UMaine researchers have also
noted an increase in warmer - water species that are turning up in local fishermen's nets, including red hake, turbot, squid, black sea bass, blue crab, butterfish, longfin squid, summer flounder, yellowtail flounder, sea horses and ocean sunfish.
Not exact matches
Neither the World Economic Forum
in its Global Risk Report nor the International Monetary Fund
in its World Economic Outlook have recognized the potential that
increased warming in the Arctic poses, the authors
note.
Land - use changes over the past 250 years
in Europe have been huge, yet, they only caused a relatively small temperature
increase, equal to roughly 6 % of the
warming produced by global fossil fuel burning, Naudts
noted.
Also, he
notes, if the waters were
warm, the turtles» revved - up metabolisms and
increased activity would likely have consumed the oxygen
in their bloodstream at an exceedingly high rate.
Warmer climates could also bring more humans to the seashore for relief, Bangley
notes, which is probably more likely to be connected to any
increase in beach - related injuries than the sharks.
Climate forecasts have long
noted that every
increase in global temperature heightens the odds of runaway global
warming, beyond any human control.
That is a situation that may well change as the climate
warms further,
in particular with an
increase in the frequency of extreme weather, such as droughts, the authors
note.
Gore indicated that it is primarily Hurricane intensities which scientists largely agree should be expected to
increase in association with
warming surface temperatures, and specifically
notes that
The insufficient observational coverage has also been
noted by the IPCC AR4 and by Gillett et al. (Nature Geoscience, 2008), who argue that the observed
warming in the Arctic and Antarctic are not consistent with internal climate variability and natural forcings alone, but are directly attributable to
increased GHG levels.
It is to be
noted here that there is no necessary contradiction between forecast expectations of (a) some renewed (or continuation of) slight cooling of world climate for a few decades to come, e.g., from volcanic or solar activity variations; (b) an abrupt
warming due to the effect of
increasing carbon dioxide, lasting some centuries until fossil fuels are exhausted and a while thereafter; and this followed
in turn by (c) a glaciation lasting (like the previous ones) for many thousands of years.»
And
note in addition that
in addition to the
warming, there are strong trends toward decreasing rainfall across the Antipodean continent, which are backed up by tragically decreased river and stream flows, severe water restrictions
in most states (starting to ease
in some places due to recent floods), and a significantly
increased farmer suicide rate.
Note, this is separate from the highly debated issue of whether global
warming has led to a significant
increase in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes since the 1970s.
Do you think that
in the same way that the Solanki et al paper on solar sunspot reconstructions had a specific statement that their results did not contradict ideas of strong greenhouse
warming in recent decades, this (the fact that climate sensitivity projections are not best estimates of possible future actual temperature
increases) should be clearly
noted in media releases put out by scientists when reporting climate sensitivity studies?
Conversely I
note that if CO2 directly causes
warming as you appear to be claiming, the fact that ice cores show that temperatures
increased about 800 years before a CO2
increase (and a latter decline
in temperatures before CO2 levels declined) casts doubt upon CO2 as a driver.
Higher clouds are an expected effect of
warming, and to first order, independent of GCRs — see ftp://eos.atmos.washington.edu/pub/breth/papers/2007/Zhu-etal-LowCldClimSens-JGR-2007.pdf
Note the
increase in high clouds (Fig2b3) and decrease
in low clouds (Fig2e1) downwind of S America
in the equatorial trade winds..
Note also that there appears — already started — to be a likely
increase in drought frequency with atmospheric
warming and associated acceleration of the hydrologic cycle, assuming continued greenhouse gas emissions.
«While La Niña [conditions
in 2011] had a large role to play
in the failure of the rains
in East Africa, there is evidence that
warming in the western Pacific — Indian Ocean
warm pool has contributed to an
increased frequency of droughts
in this region,» the researchers
note.
You'll
note an acceleration of those temperatures
in the late 1970s as greenhouse gas emissions from energy production
increased worldwide and clean air laws reduced emissions of pollutants that had a cooling effect on the climate, and thus were masking some of the global
warming signal.
