These models focus on small
numbers of aerosol properties or processes.
But they have been serious about controlling their work ever since
a number of their aerosol tableaus were photographed — without their permission — for a book and an... read more... «David Gonzalez and the rights of graffiti muralists»
We must remember that are
a number of aerosol sources that produce particles of this size (about 100 nm or 0.1 micron), including anthropogenic ones.
Increased
numbers of aerosols provide additional locations for droplet nucleation and, all else being equal, result in clouds with more and smaller droplets hence being more reflective to solar radiation (a cooling effect).
The degree of spatial heterogeneity can be seen by considering the aerosol optical depth for
a number of aerosol species as shown by model results in Figure 4 - 1.
The loss processes for
the number of aerosols (deposition and coagulation with bigger particles) are stronger when they're very small.
Not exact matches
Collected materials include (please note, these are estimates, the final
numbers are provided by Hazardous Waste Contractor): 13,644 gallons
of paint 2800 pounds
of Aerosols 660 gallons
of flammable liquids 1650 pounds
of pesticides 825 gallons
of corrosive materials 220 gallons
of oxidizers 960 gallons
of waste oil 175 gallons
of antifreeze Plus mercury, batteries, and gas!
The
aerosols create additional seeds around which water vapor can condense, boosting the
number of cloud droplets and making the cloud more reflective.
The researchers» next steps are to specify the size
of the
aerosols as well as quantify the
number of droplets released, Deike said.
The results show for the first time for a
number of natural compounds, which together account for around 70 per cent
of the biological hydrocarbon emissions, how much each compound produces low - volatility products and how they can possibly affect the climate via producing
aerosol particles.
By adjusting elements
of the test, such as the air exchange rate, which is the
number of times per hour indoor air is replaced by outdoor air, as well as the concentrations
of terpene and ozone in the chamber, the group was able to ascertain how those variables each affected the formation
of secondary organic
aerosols.
A team
of scientists led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory atmospheric researcher Dr. Susannah Burrows and collaborator Daniel McCoy, who studies clouds and climate at the University
of Washington, reveal how tiny natural particles given off by marine organisms — airborne droplets and solid particles called
aerosols — nearly double cloud droplet
numbers in the summer, which boosts the amount
of sunlight reflected back to space.
The various techniques have been used to confer the existence
of significant relations between the
number of Sunspots and different terrestrial climate parameters such as rainfall, temperature, dewdrops,
aerosol and ENSO etc..
Aldrin et al produce a
number of (explicitly Bayesian) estimates, their «main» one with a range
of 1.2 ºC to 3.5 ºC (mean 2.0 ºC) which assumes exactly zero indirect
aerosol effects, and possibly a more realistic sensitivity test including a small Aerosol Indirect Effect of 1.2 - 4.8 ºC (mean 2
aerosol effects, and possibly a more realistic sensitivity test including a small
Aerosol Indirect Effect of 1.2 - 4.8 ºC (mean 2
Aerosol Indirect Effect
of 1.2 - 4.8 ºC (mean 2.5 ºC).
The
number of sulphuric
aerosols is also influenced by the availability
of sulphur in general.
The large scatter suggests that the
number of ultra-small
aerosols is fairly weakly affected by the
number of ions — otherwise all the points would lie close to the diagonal line.
There are an ever increasing
number of these «indirect effects», but the two most discussed are the
aerosol / cloud opacity interaction (more
aerosols provide more sites for water to condense in clouds, thus cloud droplets are smaller and clouds become more opaque), and the cloud lifetime effect (smaller droplets make it more difficult to make drops big enough to rain, and so clouds live longer).
If sulfate
aerosols nucleate cloud drops, resulting in a greater
number of smaller droplets rather than a few large ones, this will further increase scattering and cooling.
Over even longer time scales (hundreds
of years) there are a
number of paleo - records that correlate with records
of cosmogenic isotopes (particularly 10Be and 14C), however, these records are somewhat modulated by climate processes themselves (the carbon cycle in the case
of 14C,
aerosol deposition and transport processes for 10Be) and so don't offer an absolutely clean attribution.
This imbalance is really an important quantity — estimates
of how much warming is in the «pipeline», the size
of the
aerosol cooling effect etc. all depend on knowing what this
number is.
So go ahead and guess the
number of corporate - media references to ongoing geoengineering
aerosols sponging up the remaining moisture over North America's gasping western seaboard...
It's true they could have inserted more
aerosols, less forcing or done any
number of things before that.
Explaining global surface
aerosol number concentrations in terms
of primary emissions and particle formation.
These vary by a factor
of about three (1.5 ° to 4.5 °C for a doubling
of CO2), so we can assume that whatever
numbers the models are using for
aerosols, they vary by a factor
of three as well.
To evaluate the global effects
of aerosols on the direct radiative balance, tropospheric chemistry, and cloud properties
of the earth's atmosphere requires high - precision remote sensing that is sensitive to the
aerosol optical thickness, size istribution, refractive index, and
number density.
Given our very short and spotty data on the relative abundance (or importance)
of the majority
of these
aerosols, and given our very poor understanding
of the direct, indirect, and side effects
of the majority
of these
aerosols, any
numbers that anyone generates about their abundance, importance, or total radiative forcing are going to be a SWAG.
