The study uses a large
number of proxy data sets to create a global temperature mean they call G7 spanning the last 2000 years.
Results for all methods were compared by using both a «frozen» network (7 — 9, 13) consisting only of proxies available back to at least A.D. 1000 and a «stepwise» approach (15, 16) that makes use of the increasing
numbers of proxy data that become available as time progresses.
Not exact matches
It is not a perfect analogy but — except,
of course, for the part in which analyses that use the
number of bookshops as a
proxy for literacy are widely ridiculed — it is nonetheless similar to what happens when the health
of the Chinese economy is measured by the reported GDP
data, or when second - order measures, such as the dependence
of Chinese growth on debt, is estimated by looking at credit growth in relation to GDP growth.
According to latest
data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the
number of households,
proxied by occupied housing units, fell in the first quarter
of 2018 to just under 120 million, i.e. growth
of less than 1 % on a year - on - year basis.
The small but growing
number of shareholder votes on diversity proposals is on pace to match or exceed the record set last year, according to
data compiled by ISS Analytics, which tracks
proxies.
Researchers used the
data to calculate the
number of years lost due to ill health, disability, or early death — a
proxy for estimating total disease burden — and found that 320,000 disability - adjusted life years are lost annually in West Africa as a result
of snake bites.
This analysis also shows how the Pell Grant
proxy could be more accurate than
data on student and family incomes for measuring the
number of low - income students in institutions
of higher education.
c now determine suggested
number of EOFs in training c based on rule N applied to the
proxy data alone c during the interval t > iproxmin (the minimum c year by which each
proxy is required to have started, c note that default is iproxmin = 1820 if variable c
proxy network is allowed (latest begin date c in network) c c we seek the n first eigenvectors whose eigenvalues c exceed 1 / nproxy» c c nproxy» is the effective climatic spatial degrees
of freedom c spanned by the
proxy network (typically an appropriate c estimate is 20 - 40)
[Response: At the time (late 1990s), most
of the
data in the archives had been collected in the 1980s or even earlier, and so the
number of proxies decreased rapidly after 1980.
The reconstruction all the way back to the year 1400 used 22
proxy data series, although some
of the 22 were combinations
of larger
numbers of proxy series by a method known as «principal components analysis» (hereafter called «PCA» — see here).
The IPCC range, on the other hand, encompasses the overall uncertainty across a very large
number of studies, using different methods all with their own potential biases and problems (e.g., resulting from biases in
proxy data used as constraints on past temperature changes, etc.) There is a
number of single studies on climate sensitivity that have statistical uncertainties as small as Cox et al., yet different best estimates — some higher than the classic 3 °C, some lower.
For each comment comes a reply, and in the M&M responses, they introduce a
number of further complications and focus on the quality
of some
of the
proxies that were input
data into the MBH methodology.
Since then, a
number of new
proxies and seafloor coring and drilling projects have produced a wealth
of additional
data.
Since 1999, there have been many independent reconstructions
of past temperatures, using a variety
of proxy data and a
number of different methodologies.
These
data were compiled from a
number of different regions and
proxies.
Mann includes at this site a large
number of temperature
proxy data series.
All 73
of their
proxies cover the time span 5500 to 4500 BP (calendar years -3550 to -2550), but as time marches forward the
number of proxies which still have
data dwindles, especially toward the end
of the reconstruction (1940) by which time only 18
proxies remain.
First
of all, it should be noted that PCA was used in
data pre-processing to reduce large sub-networks
of tree - ring
proxies to a manageable
number of representative principal components, which were then combined with other
proxies in the final reconstruction.
There are a
number of different types
of proxy data types in this group including glacial deposits, glacial erosional features, shoreline features, aeolian deposits, lake sediments, relict soil deposits, and speleothems (depositional features like stalactites and stalagmites).
What is missing in all this is whether the higher order PC's that would have been derived from the red noise
proxies, and included in the full PCA, would have eliminated the hockey stick shape in the full representation
of the
data, using the correct
number of PC's.
My concern about the Marcott et al paper is that the use
of a relatively small
number of paleo
proxies (each capable
of only providing localised information) implies that any inference for global trends is based on very low resolution
data, both spatially and temporally.
Such
proxy material as tree rings can not be as accurate as instrumental records or detailed reconstructions using a variety
of observational material - but there are nevertheless a
number of obvious consequences that those who debate climate as either «realists» or «sceptics» need to face when considering this
data;
The relationship between
proxies and temperature is weak and the
number of proxies is far larger than the
number of target
data points.»
Both casual relationships are operative at all times: In the 19th and 20th centuries, the temperature - driving CO2 causal relationship amplified the original temperature effect, as one
of several factors leading to a net positive feedback on temperature due to CO2 increase, and a climate sensitivity
of about 3C for a doubling
of CO2 — a
number verified multiple times by calculation from
proxy data from multiple epochs in Earths prehistoric past.
In fact, if the
number of proxies equals the
number of data points, RE2 will be 1.
(Given the large
number of sites that have been rejected as temperature
proxies, I'd guess that the correlation test was done on detrended
data.)
A similar problem occurs in the
data base
of Loehle and McCulloch 2008: Most
of the last 2000 years is represented by 18
proxies, but this
number falls off on both ends.
Climate change on earth is unlikely to come anywhere near either end
of that silly continuum, but
proxy data already demonstrate a
number of absolutist dynamic trends.
Since the TAR, a
number of additional
proxy data syntheses based on annually or near - annually resolved
data, variously representing mean NH temperature changes over the last 1 or 2 kyr, have been published (Esper et al., 2002; Crowley et al., 2003; Mann and Jones, 2003; Cook et al., 2004a; Moberg et al., 2005; Rutherford et al., 2005; D'Arrigo et al., 2006).
The point
of all this is that Alexi's assertion, «I have proven to you with layman
numbers that you have no
data of adequate quality from past
proxies, therefore your argument is false, and can not be used», is false.
Therefore, in addition to basic demographic variables (eg, maternal education, age) the investigators included variables from the national
data set that they believed to be «
proxies» for stress (eg,
number of moves in past 2 years,
number of children in the home, receiving public assistance) and social isolation (eg,
number of adults in the home).