I
note that Hansen's 1988 predictions are a true test of the most important question
in the global
warming question — that of what is the climate / temperature sensitivity to
increases / doubling of CO2 and other GHGs.
I
note the
increasing frequency of papers which either seek to deny / explain the observed 21st century pause / cessation
in warming, either through uncertainty or observation error.
I will
note that this is also a very different level of certainty from the «it is likely that
increased CO2 will lead to sufficient
warming to cause problems for humanity and ecosystems», which I will posit is likely, but if CO2 went up to 600 ppm and temperatures
in 2100 only
increased by a degree or so, I would be very surprised but would not feel like the laws of physics had been repealed.
Even though some of the CMIP models produce a lot of global
warming, all of them are still stable
in this regard, with net
increases in lost radiation with
warming (
NOTE: If analyzing the transient CMIP runs where CO2 is
increased over long periods of time, one must first remove that radiative forcing
in order to see the
increase in radiative loss).
«Even if one assumes that the relationships between climatic variables and mortality used
in this study are valid,» Goklany concludes, «considering the cumulative effect of the shortcomings
noted above, the methodologies and assumptions used by the WHO inevitably exaggerate the future mortality
increases attributed to global
warming, perhaps several-fold.»
Scientists have
noted that these changes are consistent with the
increase in temperatures of the Arctic as a result of global
warming.
First, WORC
noted that an
increase in greenhouse gas emissions would ultimately occur, contributing to global
warming, stating that «Exporting 140 million tons a year would produce roughly 280 million tons of CO2 per year.»
Christy is correct to
note that the model average
warming trend (0.23 °C / decade for 1978 - 2011) is a bit higher than observations (0.17 °C / decade over the same timeframe), but that is because over the past decade virtually every natural influence on global temperatures has acted
in the cooling direction (i.e. an extended solar minimum, rising aerosols emissions, and
increased heat storage
in the deep oceans).
Note also, having aerosols a cooling means that your relationship between CO2 and temperature
in the ice - cores is blown away; dust levels
increase by three orders of magnitude going from
warming to cooling, and dust changes occur before temperature changes, which occur before CO2 changes.
The very same paper may also make
note of CO2's
warming influence, and on possible outcomes if atmospheric CO2 continues to
increase in the future.
On the matter of global climate change, APS
notes that virtually all reputable scientists agree with the following observations: Carbon dioxide is
increasing in the atmosphere due to human activity; Carbon dioxide is an excellent infrared absorber, and therefore, its
increasing presence
in the atmosphere contributes to global
warming; and The dwell time of carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere is hundreds of years.
«Hulme et al. (2001)
noted that throughout the twentieth century, Africa has
warmed at a rate of 0.5 °C century − 1 and from 1987 to 1998, the six
warmest years
in Africa's temperature record occurred with
increasing intensity making 1998 the
warmest.
In regards to the first question, J. Stroeve (personal communication) notes that in the present warmer climate state, the tendency for a negative AO winter pattern to promote increased transport of ice into the western Beaufort / Chukchi seas — a pattern that historically has helped to reduce summer ice loss — actually enhances summer ice los
In regards to the first question, J. Stroeve (personal communication)
notes that
in the present warmer climate state, the tendency for a negative AO winter pattern to promote increased transport of ice into the western Beaufort / Chukchi seas — a pattern that historically has helped to reduce summer ice loss — actually enhances summer ice los
in the present
warmer climate state, the tendency for a negative AO winter pattern to promote
increased transport of ice into the western Beaufort / Chukchi seas — a pattern that historically has helped to reduce summer ice loss — actually enhances summer ice loss.
The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change
noted in a 2008 report that
increasing green carbon stores through reforestation and preservation efforts has great potential to combat global
warming.
Trenberth
notes that global
warming has already
increased the average amount of water vapor
in the atmosphere by about 4 %, «extra moisture flowing into the storms that produced the heavy rains and likely contributed to the strength of the storms through added energy.»