And even if they had a good handle on the effects
of aerosol concentrations, no one agrees on the actual
numbers for
aerosol concentrations or production.
Climate models that include these
aerosol - cloud interactions fail to include a
number of buffering responses, such as rainfall scavenging
of the
aerosols and compensating dynamical effects (which would reduce the magnitude
of the aci cooling effect).
The parameterization
of the interactions are at all levels; from estimation
of the geometric characterization
of the
aerosols, to the
numbers of particles, to connections with several important aspects
of clouds, and finally to the interactions with radiative energy transport.
«When eruptions are powerful enough to reach the stratosphere (18 km or more above the surface at the equator), these sulphate
aerosols can stay aloft for a
number of years and have a strong cooling effect on the climate.»
Sun spot count is very questionable per Lief Svalgaard and volcanic
aerosols could impact the accuracy
of earlier sun spot
numbers.
Our model's sensitivity has varied over the years as a function
of a
number of issues — and we have not adjusted our
aerosol forcings to match.
It is found that with a
number concentration
of aerosol particles
of ∼ 102 — 103 cm − 3 (which corresponds to the
aerosol density in the deposited layer
of about 1 — 10 mg / m2 with the layer thickness along the ray path
of about 100 m) the solar radiation attenuation with artificial
aerosol layers accounts for 1 to 10 %.
The problems
of the environment and development are interrelated — biodiversity, population, land use changes and emissions
of different gases and
aerosols across a
number of sectors.
It amazes me on a daily basis the
number of educated professional intelligent people who flat out refuse to even consider the possibility that
aerosols are being released in the sky above our heads.
A
number of climate modeling studies support their finding [Santer et al, 2006; Booth et al, 2012; Evan, 2012; Dunstone et al, 2013], though the precise role that anthropogenic
aerosols have played in recent decades continues to be debated in the literature [Koch et al, 2011; Carslaw et al, 2013; Stevens, 2013].»
However, given that the CAGW position doesn't rest on specific
numbers, but is instead an unorganized collection
of anecdotal evidence, coupled with heavily - tweaked computer models, unfounded assumptions about positive feedbacks, and a healthy imagination about possible future disasters, a lower warming
number for the 20th century will simply be brushed over with claims about
aerosols being stronger than previously thought, more warming still waiting in the «pipeline» or similar ad hoc «explanations» that keep the overall story alive.
temperature, other climatic variables, and concentrations
of aerosols and trace gases; and (2) making raw and processed atmospheric measurements accessible in a form that enables a
number of different groups to replicate and experiment with the processing
of the more widely disseminated data sets such as the MSU tropospheric temperature record.
2) There are errors in the assumed forcings, such as: a) AR5 let stratospheric
aerosol concentration go to zero after 2000 (a sure way to prod the models into higher predictions), but it actually increased for the next 10 years «probably due to a large
number of small volcanic eruptions».
• biological
aerosol seeding
of clouds (phytoplankton and forests releasing isoprenes, Lovelock, Makarieva / Gorshkov), • and the «biotic pump hypothesis» (Makarieva / Gorshkov) •... among others... In addition, AGW - theory advocates systematically downplay the
number and contribution
of damping / stabilizing (or «negative») feedbacks (both
of heat and CO2) in the global climate system — most implicated directly or indirectly with the activities
of life, as illustrated in point # 3.
As we (and a
number of other mainstream news outlets) reported, Robert Kaufmann and colleagues analysed the impact
of growing coal use, particularly in China, and the cooling effect
of the sulphate
aerosol particles emitted into the atmosphere.
In particular, increases in the
number of small particles (called
aerosols) in the atmosphere regionally offset and mask the greenhouse effect, and stratospheric ozone depletion contributes to cooling
of the upper troposphere and stratosphere.fr2], fr3]
Based on Monte Carlo simulations and considering experimental designs with a fixed budget for the
number of simulations that modeling centers can perform, the most accurate estimate
of historical greenhouse gas — induced warming is obtained with a design using a combination
of all - forcings, natural forcings — only, and
aerosol forcing — only simulations.
Let's also say the contribution from
aerosols is zero (it should be some small negative
number since they were increasing, and the net effect
of aerosols is cooling, but we'll ignore for this analysis).
a) decreases («dimming») until the 1980s, because atmospheric pollutants (
aerosols) make the atmosphere more reflective and also clouds, by increasing the
number of water droplets in the clouds, which in turn increases the amount
of sunlight reflected, and subsequent
In this way the CCN measures activated ambient
aerosol particle
number concentration as a function
of supersaturation.
The size and concentration
of aerosol particles is also
of great importance for the
number of cloud drops, which in turn influences the reflection characteristics
of clouds.
The indirect
aerosol effect may include increased cloud brightness, as
aerosols lead to a larger
number of smaller cloud droplets (the so - called Twomey effect), and increased cloud cover, as smaller droplets inhibit rainfall and increase cloud lifetime.
An increase in
aerosols of similar hygroscopicity leads to an increase in cloud droplet
number concentration that reduces the precipitation efficiency for warm clouds.
The authors examine various potential causes
of aerosol increases and identify a
number of small volcanoes over the last decade as the most plausible source.