Regarding precession, it is
not precession per se but the modulation of precession that is the critical factor, that is, the oscillation in the amplitude of the precession peaks.
«That's clearly
not precession,» says astrophysicist David Merritt of Rutgers University in Piscataway, New Jersey.
Not exact matches
Upon learning about
precession, I realized that while building my business sometimes felt painful and confusing, each small step was taking me somewhere, even when I didn't feel like I had a clue where I was going.
What you espouse would be the equivalent of stating that we can't rely on the Earth rotating because of the existence of
precession.
Although the gravitational tugs of other planets account for most of Mercury's
precession, they don't account for all of it.
By assuming that the sun was spherical, Albert Einstein (father of the Theory of General Relativity) explained with precision a variation in the orbit of Mercury, the so - called
precession of the perihelion — a phenomenon that Newton's theory of gravity could
not explain.
Re 92 and 105: First I just want to reitterate more generally what 105 said — Milankovitch cycles have had climate signals, in ice ages or otherwise, — well probably ever since the Moon formed, although the signal from times past will
not always reach us, but I've read of evidence of Milankovitch
precession cycle forcing of monsoons in lakes in Pangea (PS over geologic time the periods of some of the Milankovitch cycles have changed as the Moon recedes from the Earth due to tides).
Citing a speech by a retired TV weatherman who could no more construct a climate model than a television camera, and the philosophical authority of one «Thomas Eddington» (the inventor of the supernova light bulb, perhaps — surely
not the Sir Arthur who confirmed the relativistic
precession of the orbit of Mercury?)
But eccentricity modulates the effect of
precession (the alignment of perihelion and aphelion with solstices or equinoxes)(actually, obliquity does modulate this too, but while obliquity variations have significant effect by themselves, they are relatively small in proportion to the difference with zero obliquity, whereas Earth's eccentricity variations include getting near zero, where aphelion and perihelion would have no effect as they wouldn't exist.
I saw of graph of the
precession cycle once and it appeared to occasionally skip a beat — perhaps when eccentricity got near zero — this makes some intuitive sense at least... (cause of Obliquity cycle is less obvious than
precession of axis; perhaps some contribution comes from the Earth - Moon orbit and Earth + Moon — Sun orbit
not being in the same plane — although the Moon's orbit will «average» near the plane of the Earth - Sun orbit over a relatively short time, but there's lunar orbit eccentricity, etc,... residuals might build up...?
PS
Precession cycles continue to affect low - latitude monsoons even when the Earth is
not vascillating between ice ages and interglacials.
Re my: (solar or lunar - driven
precession itself can't (approximately) happen at those times when the sun or moon cross the equatorial plane)... refering specifically to the component of
precession that is wobbling of the Earth's angular momentum vector in an inertial reference frame; another component comes from shifting of the semimajor axis.
During periods of low eccentricity, such as about 400,000 years ago and during the next 100,000 years, seasonal insolation changes induced by
precession are
not as large as during periods of larger eccentricity (Box TS.6, Figure 1).
[Response: Because the match between sediment core fluctuations and the obliquity /
precession cycles has been well established using cores that are *
not * orbitally tuned.
And, orbital tuning won't create exactly the * combination * of frequencies (as is clearest with
precession cycles) that match the astronomical cycles.
For example, average insolation on the 21st day of June at 65 -
N has 80 % of its variance at the
precession periods (1/21 ky + / - 1/100 ky).
The caloric summer half - year at 65 -
N, defined as the energy received during the half of the year with the greatest insolation intensity (4), also has more than half its variance in the
precession bands.
Oleg Sorokhtin of the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Ocean Studies, and many other Russian scientists maintain that global climate depends predominantly on natural factors, such as solar activity,
precession (wobbling) of the Earth's axis, changes in ocean currents, fluctuations in saltiness of ocean surface water, and some other factors, whereas industrial emissions do
not play any significant role.
Apsidal
precession, which you describe, isn't quite that simple.
For the life of me I just can
not fathom why this rather normal, half -
precession cycle old interglacial will
not continue in perpetuity.
and instantaneously compute that this is
not only unprecedented at a half
precession cycle old interglacial, but +0.6 meters is a whopping order of magnitude more than +6.0 meters http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@sci/@eesc/documents/doc/uow045009.pdf
For a completely carbon - dioxide - free reconstruction of the Vostok temperatures since 450 000 years refer to O. G. Sorokhtin (references on card
n ° 7) chapter 4.4 pp. 180 - 190
Precession Cycles and the Earth Climate: it explains in detail and computes the quick de-glaciations observed by G.Roe and by Lisiecki & Raymo, with all the «saw - teeth».
«The
precession of perihelion therefore is causing
not only the nature of the seasons to alter, through the intensity of the sunlight arriving at the Earth changing for corresponding times of year, but also the lengths of the seasons are varying for the same reason.
tallbloke says: August 7, 2011 at 2:15 pm If this guy has found the missing 40 ″ / cy that le Verier didn't account for within the Newtonian framework then both Newton and Einstein can accurately determine the
precession of the Perihelion of Mercury.
Which obliquity peaks induce interglacials and which do
not is straightforwardly predictable from
precession and eccentricity.
Not only that, but from Milankovitch cycles it was expected to be warmer than now because the precession phase did not favor Arctic sea i
Not only that, but from Milankovitch cycles it was expected to be warmer than now because the
precession phase did
not favor Arctic sea i
not favor Arctic sea ice.
Graph A is completely different and shows tidal effects on earth that are
not subject to planetary
precessions and is far more accurate in my opinion of maintaining a more precise longer lasting 60 year period.
The synodic period of Jupiter and Saturn does
not vary with planet
precession although their perihelion positions will vary over time producing a minor change.
He doesn't identify eccentricity as such in the title of the paper, but it is there in his orbital forcing model, as the amplitude modulation of
precession, and needed for his model to work.
Given that current low orbital eccentricity will persist over the next tens of thousand years, the effects of
precession are minimised, and extremely cold northern summer orbital configurations like that of the last glacial initiation at 116 ka will
not take place for at least 30 kyr (Box 6.1).
Might the «weather» of orbital cycles be impacted by K / T but
not the «climate» — perhaps the trajectories of obliquity,
precession and eccentricity would become completely different given sufficient time, but maybe with the same general character — periods and amplitudes and average values being similar enough that a casual glance at any given time segment (on the necessary scale to characterize the orbital cycle «climate») wouldn't look like anything different.
Precession:
Precession does
not describe how tilted the Earth's axis is, but rather the direction of its axis.
The former phrase, but
not the latter, seems necessarily to point to a level of
precession capable of being expressed in numbers, because probability is expressed in numbers.