The instabilities
in the climate system and the movement from global
warming to global heating kicks
in above 350 ppm, so that as the ppm
increase, mitigation opportunities are lost and catastrophic harms on an even grander grand scale (as
noted by Mike) will continue to occur to human and other life forms.
In 25 years of global
warming hype, why hasn't one article
noted that it will
increase the number of beach days?
Dr. Kenner attacks the notion that extreme weather has
increased in the past 15 years, or that Global
Warming will cause in increase in extreme weather, noting, «If anything, global warming theory predicts less extreme weather.
Warming will cause
in increase in extreme weather,
noting, «If anything, global
warming theory predicts less extreme weather.
warming theory predicts less extreme weather.»
''... with regard to the IPCC claim that «the
increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (including CO2) is the driving force for climate
warming,» they
note the following four problems:
This was the generally accepted idea, but it's important to
note that the
increase in sea ice extent does not necessarily contradict global
warming.
Warming cloud feedbacks —
note the large
increase in SW forcing — are a small fraction of that at best.
Note 1: A simple hotspot explanation summarized from this article:
Increasing CO2 levels causes atmosphere to
warm; then atmosphere causes Earth's surface to
warm;
warming of oceans cause evaporation;
increased evaporation leads to more water vapor
in the upper troposphere; water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas that
warms the atmosphere even more (positive water vapor feedback); the Earth's surface
warms even more; and then auto «repeat and rinse» until Earth's oceans boil, per an «expert.»
What we have just proven is that for any isolated gas,
in the absence of a source of external work —
note that I do not care
in this proof how or why the initial state of the gas with some sort of thermal lapse came about, whether or not there is gravity present or absent, whether or not the gas is a mixture or pure — if we move a dollop of heat from where it is
warmer (cooling it) to where it is cooler (
warming it) we
increase the entropy of the Universe and such a fluctuation
in the state of the gas is irreversible.
Note that whenever «
warm» proxies drop out it tends to decrease the average immediately after that, and when «cool» proxies drop out there's an
increase in the average immediately after that.
You'll
note that the dude is clueless («Since surface temperature ncreased significantly from 1976 to 1998, one would expect the deep ocean to
warm too, not because it's absorbing additional heat but because of the that
increase in surface temperature.
(
Note, however, that to the extent that positive cloud feedbacks on GHG - mediated forcing mediate a reduction
in cloud cover, the amplification will substitute some SW effects for LW effects due to the reduced cloud greenhouse
warming and
increased warming from a lower albedo).
As I
noted last week, there is a new article
in Nature that tries very hard to prove that CO2
increased prior to the
warming at the onset of the current interglacial which is known as the Holocene.
Soloman and her co-authors argue that El Niño has been one of the drivers of changes
in stratospheric water vapor,
noting that «The drop
in stratospheric water vapor observed after 2001 has been correlated to sea surface temperature (SST)
increases in the vicinity of the tropical «
warm pool» which are related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).»
Note that you would have to
increase the ocean temperature a lot to get 100 ppm of CO2 as we have
in the past century, so we can be sure it is not ocean -
warming alone that can account for this (beside the acidification being the wrong sign for the ocean to be the source).
Go look at the following Wikipedia page on the Maunder Minimum starting
in about 1645 and lasting about 50 years
noting the clear correlation between the minimal sunspot activity at the time with lower temperatures, and then look at the chart there showing the enormous
increase in average sunspot activity commencing
in about 1945 so just starting
in and lasting through the exact same time frame of temperature
increases that
Warmers especially point to as evidence for their thesis.
Note that the
increase near the surface is significantly larger, with most of the
warming being
in the first 700 meters.
A drying of the atmosphere — that the researchers
note — takes place
in the subtropical subsidence zone (the 30 degrees latitude) but expands towards the 30 - 45 degrees latitude — Earth's Meditteranean climates, where their model suggests net cloud cover would actually decrease most (see dotted line
in first image
in this article, at top)-- most notably around 500 hPa (roughly translating to a height of around 5 kilometers of altitude
in the troposphere) decreasing albedo and
increasing solar heat absorption, therefore net climate
warming.