For any assumed distribution
of parameter values, a method
of producing 5 — 95 %
uncertainty ranges can be tested by drawing a large
number of samples
of possible
parameter values from that distribution, and for each drawing a measurement at random according to the measurement
uncertainty distribution and estimating a range for the
parameter.
For this reason, the proxies must be «calibrated» empirically, by comparing their measured variability over a
number of years with available instrumental records to identify some optimal climate association, and to quantify the statistical
uncertainty associated with scaling proxies to represent this specific climate
parameter.