starting point is, and always will be, «Nothing else but C02 explains it.»
I think you make some statements here that are
not necessarily true, e.g. there is no «tunable average cloudiness parameter» AFAIK (but I'm
not a GCM
modeler, so there are
others better suited to comment on this than I am).